Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a governance vote?
Short answer
1,352 cases since 2022: in the middle one, a coin moved −4.5% in the 30 days after a governance vote. 57% of the cases ended lower. The best 1 in 10 reached +35.0% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −30.4% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−4.5%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+35.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−30.4%
or worse
Cases
1,352
2022-2026, on 904 days
Higher 43% of the time against 41% on ordinary days (882 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,352 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day a governance vote on the coin's Snapshot space closed, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,352 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 1,352 measured cases on 904 separate days, from Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 23, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 25, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A governance vote can change what a protocol charges, its emissions or its treasury. Traders watch votes that hand value to holders, and whether the result was already priced in before the vote closed.
That is the reasoning behind watching governance votes; whether it held over our 1,352 cases since 2022 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 1,352 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 882 of the 904 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,352 cases fall on 904 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results426 up · 593 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 23, 2026
Of the 1,352 cases, 426 ended up, 593 down and 333 sideways (within ±8.5%) 30 days later; the middle case −4.5%, the average day +0.76%.
ended up (426)ended down (593)sideways, within ±8.5% (333)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1,356 907 days | 0.00% | −0.12% | 49% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,354 906 days | −1.1% | −0.97% | 47% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 1,352 904 days | −4.5% | −6.7% | 43% | 41% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical 0.00% over 1,356 cases; 7 days, typical −1.1% over 1,354 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −14.9% in 2025 to +0.18% in 2024; 4 of 5 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −1.6% over 102 cases; mid caps −4.1% over 835 cases; small caps −5.0% over 275 cases; micro caps −15.0% over 140 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 413 | −9.5% | 37% | 62% |
| 2023 | 474 | −2.0% | 46% | 54% |
| 2024 | 322 | +0.18% | 48% | 52% |
| 2025 | 115 | −14.9% | 32% | 68% |
| 2026 | 28 | −4.6% | 48% | 52% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 102 | −1.6% | 47% | 52% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 835 | −4.1% | 43% | 57% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 275 | −5.0% | 44% | 56% |
| under $50M micro caps | 140 | −15.0% | 35% | 65% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRK | Should Starknet become an independent post-quantum L1? | −13.7% | open | open | |
| ARB | Adopting USDG as a Core Strategic Initiative for the ArbitrumDAO | −8.7% | open | open | |
| GTC | [PROPOSAL] Update Snapshot Quorum from 2.5M to 1.5M GTC | +18.5% | +40.7% | open | |
| WLFI | Proposal: Launch $WLFI Governance Engagement Incentive Program | −3.6% | −6.1% | open | |
| UNI | Rotate Sentinel Addresses on the DUNI-Owned Uniswap Earn Vaults | −10.5% | −13.1% | −31.8% | |
| ARB | Banning projects identified in the high-severity Watchdog Program cases - APX Finance | +31.5% | +28.8% | +7.8% | |
| GTC | [Proposal]: Upgrade the Gitcoin Governor | +2.6% | +10.5% | +159.0% | |
| ARB | Arbitrum Security Program | −5.4% | +51.9% | +139.3% | |
| GTC | Gitcoin DAO 2026 Budget Request: Second Tranche | −7.3% | −8.2% | −6.5% | |
| ARB | [Constitutional] AIP: Ratification of Security Council Election Process Improvements | −7.8% | −14.1% | +9.9% |
4 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 21, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from governance votes at 30 days, so the 1,352 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 43% of 882 days ended higher against 41% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (39% to 46%).
A typical −4.5% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +35.0% and one in 10 beyond −30.4%.
Calls made from governance votes have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,352 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned −3 points against ordinary days and the newer half +6 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,352 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what governance votes did from 2022 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a governance vote?
- In 57% of 1,352 cases from Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 23, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 43% against 41% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved −4.5% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +35.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −30.4% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 1,352 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −4.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 22, 2026: STRK, Should Starknet become an independent post-quantum L1?.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 21, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +0.18% in 2024 (322 cases) and −14.9% in 2025 (115 cases).