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What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a close below the 200-day average?

Short answer

Across 4,656 cases since 2018, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a close below the 200-day average was −5.2%. It ended lower 60% of the time. The best tenth gained +33.3% or better and the worst tenth −28.8% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−5.2%

over the next 30 days, the middle case

How often

60%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+33.3%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−28.8%

or worse

Cases

4,656

2018-2026, on 1,192 days

Higher 40% of the time against 44% on ordinary days (1,192 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.

4,656 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern4,656 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a close below the 200-day average after a close above it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 4,656 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.

In our data that gives 4,656 measured cases on 1,192 separate days, from Mar 10, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 11, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A close below the 200-day average after time above it is read as a weakening trend, and some funds use it as a rule to step aside.

That is the reasoning behind watching 200-day breaks; whether it held over our 4,656 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • Every one of the 4,656 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,192 of the 1,192 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 4,656 cases fall on 1,192 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of 200-day breaks within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 4,656 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results1329 up · 2105 down

Results

as of · every past case, Mar 10, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026

Of the 4,656 cases, 1,329 ended up, 2,105 down and 1,222 sideways (within ±8.3%) 30 days later; the middle case −5.2%, the average day +1.2%.

Every drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 1329 cases ended up, 2105 down, 1222 sideways; the typical move −5.2%−50.0%0%+50.0%IOST · Feb 25, 2020 · IOST −9.2% that day · −43.5% 30 days laterBTS · Sep 23, 2020 · BTS −9.0% that day · −15.8% 30 days laterBEAM · Jan 27, 2021 · BEAM −2.2% that day · +48.1% 30 days laterMKR · Jun 21, 2021 · MKR −22.4% that day · +16.5% 30 days laterMKR · Sep 7, 2021 · MKR −15.7% that day · −18.0% 30 days laterDGB · Nov 12, 2021 · DGB −6.7% that day · −41.4% 30 days laterCTSI · Jan 15, 2022 · CTSI −5.1% that day · −33.9% 30 days laterSNX · Jul 29, 2022 · SNX −2.2% that day · −26.5% 30 days laterBNB · Dec 12, 2022 · BNB −2.9% that day · +3.2% 30 days laterZRX · Feb 6, 2023 · ZRX −1.5% that day · −11.8% 30 days laterROSE · Mar 8, 2023 · ROSE −6.7% that day · +13.0% 30 days laterPEOPLE · Apr 19, 2023 · PEOPLE −10.1% that day · −19.3% 30 days laterONT · May 8, 2023 · ONT −8.0% that day · −4.6% 30 days laterOGN · Jul 24, 2023 · OGN −22.8% that day · −15.5% 30 days laterMDX · Nov 1, 2023 · MDX −2.8% that day · +1.7% 30 days laterPORTO · Dec 15, 2023 · PORTO −4.2% that day · +10.1% 30 days laterASTR · Apr 12, 2024 · ASTR −13.5% that day · −21.3% 30 days laterXEM · Apr 13, 2024 · XEM −14.7% that day · −1.4% 30 days laterACM · Jun 7, 2024 · ACM −5.8% that day · −31.7% 30 days laterJTO · Jul 22, 2024 · JTO −8.1% that day · −11.1% 30 days laterBRETT · Oct 25, 2024 · BRETT −11.9% that day · +82.0% 30 days laterFLM · Nov 17, 2024 · FLM −4.5% that day · +32.1% 30 days laterPORTO · Dec 18, 2024 · PORTO −8.4% that day · −6.6% 30 days laterAUDIO · Jan 13, 2025 · AUDIO −4.6% that day · −23.5% 30 days laterIOST · Jan 28, 2025 · IOST −7.2% that day · −19.0% 30 days laterSUI · Feb 27, 2025 · SUI −3.3% that day · −17.1% 30 days laterOG · Jun 12, 2025 · OG −2.4% that day · +1.6% 30 days laterSTORJ · Jul 23, 2025 · STORJ −7.7% that day · −8.2% 30 days laterALCH · Aug 24, 2025 · ALCH −14.1% that day · −35.1% 30 days laterBGSC · Sep 19, 2025 · BGSC −4.6% that day · −73.4% 30 days laterAVAX · Oct 10, 2025 · AVAX −27.1% that day · −14.1% 30 days laterBR · Nov 16, 2025 · BR −2.8% that day · −13.4% 30 days laterGLM · Jan 20, 2026 · GLM −8.3% that day · −22.3% 30 days laterATM · Mar 20, 2026 · ATM −2.2% that day · −2.3% 30 days laterRSC · May 3, 2026 · RSC −7.3% that day · −29.3% 30 days laterPENDLE · May 19, 2026 · PENDLE −6.5% that day · −18.3% 30 days laterPEAQ · Jun 22, 2026 · PEAQ −7.2% that day · −10.5% 30 days laterJUP · Jul 27, 2026 · JUP −5.4% that day · +21.1% 30 days laterMOODENG · Aug 22, 2026 · MOODENG −8.7% that day · +7.9% 30 days laterANKR · Sep 4, 2026 · ANKR −2.3% that day · +18.4% 30 days later−5.2%typicalits day's close+30 days40 of 4,656 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 1329 cases ended up, 2105 down, 1222 sideways; the typical move −5.2%−50.0%0%+50.0%−5.2%its day's close+30 days40 of 4,656 cases, each its own line

ended up (1329)ended down (2105)sideways, within ±8.3% (1222)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day7,182
1,441 days		+0.12%−0.12%49%48%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days7,058
1,434 days		−0.53%−0.69%46%47%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days this post4,656
1,192 days		−5.2%−4.4%40%44%no clear edge over ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.12% over 7,182 cases; 7 days, typical −0.53% over 7,058 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −15.6% in 2022 to +11.0% in 2020; 8 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.

By market cap: large caps +0.50% over 297 cases; mid caps −1.2% over 446 cases; small caps −5.7% over 1,293 cases; micro caps −7.6% over 2,620 cases.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2018 −5.9% over 4 cases; 2019 −6.7% over 41 cases; 2020 +11.0% over 220 cases; 2021 −0.87% over 471 cases; 2022 −15.6% over 268 cases; 2023 −0.72% over 814 cases; 2024 −6.0% over 877 cases; 2025 −10.2% over 1047 cases; 2026 −4.6% over 914 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2018 · 4 cases · typical −5.9% · higher 0% · lower 100% · on 4 days201842019 · 41 cases · typical −6.7% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 28 days2019412020 · 220 cases · typical +11.0% · higher 62% · lower 38% · on 82 days20202202021 · 471 cases · typical −0.87% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 112 days20214712022 · 268 cases · typical −15.6% · higher 29% · lower 71% · on 129 days20222682023 · 814 cases · typical −0.72% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 200 days20238142024 · 877 cases · typical −6.0% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 176 days20248772025 · 1,047 cases · typical −10.2% · higher 31% · lower 69% · on 232 days20251,0472026 · 914 cases · typical −4.6% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 229 days2026914Typical move by year: 2018 −5.9% over 4 cases; 2019 −6.7% over 41 cases; 2020 +11.0% over 220 cases; 2021 −0.87% over 471 cases; 2022 −15.6% over 268 cases; 2023 −0.72% over 814 cases; 2024 −6.0% over 877 cases; 2025 −10.2% over 1047 cases; 2026 −4.6% over 914 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2018 · 4 cases · typical −5.9% · higher 0% · lower 100% · on 4 days201842019 · 41 cases · typical −6.7% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 28 days2019412020 · 220 cases · typical +11.0% · higher 62% · lower 38% · on 82 days20202202021 · 471 cases · typical −0.87% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 112 days20214712022 · 268 cases · typical −15.6% · higher 29% · lower 71% · on 129 days20222682023 · 814 cases · typical −0.72% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 200 days20238142024 · 877 cases · typical −6.0% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 176 days20248772025 · 1,047 cases · typical −10.2% · higher 31% · lower 69% · on 232 days20251,0472026 · 914 cases · typical −4.6% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 229 days2026914
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20184−5.9%0%100%
201941−6.7%42%58%
2020220+11.0%62%38%
2021471−0.87%45%55%
2022268−15.6%29%71%
2023814−0.72%46%54%
2024877−6.0%42%58%
20251,047−10.2%31%69%
2026914−4.6%39%61%

By market cap on the day

Coins worthCasesTypical moveHigherLower
over $5B large caps297+0.50%50%50%
$500M to $5B mid caps446−1.2%48%52%
$50M to $500M small caps1,293−5.7%41%59%
under $50M micro caps2,620−7.6%37%63%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
SKLSKL −2.4% that dayopenopenopen
ALLOALLO −2.2% that dayopenopenopen
SRXSRX −0.0% that day+0.02%openopen
SOSOSOSO −4.4% that day−1.1%openopen
HGPTHGPT −5.0% that day−0.84%openopen
TRXTRX −0.3% that day−0.33%openopen
ELIZAOSELIZAOS −24.2% that day−10.5%openopen
ZILZIL −3.0% that day+6.2%openopen
ZEREBROZEREBRO −3.7% that day+1.3%openopen
XANXAN −5.9% that day+6.2%openopen

10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 10, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from 200-day breaks at 30 days, so the 4,656 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

No clear edge: 40% of 1,192 days ended higher against 44% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (37% to 43%).

The typical move of −5.2% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−28.8% to +33.3%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from 200-day breaks have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 4,656 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

The older half of the days leaned 0 points against ordinary days and the newer half −7 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 4,656 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what 200-day breaks did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a close below the 200-day average?
  • In 60% of 4,656 cases from Mar 10, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 40% against 44% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move over the next 30 days?
  • The middle case moved −5.2% over the next 30 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +33.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −28.8% or less.
Is this an edge?
  • Not on its own: over 4,656 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −5.2% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When was the latest case?
  • The latest was on Oct 11, 2026: SKL −2.4% that day.
  • Its 30-day window closes on Nov 10, 2026.
Does it depend on the year?
No. The typical move was +11.0% in 2020 (220 cases) and −15.6% in 2022 (268 cases).