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What happens to a coin in the week after a crash day?

Short answer

Across 5,397 cases since 2017, the typical move for a coin in the week after a crash day was −2.1%. 58% of the cases ended lower. The best tenth gained +16.3% or better and the worst tenth −20.3% or worse. Over 704 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−2.1%

over the next 7 days, the middle case

How often

58%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+16.3%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−20.3%

or worse

Cases

5,397

2017-2026, on 727 days

Higher 41% of the time against 44% on ordinary days (704 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.

5,397 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern5,397 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a day the coin fell at least 3 times its usual daily move over the 60 days before, and at least 5%, and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 5,397 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later.

In our data that gives 5,397 measured cases on 727 separate days, from Dec 22, 2017 to Sep 30, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A crash day, a fall several times the coin's usual daily move, often comes with forced exits. One reason traders watch the next days is the idea that panic overshoots and partly snaps back.

That is the reasoning behind watching crash days; whether it held over our 5,397 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • We measured each of the 5,397 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 704 of the 727 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 5,397 cases fall on 727 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of crash days within 7 days counts once, so no two of the 5,397 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results1841 up · 2075 down

Results

as of · every past case, Dec 22, 2017 to Sep 30, 2026

Of the 5,397 cases, 1,841 ended up, 2,075 down and 1,481 sideways (within ±4.1%) a week later; the middle case −2.1%, the average day −1.00%.

Every drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 1841 cases ended up, 2075 down, 1481 sideways; the typical move −2.1%−50.0%0%+50.0%+100.0%FET · Sep 24, 2019 · FET −24.1% that day · −8.3% a week laterEOS · Sep 3, 2020 · EOS −15.7% that day · +6.3% a week laterALICE · May 19, 2021 · ALICE −41.7% that day · +11.9% a week laterBEL · Sep 7, 2021 · BEL −25.2% that day · +6.0% a week laterEOS · Dec 4, 2021 · EOS −17.1% that day · +8.5% a week laterHNT · Apr 30, 2022 · HNT −16.4% that day · +13.6% a week laterTKO · May 9, 2022 · TKO −13.5% that day · −32.6% a week laterWAXP · Sep 13, 2022 · WAXP −11.6% that day · −5.6% a week laterPEOPLE · Nov 8, 2022 · PEOPLE −22.6% that day · +21.0% a week laterOMG · Jan 30, 2023 · OMG −9.8% that day · +21.2% a week laterFTM · Jun 5, 2023 · FTM −10.9% that day · −15.8% a week laterPOWR · Jun 10, 2023 · POWR −12.2% that day · +1.2% a week laterUMA · Oct 19, 2023 · UMA −12.5% that day · +10.2% a week laterWAVES · Nov 21, 2023 · WAVES −12.0% that day · +11.5% a week laterSTEEM · Mar 16, 2024 · STEEM −9.9% that day · −1.1% a week laterRARE · Apr 12, 2024 · RARE −17.8% that day · −7.9% a week laterBAL · Jul 1, 2024 · BAL −13.2% that day · −6.7% a week laterQUICK · Aug 5, 2024 · QUICK −11.2% that day · +9.6% a week laterENJ · Dec 9, 2024 · ENJ −21.4% that day · +2.0% a week laterXPLA · Dec 9, 2024 · XPLA −14.8% that day · +8.5% a week laterKONET · Feb 25, 2025 · KONET −20.5% that day · −11.9% a week laterTWT · Apr 6, 2025 · TWT −11.7% that day · +8.2% a week laterDINGO · Aug 10, 2025 · DINGO −28.2% that day · +106.7% a week laterFET · Oct 9, 2025 · FET −11.5% that day · −44.3% a week laterCYBER · Oct 10, 2025 · CYBER −35.1% that day · +6.3% a week laterLINGO · Oct 10, 2025 · LINGO −13.4% that day · −3.7% a week laterSAFE · Oct 10, 2025 · SAFE −22.9% that day · −4.0% a week laterBUY · Oct 12, 2025 · BUY −29.6% that day · +0.34% a week laterSPARKLET · Nov 21, 2025 · SPARKLET −6.2% that day · −1.7% a week laterIDOL · Jan 27, 2026 · IDOL −15.0% that day · +2.7% a week laterCHESS · Feb 2, 2026 · CHESS −20.6% that day · −53.9% a week laterHOOK · Feb 5, 2026 · HOOK −13.6% that day · +2.0% a week laterSYS · Feb 5, 2026 · SYS −15.8% that day · +18.1% a week laterLIGHT · Mar 24, 2026 · LIGHT −41.2% that day · −27.4% a week laterLA · May 1, 2026 · LA −11.7% that day · +4.1% a week laterETHFI · Jun 2, 2026 · ETHFI −13.2% that day · −9.0% a week laterPOWR · Jun 5, 2026 · POWR −8.6% that day · −1.0% a week laterQRL · Jul 8, 2026 · QRL −13.9% that day · +25.6% a week laterAPEX · Aug 14, 2026 · APEX −8.9% that day · +24.5% a week laterTA · Sep 11, 2026 · TA −10.5% that day · +10.1% a week later−2.1%typicalits day's close+7 days40 of 5,397 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 1841 cases ended up, 2075 down, 1481 sideways; the typical move −2.1%−50.0%0%+50.0%+100.0%−2.1%its day's close+7 days40 of 5,397 cases, each its own line

ended up (1841)ended down (2075)sideways, within ±4.1% (1481)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day5,428
734 days		−0.49%−0.23%46%47%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days this post5,397
727 days		−2.1%−1.5%41%44%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days4,742
661 days		−6.2%−6.3%38%39%no clear edge over ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.49% over 5,428 cases; 30 days, typical −6.2% over 4,742 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −6.0% in 2018 to +1.1% in 2020; 7 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.

By market cap: large caps +0.99% over 275 cases; mid caps +1.6% over 392 cases; small caps −0.86% over 1,275 cases; micro caps −2.5% over 3,455 cases.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2018 −6.0% over 29 cases; 2019 +0.90% over 69 cases; 2020 +1.1% over 210 cases; 2021 −1.4% over 342 cases; 2022 −5.4% over 612 cases; 2023 −3.0% over 587 cases; 2024 −1.3% over 803 cases; 2025 −2.1% over 1263 cases; 2026 −2.1% over 1481 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2018 · 29 cases · typical −6.0% · higher 33% · lower 67% · on 9 days2018292019 · 69 cases · typical +0.90% · higher 50% · lower 50% · on 15 days2019692020 · 210 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 49% · lower 51% · on 19 days20202102021 · 342 cases · typical −1.4% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 21 days20213422022 · 612 cases · typical −5.4% · higher 25% · lower 75% · on 40 days20226122023 · 587 cases · typical −3.0% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 77 days20235872024 · 803 cases · typical −1.3% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 101 days20248032025 · 1,263 cases · typical −2.1% · higher 44% · lower 56% · on 201 days20251,2632026 · 1,481 cases · typical −2.1% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 243 days20261,481Typical move by year: 2018 −6.0% over 29 cases; 2019 +0.90% over 69 cases; 2020 +1.1% over 210 cases; 2021 −1.4% over 342 cases; 2022 −5.4% over 612 cases; 2023 −3.0% over 587 cases; 2024 −1.3% over 803 cases; 2025 −2.1% over 1263 cases; 2026 −2.1% over 1481 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2018 · 29 cases · typical −6.0% · higher 33% · lower 67% · on 9 days2018292019 · 69 cases · typical +0.90% · higher 50% · lower 50% · on 15 days2019692020 · 210 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 49% · lower 51% · on 19 days20202102021 · 342 cases · typical −1.4% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 21 days20213422022 · 612 cases · typical −5.4% · higher 25% · lower 75% · on 40 days20226122023 · 587 cases · typical −3.0% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 77 days20235872024 · 803 cases · typical −1.3% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 101 days20248032025 · 1,263 cases · typical −2.1% · higher 44% · lower 56% · on 201 days20251,2632026 · 1,481 cases · typical −2.1% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 243 days20261,481
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20171+15.4%100%0%
201829−6.0%33%67%
201969+0.90%50%50%
2020210+1.1%49%51%
2021342−1.4%40%60%
2022612−5.4%25%75%
2023587−3.0%41%59%
2024803−1.3%45%55%
20251,263−2.1%44%56%
20261,481−2.1%41%59%

By market cap on the day

Coins worthCasesTypical moveHigherLower
over $5B large caps275+0.99%50%50%
$500M to $5B mid caps392+1.6%48%52%
$50M to $500M small caps1,275−0.86%47%53%
under $50M micro caps3,455−2.5%41%59%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
FLYFLY −20.0% that dayopenopenopen
XPRTXPRT −50.7% that day+0.17%openopen
MNDEMNDE −24.8% that day+5.0%openopen
MINAMINA −23.7% that day−9.8%openopen
CELLCELL −17.2% that day−3.9%openopen
SUNDOGSUNDOG −22.4% that day+0.82%openopen
RIONRION −5.9% that day−8.4%openopen
CERECERE −8.4% that day+1.5%openopen
ALPHALPH −22.9% that day+15.1%openopen
MIUMIU −30.4% that day−14.1%openopen

10 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Oct 14, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from crash days at 7 days, so the 5,397 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

No clear edge: 41% of 704 days ended higher against 44% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (38% to 45%).

The typical move of −2.1% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−20.3% to +16.3%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from crash days have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 5,397 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

The older half of the days leaned −5 points against ordinary days and the newer half +1 point: the pattern has not been stable over time.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 5,397 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what crash days did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a coin end lower in the week after a crash day?
  • In 58% of 5,397 cases from Dec 22, 2017 to Sep 30, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 41% against 44% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move over the next 7 days?
  • The middle case moved −2.1% over the next 7 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +16.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −20.3% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 5,397 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −2.1% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 7, 2026: FLY −20.0% that day.
  • Its 7-day window closes on Oct 14, 2026.
Did it work the same every year?
No. The typical move was +1.1% in 2020 (210 cases) and −6.0% in 2018 (29 cases).