Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a usage surge?
Short answer
Across 569 cases since 2017, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a usage surge was −0.82%. 51% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +50.4%, one in 10 worse than −33.9%. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−0.82%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
51%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+50.4%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−33.9%
or worse
Cases
569
2017-2026, on 440 days
Higher 50% of the time against 42% on ordinary days (389 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern569 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a week users paid its protocol 2 times their usual week (DefiLlama), dated two days after the week, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 569 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 569 measured cases on 440 separate days, from Aug 19, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 12, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When users pay a protocol twice their usual amount in a week, usage is surging. Traders watch whether real demand for the product shows up in its token.
That is the reasoning behind watching usage surges; whether it held over our 569 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 569 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 389 of the 440 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 569 cases fall on 440 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results202 up · 205 down
Results
as of · every past case, Aug 19, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −0.82% and the average day at +7.9%; 202 cases ended up, 205 down and 162 sideways (within ±9.8%).
ended up (202)ended down (205)sideways, within ±9.8% (162)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 579 447 days | +0.19% | −0.29% | 54% | 48% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 579 448 days | −1.1% | −1.5% | 49% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 569 440 days | −0.82% | −6.4% | 50% | 42% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.19% over 579 cases; 7 days, typical −1.1% over 579 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −13.3% in 2022 to +23.2% in 2020; 2 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +5.1% over 55 cases; mid caps +3.1% over 117 cases; small caps +1.3% over 188 cases; micro caps −7.7% over 209 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4 | +17.4% | 50% | 50% |
| 2018 | 2 | +8.2% | 50% | 50% |
| 2019 | 2 | +22.3% | 100% | 0% |
| 2020 | 9 | +23.2% | 78% | 22% |
| 2021 | 29 | +1.2% | 50% | 50% |
| 2022 | 27 | −13.3% | 42% | 58% |
| 2023 | 69 | +3.0% | 60% | 40% |
| 2024 | 110 | +2.7% | 53% | 45% |
| 2025 | 155 | −10.5% | 35% | 65% |
| 2026 | 162 | +0.85% | 51% | 49% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 55 | +5.1% | 59% | 39% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 117 | +3.1% | 57% | 43% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 188 | +1.3% | 52% | 48% |
| under $50M micro caps | 209 | −7.7% | 40% | 60% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STG | Usage up 2.1x: STG's protocol took $127k in a week | open | open | open | |
| EIGEN | Usage up 5.7x: EIGEN's protocol took $174k in a week | open | open | open | |
| ADA | Usage up 4.2x: ADA's protocol took $52k in a week | open | open | open | |
| AVNT | Usage up 2.5x: AVNT's protocol took $192k in a week | −0.57% | open | open | |
| VVV | Usage up 2.7x: VVV's protocol took $543k in a week | −0.17% | open | open | |
| ANKR | Usage up 6.5x: ANKR's protocol took $56k in a week | +6.6% | open | open | |
| SDL | Usage up 3.1x: SDL's protocol took $286k in a week | open | open | open | |
| MIN | Usage up 2.4x: MIN's protocol took $70k in a week | +8.2% | +6.9% | open | |
| SAUCE | Usage up 3.0x: SAUCE's protocol took $63k in a week | −5.5% | −16.3% | open | |
| SLP | Usage up 57.5x: SLP's protocol took $88k in a week | +1.5% | +3.3% | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 11, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from usage surges at 30 days, so the 569 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (50% against 42% over 389 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −0.82% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−33.9% to +50.4%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from usage surges have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 569 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 569 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what usage surges did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a usage surge?
- In 51% of 569 cases from Aug 19, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 50% against 42% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −0.82% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +50.4% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −33.9% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 569 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −0.82% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 12, 2026: STG, Usage up 2.1x: STG's protocol took $127k in a week.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 11, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +23.2% in 2020 (9 cases) and −13.3% in 2022 (27 cases).