Daily research · Coin events · written · updated
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?
Short answer
The middle case of 1,102 since 2025 saw a coin move −3.2% in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding. Lower was the outcome 57% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +39.7%, one in 10 worse than −30.4%. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−3.2%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+39.7%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−30.4%
or worse
Cases
1,102
2025-2026, on 242 days
Higher 43% of the time against 33% on ordinary days (242 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,102 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the first day of a run of perpetual funding in the lowest 5% of the coin's past year, below zero, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,102 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 1,102 measured cases on 242 separate days, from Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 12, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When perpetual funding sits at an extreme low, short positions are crowded and paying to stay open. A crowded short can be squeezed if the price turns up.
That is the reasoning behind watching funding lows; whether it held over our 1,102 cases since 2025 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 1,102 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 242 of the 242 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,102 cases fall on 242 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results306 up · 489 down
Results
as of · every past case, Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −3.2% and the average day at +1.3%; 306 cases ended up, 489 down and 307 sideways (within ±8.1%).
ended up (306)ended down (489)sideways, within ±8.1% (307)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1,169 269 days | −1.2% | −0.71% | 42% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,146 263 days | −1.6% | −2.8% | 41% | 41% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 1,102 242 days | −3.2% | −10.4% | 43% | 33% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −1.2% over 1,169 cases; 7 days, typical −1.6% over 1,146 cases.
By market cap: large caps +2.7% over 112 cases; mid caps +3.5% over 230 cases; small caps −5.2% over 406 cases; micro caps −11.7% over 354 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | −0.01% | 75% | 25% |
| 2026 | 1,098 | −3.2% | 43% | 57% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 112 | +2.7% | 57% | 43% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 230 | +3.5% | 57% | 43% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 406 | −5.2% | 40% | 59% |
| under $50M micro caps | 354 | −11.7% | 31% | 69% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMR | Funding -13% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| WAL | Funding -295% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| ETH | Funding -8% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| CKB | Funding -19% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| CFX | Funding -9% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| MAGIC | Funding -390% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| BAT | Funding -107% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| PEPE | Funding -30% a year: shorts paying longs | +6.6% | open | open | |
| PENDLE | Funding -9% a year: shorts paying longs | +4.3% | open | open | |
| LINK | Funding -4% a year: shorts paying longs | +4.2% | open | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 11, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from funding lows at 30 days, so the 1,102 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (43% against 33% over 242 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −3.2% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +39.7% and one in 10 beyond −30.4%.
Calls made from funding lows have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,102 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,102 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what funding lows did from 2025 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?
- In 57% of 1,102 cases from Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 43% against 33% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −3.2% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +39.7% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −30.4% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 1,102 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −3.2% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 12, 2026: XMR, Funding -13% a year: shorts paying longs.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 11, 2026.