Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after open interest building on Bybit while the price stays flat?
Short answer
Across 1,435 cases since 2021, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after open interest building on Bybit while the price stays flat was −4.6%. Lower was the outcome 59% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +32.1% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −27.1% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−4.6%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
59%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+32.1%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−27.1%
or worse
Cases
1,435
2021-2026, on 830 days
Higher 41% of the time against 38% on ordinary days (830 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,435 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a reading of the coin's open interest on Bybit (in coins) 15% or more above the reading 3 days before while our close moved less than 2% either way over the same days, with a year of both before it; counted from the close of the day after the reading, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,435 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.
In our data that gives 1,435 measured cases on 830 separate days, from Sep 13, 2021 to Sep 20, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 22, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When open interest on Bybit grows 15% in three days while the price barely moves, new leveraged positions are piling up without a move to show for it. One reason traders watch such build-ups is the idea that the leverage comes off sooner or later, and a forced unwind can move the price fast, in either direction.
That is the reasoning behind watching leverage build-ups on a flat price; whether it held over our 1,435 cases since 2021 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 1,435 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 830 of the 830 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,435 cases fall on 830 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- A run of leverage build-ups on a flat price within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 1,435 cases overlap.
§ 04 · Results434 up · 638 down
Results
as of · every past case, Sep 13, 2021 to Sep 20, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −4.6% and the average day at +0.84%; 434 cases ended up, 638 down and 363 sideways (within ±7.6%).
ended up (434)ended down (638)sideways, within ±7.6% (363)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1,869 936 days | +0.05% | −0.13% | 49% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,869 936 days | −0.89% | −1.3% | 44% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 1,435 830 days | −4.6% | −7.0% | 41% | 38% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.05% over 1,869 cases; 7 days, typical −0.89% over 1,869 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −10.6% in 2025 to −1.6% in 2026; 6 of 6 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −1.2% over 135 cases; mid caps −4.1% over 222 cases; small caps −5.4% over 726 cases; micro caps −8.2% over 352 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | −8.2% | 33% | 67% |
| 2022 | 77 | −7.5% | 39% | 61% |
| 2023 | 366 | −3.2% | 44% | 55% |
| 2024 | 257 | −1.7% | 47% | 53% |
| 2025 | 382 | −10.6% | 29% | 71% |
| 2026 | 350 | −1.6% | 46% | 54% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 135 | −1.2% | 48% | 52% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 222 | −4.1% | 40% | 60% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 726 | −5.4% | 41% | 59% |
| under $50M micro caps | 352 | −8.2% | 35% | 65% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JASMY | JASMY −1.8% that day | open | open | open | |
| KMNO | KMNO −0.8% that day | +4.3% | open | open | |
| WAL | WAL +51.7% that day | −13.1% | −32.6% | open | |
| VANA | VANA −4.4% that day | +0.49% | −9.3% | open | |
| LA | LA −6.3% that day | −0.17% | −0.34% | open | |
| CRO | CRO +1.0% that day | −1.9% | −2.5% | open | |
| KAVA | KAVA +1.2% that day | +0.87% | +4.2% | open | |
| ONT | ONT −3.4% that day | −7.6% | −15.9% | open | |
| FLOW | FLOW +4.9% that day | +5.0% | +3.3% | open | |
| BAT | BAT +31.7% that day | +4.8% | +45.5% | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 20, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from leverage build-ups on a flat price at 30 days, so the 1,435 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 41% of 830 days ended higher against 38% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (38% to 44%).
A typical −4.6% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +32.1% and one in 10 beyond −27.1%.
Calls made from leverage build-ups on a flat price have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,435 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,435 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what leverage build-ups on a flat price did from 2021 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after open interest building on Bybit while the price stays flat?
- In 59% of 1,435 cases from Sep 13, 2021 to Sep 20, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 41% against 38% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −4.6% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +32.1% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −27.1% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 1,435 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −4.6% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 21, 2026: JASMY −1.8% that day.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 20, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was −1.6% in 2026 (350 cases) and −10.6% in 2025 (382 cases).