Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a TVL surge?
Short answer
Across 436 cases since 2020, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a TVL surge was −8.8%. Lower was the outcome 63% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +48.0% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −43.7% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−8.8%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
63%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+48.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−43.7%
or worse
Cases
436
2020-2026, on 363 days
Higher 36% of the time against 43% on ordinary days (307 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern436 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the protocol's locked value rose 20% or more and held (DefiLlama), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 436 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 436 measured cases on 363 separate days, from Jul 9, 2020 to Sep 20, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 21, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A jump of a fifth or more in locked value means money flowed into the protocol. Traders watch whether the token gains from the new use.
That is the reasoning behind watching TVL surges; whether it held over our 436 cases since 2020 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 436 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 307 of the 363 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 436 cases fall on 363 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results110 up · 210 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jul 9, 2020 to Sep 20, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −8.8% and the average day at +1.1%; 110 cases ended up, 210 down and 116 sideways (within ±11.6%).
ended up (110)ended down (210)sideways, within ±11.6% (116)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 442 368 days | −0.93% | −0.25% | 44% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 443 369 days | −2.2% | −1.1% | 42% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 436 363 days | −8.8% | −5.1% | 36% | 43% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.93% over 442 cases; 7 days, typical −2.2% over 443 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −17.6% in 2022 to +14.7% in 2020; 6 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −8.9% over 13 cases; mid caps −0.01% over 49 cases; small caps −8.6% over 107 cases; micro caps −12.1% over 267 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 17 | +14.7% | 52% | 48% |
| 2021 | 90 | −4.1% | 46% | 54% |
| 2022 | 55 | −17.6% | 24% | 76% |
| 2023 | 37 | −1.5% | 48% | 52% |
| 2024 | 65 | −13.4% | 29% | 71% |
| 2025 | 98 | −11.2% | 36% | 63% |
| 2026 | 74 | −10.7% | 34% | 65% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 13 | −8.9% | 29% | 71% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 49 | −0.01% | 46% | 50% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 107 | −8.6% | 41% | 59% |
| under $50M micro caps | 267 | −12.1% | 33% | 67% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | TVL rose 67% in a day | open | open | open | |
| DRV | TVL rose 31% in a day | −1.8% | open | open | |
| RSR | TVL rose 27% in a day | −5.7% | open | open | |
| GROVE | TVL rose 24% in a day | −0.87% | open | open | |
| STRK | TVL rose 24% in a day | −17.6% | −41.4% | open | |
| ORDER | TVL rose 36% in a day | +0.67% | open | open | |
| ZRO | TVL rose 49% in a day | +8.8% | +6.1% | open | |
| CHIP | TVL rose 39% in a day | +10.6% | +53.7% | open | |
| ANVL | TVL rose 49% in a day | −2.1% | −10.3% | open | |
| CAKE | TVL rose 451% in a day | −5.5% | −8.6% | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 19, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from TVL surges at 30 days, so the 436 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (36% against 43% over 307 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −8.8% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +48.0% and one in 10 beyond −43.7%.
Calls made from TVL surges have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 436 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 436 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what TVL surges did from 2020 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a TVL surge?
- In 63% of 436 cases from Jul 9, 2020 to Sep 20, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 36% against 43% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved −8.8% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +48.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −43.7% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 436 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −8.8% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 20, 2026: UNI, TVL rose 67% in a day.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 19, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +14.7% in 2020 (17 cases) and −17.6% in 2022 (55 cases).