Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a yearly high in Bybit longs while the price falls?
Short answer
902 cases since 2021: in the middle one, a coin moved −5.7% in the 30 days after a yearly high in Bybit longs while the price falls. It ended lower 62% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +31.6% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −27.7% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−5.7%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
62%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+31.6%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−27.7%
or worse
Cases
902
2021-2026, on 434 days
Higher 38% of the time against 42% on ordinary days (434 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern902 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a share of Bybit accounts long on the coin in the top 5% of its own past year of readings while our close fell 2% or more over the 3 days to the reading; counted from the close of the day after it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 902 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.
In our data that gives 902 measured cases on 434 separate days, from Oct 24, 2021 to Sep 21, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 23, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When more Bybit accounts are long a coin than on almost any day of its past year while its price has been falling, the crowd is leaning against the move and losing on it. One view is that those longs give up and add to the fall; another is that a crowd this keen to catch the dip is early to a turn.
That is the reasoning behind watching crowded Bybit longs in a fall; whether it held over our 902 cases since 2021 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 902 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 434 of the 434 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 902 cases fall on 434 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- A run of crowded Bybit longs in a fall within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 902 cases overlap.
§ 04 · Results228 up · 428 down
Results
as of · every past case, Oct 24, 2021 to Sep 21, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −5.7% and the average day at +0.01%; 228 cases ended up, 428 down and 246 sideways (within ±7.8%).
ended up (228)ended down (428)sideways, within ±7.8% (246)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1,482 544 days | +0.21% | −0.04% | 50% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,470 539 days | −0.48% | −0.61% | 46% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 902 434 days | −5.7% | −4.1% | 38% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.21% over 1,482 cases; 7 days, typical −0.48% over 1,470 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −11.1% in 2025 to −3.1% in 2023; 6 of 6 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −1.9% over 146 cases; mid caps −5.8% over 147 cases; small caps −7.8% over 430 cases; micro caps −8.0% over 179 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 | −8.9% | 17% | 83% |
| 2022 | 10 | −8.4% | 43% | 57% |
| 2023 | 355 | −3.1% | 40% | 60% |
| 2024 | 253 | −6.1% | 42% | 58% |
| 2025 | 151 | −11.1% | 23% | 77% |
| 2026 | 129 | −3.5% | 42% | 58% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 146 | −1.9% | 44% | 56% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 147 | −5.8% | 39% | 61% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 430 | −7.8% | 33% | 67% |
| under $50M micro caps | 179 | −8.0% | 34% | 66% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIO | BIO +4.5% that day | +2.1% | open | open | |
| ORDI | ORDI +0.8% that day | +3.9% | open | open | |
| XRP | XRP +1.0% that day | −0.23% | open | open | |
| SKL | SKL −7.4% that day | −3.4% | open | open | |
| PLUME | PLUME −4.1% that day | −1.2% | open | open | |
| NOT | NOT −5.1% that day | −3.3% | open | open | |
| MET | MET −6.0% that day | −3.8% | open | open | |
| SAFE | SAFE −6.1% that day | −2.9% | open | open | |
| GALA | GALA −0.5% that day | −3.6% | open | open | |
| DEXE | DEXE −1.1% that day | +0.57% | open | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 19, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from crowded Bybit longs in a fall at 30 days, so the 902 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 38% of 434 days ended higher against 42% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (33% to 42%).
The typical move of −5.7% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−27.7% to +31.6%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from crowded Bybit longs in a fall have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 902 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned +2 points against ordinary days and the newer half −11 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 902 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what crowded Bybit longs in a fall did from 2021 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a yearly high in Bybit longs while the price falls?
- In 62% of 902 cases from Oct 24, 2021 to Sep 21, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 38% against 42% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −5.7% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +31.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −27.7% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 902 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −5.7% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 20, 2026: BSV +2.6% that day.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 19, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was −3.1% in 2023 (355 cases) and −11.1% in 2025 (151 cases).