Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a token unlock of 0.5% to 2% of supply?
Short answer
Across 97 cases since 2025, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a token unlock of 0.5% to 2% of supply was −2.8%. It ended lower 56% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +35.9%, one in 10 worse than −38.9%. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−2.8%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
56%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+35.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−38.9%
or worse
Cases
97
2025-2026, on 74 days
Higher 44% of the time against 33% on ordinary days (66 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern97 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day of a scheduled release of locked tokens, sized as a share of the circulating supply, the unlock sized of 0.5-2% of supply (the share of the circulating supply on its day), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 97 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 97 measured cases on 74 separate days, from Feb 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 3, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A token unlock releases coins that early investors, the team or the treasury could not move before. Not all of it reaches the market, but traders expect some of it to, and some step aside ahead of a large release.
That is the reasoning behind watching unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply; whether it held over our 97 cases since 2025 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 97 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 66 of the 74 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 97 cases fall on 74 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results24 up · 37 down
Results
as of · every past case, Feb 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −2.8% and the average day at +10.9%; 24 cases ended up, 37 down and 36 sideways (within ±7.6%).
ended up (24)ended down (37)sideways, within ±7.6% (36)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 102 79 days | −0.69% | −0.67% | 40% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 101 78 days | −1.3% | −2.6% | 46% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 97 74 days | −2.8% | −9.6% | 44% | 33% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.69% over 102 cases; 7 days, typical −1.3% over 101 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −6.2% in 2025 to −1.5% in 2026; 2 of 2 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.48% over 1 cases; mid caps −3.1% over 50 cases; small caps −6.3% over 32 cases; micro caps +5.8% over 14 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32 | −6.2% | 39% | 61% |
| 2026 | 65 | −1.5% | 47% | 53% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 1 | −0.48% | 0% | 100% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 50 | −3.1% | 43% | 57% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 32 | −6.3% | 38% | 62% |
| under $50M micro caps | 14 | +5.8% | 64% | 36% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUI | SUI unlock: 20.77M tokens (0.50% of circulating) | −2.9% | open | open | |
| LMTS | LMTS unlock: 1.67M tokens (1.27% of circulating) | +2.5% | open | open | |
| SKR | SKR unlock: 99.93M tokens (1.39% of circulating), seen in the supply | −1.1% | −15.0% | open | |
| PUMP | PUMP unlock: 4,815.84M tokens (1.04% of circulating) | +14.4% | −2.8% | open | |
| APT | APT unlock: 11.36M tokens (1.30% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.24% | −1.9% | open | |
| ME | ME unlock: 3.75M tokens (0.61% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.24% | −7.0% | open | |
| SUI | SUI unlock: 21.73M tokens (0.53% of circulating) | −1.6% | −10.6% | −22.8% | |
| KCS | KCS unlock: 2.49M tokens (1.82% of circulating), seen in the supply | −1.1% | +2.4% | −4.3% | |
| FF | FF unlock: 21.94M tokens (0.94% of circulating) | −10.3% | −18.6% | −30.5% | |
| XCN | XCN unlock: 200.45M tokens (0.51% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.36% | +3.3% | +3.3% |
6 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Dec 1, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply at 30 days, so the 97 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 44% of 66 days ended higher against 33% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (33% to 56%).
A typical −2.8% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +35.9% and one in 10 beyond −38.9%.
Calls made from unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 97 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
With 97 cases, one case moves the share that ended lower by 1.0 points.
The older half of the days leaned −1 point against ordinary days and the newer half +23 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 97 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply did from 2025 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a token unlock of 0.5% to 2% of supply?
- In 56% of 97 cases from Feb 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 44% against 33% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved −2.8% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +35.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −38.9% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 97 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −2.8% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Nov 1, 2026: SUI unlock: 20.77M tokens (0.50% of circulating).
- Its 30-day window closes on Dec 1, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was −1.5% in 2026 (65 cases) and −6.2% in 2025 (32 cases).