Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a mid-cap coin in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?
Short answer
281 cases since 2025: in the middle one, a mid-cap coin moved +3.4% in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding. Higher was the outcome 56% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +36.7% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −22.2% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
+3.4%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
56%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+36.7%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−22.2%
or worse
Cases
281
2025-2026, on 144 days
Higher 56% of the time against 37% on ordinary days (144 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern281 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the first day of a run of perpetual funding in the lowest 5% of the coin's past year, below zero, on a coin worth $500M to $5B that day (mid caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 281 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 281 measured cases on 144 separate days, from Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 4, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When perpetual funding sits at an extreme low, short positions are crowded and paying to stay open. A crowded short can be squeezed if the price turns up.
That is the reasoning behind watching funding lows; whether it held over our 281 cases since 2025 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 281 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 144 of the 144 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 281 cases fall on 144 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results113 up · 93 down
Results
as of · every past case, Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at +3.4% and the average day at +8.1%; 113 cases ended up, 93 down and 75 sideways (within ±6.2%).
ended up (113)ended down (93)sideways, within ±6.2% (75)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 296 153 days | −0.24% | −0.59% | 43% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 292 151 days | +0.13% | −2.0% | 47% | 44% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 281 144 days | +3.4% | −7.9% | 56% | 37% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.24% over 296 cases; 7 days, typical +0.13% over 292 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | +9.0% | 100% | 0% |
| 2026 | 280 | +3.4% | 56% | 44% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAM | Funding -10% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| ETC | Funding -27% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| MNT | Funding -17% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| AAVE | Funding -2% a year: shorts paying longs | open | open | open | |
| STX | Funding -62% a year: shorts paying longs | +0.25% | open | open | |
| ATOM | Funding -79% a year: shorts paying longs | −4.3% | open | open | |
| ALGO | Funding -27% a year: shorts paying longs | −3.9% | open | open | |
| PEPE | Funding -72% a year: shorts paying longs | −1.2% | open | open | |
| SUI | Funding -8% a year: shorts paying longs | +1.4% | −5.2% | open | |
| TIA | Funding -25% a year: shorts paying longs | +2.3% | −11.2% | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Dec 4, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from funding lows at 30 days, so the 281 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a mid-cap coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (56% against 37% over 144 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +3.4% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−22.2% to +36.7%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from funding lows have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 281 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 281 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what funding lows did from 2025 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a mid-cap coin end higher in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?
- In 56% of 281 cases from Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 56% against 37% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved +3.4% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +36.7% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −22.2% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 281 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The +3.4% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Nov 4, 2026: GRAM, Funding -10% a year: shorts paying longs.
- Its 30-day window closes on Dec 4, 2026.