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What happens to a micro-cap coin in the 30 days after a close below the 200-day average?

Short answer

The middle case of 2,834 since 2019 saw a micro-cap coin move −7.5% in the 30 days after a close below the 200-day average. Lower was the outcome 63% of the time. The best tenth gained +32.8% or better and the worst tenth −32.5% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−7.5%

over the next 30 days, the middle case

How often

63%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+32.8%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−32.5%

or worse

Cases

2,834

2019-2026, on 963 days

Higher 37% of the time against 42% on ordinary days (963 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.

2,834 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern2,834 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a close below the 200-day average after a close above it, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 2,834 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.

In our data that gives 2,834 measured cases on 963 separate days, from Apr 13, 2019 to Sep 28, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 29, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A close below the 200-day average after time above it is read as a weakening trend, and some funds use it as a rule to step aside.

That is the reasoning behind watching 200-day breaks; whether it held over our 2,834 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • Every one of the 2,834 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 963 of the 963 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 2,834 cases fall on 963 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of 200-day breaks within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 2,834 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results750 up · 1365 down

Results

as of · every past case, Apr 13, 2019 to Sep 28, 2026

Of the 2,834 cases, 750 ended up, 1,365 down and 719 sideways (within ±8.5%) 30 days later; the middle case −7.5%, the average day −0.60%.

Every drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 750 cases ended up, 1365 down, 719 sideways; the typical move −7.5%−50.0%0%+50.0%BNT · Sep 20, 2020 · BNT −5.2% that day · +4.7% 30 days laterCOS · May 19, 2021 · COS −37.4% that day · −0.67% 30 days laterBEL · Aug 23, 2021 · BEL −1.9% that day · −36.3% 30 days laterSTRAX · Oct 27, 2021 · STRAX −9.7% that day · +4.5% 30 days laterPOLS · Jan 10, 2022 · POLS −7.1% that day · −12.5% 30 days laterDOCK · Sep 13, 2022 · DOCK −2.7% that day · −30.4% 30 days laterRVN · Jan 21, 2023 · RVN −3.7% that day · +15.5% 30 days laterALPINE · Feb 25, 2023 · ALPINE −1.7% that day · −30.4% 30 days laterHIVE · Mar 21, 2023 · HIVE −5.5% that day · +4.7% 30 days laterARDR · May 1, 2023 · ARDR −3.9% that day · −13.0% 30 days laterWAVES · Jun 28, 2023 · WAVES −9.3% that day · +1.8% 30 days laterC98 · Oct 27, 2023 · C98 −1.1% that day · +14.2% 30 days laterCTK · Nov 27, 2023 · CTK −4.2% that day · +64.4% 30 days laterTROY · Feb 10, 2024 · TROY −2.1% that day · +36.5% 30 days laterQUICK · Apr 13, 2024 · QUICK −15.0% that day · −5.5% 30 days laterQKC · May 29, 2024 · QKC −2.3% that day · −32.8% 30 days laterTOKEN · Jun 23, 2024 · TOKEN −5.6% that day · −7.4% 30 days laterDIMO · Oct 24, 2024 · DIMO −17.1% that day · +2.7% 30 days laterMTL · Nov 17, 2024 · MTL −7.8% that day · +11.7% 30 days laterACM · Dec 18, 2024 · ACM −8.2% that day · −4.9% 30 days laterSUKU · Dec 29, 2024 · SUKU −5.3% that day · −12.6% 30 days laterFLM · Jan 19, 2025 · FLM −11.2% that day · −34.8% 30 days laterPOWR · Feb 2, 2025 · POWR −10.0% that day · −16.5% 30 days laterNUX · May 6, 2025 · NUX −3.8% that day · −43.8% 30 days laterACH · Jul 23, 2025 · ACH −9.1% that day · −2.3% 30 days laterMLN · Aug 13, 2025 · MLN −5.1% that day · −10.3% 30 days laterAI · Sep 10, 2025 · AI −10.3% that day · −45.3% 30 days laterADX · Sep 25, 2025 · ADX −5.6% that day · −5.4% 30 days laterQANX · Oct 30, 2025 · QANX −4.6% that day · −21.4% 30 days laterALCH · Jan 2, 2026 · ALCH −10.1% that day · −27.4% 30 days laterATM · Feb 11, 2026 · ATM −18.1% that day · +5.4% 30 days laterCTSI · Apr 5, 2026 · CTSI −13.5% that day · −9.3% 30 days laterAIO · May 7, 2026 · AIO −1.3% that day · +11.4% 30 days laterAIDOGE · May 21, 2026 · AIDOGE −6.6% that day · −9.2% 30 days laterIDOL · Jun 20, 2026 · IDOL −24.8% that day · −31.8% 30 days laterROG · Jul 23, 2026 · ROG −26.2% that day · −3.7% 30 days laterHMSTR · Aug 16, 2026 · HMSTR −1.1% that day · −9.1% 30 days laterGME · Aug 28, 2026 · GME −13.5% that day · +17.7% 30 days laterHDN · Sep 12, 2026 · HDN −10.2% that day · −15.6% 30 days laterZRC · Sep 23, 2026 · ZRC −20.5% that day · −12.6% 30 days later−7.5%typicalits day's close+30 days40 of 2,834 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 750 cases ended up, 1365 down, 719 sideways; the typical move −7.5%−50.0%0%+50.0%−7.5%its day's close+30 days40 of 2,834 cases, each its own line

ended up (750)ended down (1365)sideways, within ±8.5% (719)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day4,420
1,179 days		−0.19%−0.16%49%48%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days4,366
1,173 days		−1.2%−0.99%44%46%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days this post2,834
963 days		−7.5%−5.2%37%42%higher less often than on ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.19% over 4,420 cases; 7 days, typical −1.2% over 4,366 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −17.5% in 2022 to +8.9% in 2020; 5 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2020 +8.9% over 80 cases; 2021 +1.1% over 228 cases; 2022 −17.5% over 135 cases; 2023 −1.4% over 461 cases; 2024 −9.7% over 549 cases; 2025 −13.2% over 635 cases; 2026 −5.5% over 744 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2020 · 80 cases · typical +8.9% · higher 59% · lower 41% · on 45 days2020802021 · 228 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 85 days20212282022 · 135 cases · typical −17.5% · higher 18% · lower 82% · on 83 days20221352023 · 461 cases · typical −1.4% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 159 days20234612024 · 549 cases · typical −9.7% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 145 days20245492025 · 635 cases · typical −13.2% · higher 26% · lower 73% · on 213 days20256352026 · 744 cases · typical −5.5% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 231 days2026744Typical move by year: 2020 +8.9% over 80 cases; 2021 +1.1% over 228 cases; 2022 −17.5% over 135 cases; 2023 −1.4% over 461 cases; 2024 −9.7% over 549 cases; 2025 −13.2% over 635 cases; 2026 −5.5% over 744 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2020 · 80 cases · typical +8.9% · higher 59% · lower 41% · on 45 days2020802021 · 228 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 85 days20212282022 · 135 cases · typical −17.5% · higher 18% · lower 82% · on 83 days20221352023 · 461 cases · typical −1.4% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 159 days20234612024 · 549 cases · typical −9.7% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 145 days20245492025 · 635 cases · typical −13.2% · higher 26% · lower 73% · on 213 days20256352026 · 744 cases · typical −5.5% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 231 days2026744
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20192−13.2%0%100%
202080+8.9%59%41%
2021228+1.1%46%54%
2022135−17.5%18%82%
2023461−1.4%46%54%
2024549−9.7%39%61%
2025635−13.2%26%73%
2026744−5.5%37%63%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
POKTPOKT −20.5% that dayopenopenopen
PIPEPIPE −13.6% that dayopenopenopen
IMPTIMPT −5.2% that dayopenopenopen
STEEMSTEEM −2.7% that day+1.7%openopen
IXSIXS −48.5% that day+18.0%openopen
COQCOQ −3.8% that day+0.92%openopen
QANXQANX −8.0% that day−5.6%openopen
PNGPNG −1.8% that day−1.4%openopen
ORDERORDER −13.9% that day−6.7%openopen
NAVXNAVX −4.2% that day+1.1%openopen

10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 27, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from 200-day breaks at 30 days, so the 2,834 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (37% against 42% over 963 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

The typical move of −7.5% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−32.5% to +32.8%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from 200-day breaks have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 2,834 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 2,834 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what 200-day breaks did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a micro-cap coin end lower in the 30 days after a close below the 200-day average?
  • In 63% of 2,834 cases from Apr 13, 2019 to Sep 28, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 37% against 42% on each coin's own ordinary days.
What was the typical move?
  • The middle case moved −7.5% over the next 30 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +32.8% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −32.5% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 2,834 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −7.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When was the latest case?
  • The latest was on Oct 28, 2026: POKT −20.5% that day.
  • Its 30-day window closes on Nov 27, 2026.
Did it work the same every year?
No. The typical move was +8.9% in 2020 (80 cases) and −17.5% in 2022 (135 cases).