Daily research · Coin events · written · updated
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a token unlock?
Short answer
Across 247 cases since 2023, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a token unlock was −6.2%. It ended lower 59% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +38.1% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −33.2% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−6.2%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
59%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+38.1%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−33.2%
or worse
Cases
247
2023-2026, on 163 days
Higher 39% of the time against 32% on ordinary days (146 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern247 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day of a scheduled release of locked tokens, sized as a share of the circulating supply, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 247 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 247 measured cases on 163 separate days, from Jun 1, 2023 to Sep 10, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 13, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A token unlock releases coins that early investors, the team or the treasury could not move before. Not all of it reaches the market, but traders often expect some of it to, and some step aside ahead of a large release.
That is the reasoning behind watching token unlocks; whether it held over our 247 cases since 2023 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 247 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 146 of the 163 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 247 cases fall on 163 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results63 up · 105 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jun 1, 2023 to Sep 10, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −6.2% and the average day at +6.5%; 63 cases ended up, 105 down and 79 sideways (within ±8.7%).
ended up (63)ended down (105)sideways, within ±8.7% (79)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 266 174 days | −0.23% | −0.67% | 46% | 44% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 265 172 days | −1.3% | −2.8% | 42% | 40% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 247 163 days | −6.2% | −10.2% | 39% | 32% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.23% over 266 cases; 7 days, typical −1.3% over 265 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −10.3% in 2025 to +3.5% in 2024; 3 of 4 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.48% over 1 cases; mid caps −4.6% over 103 cases; small caps −1.8% over 41 cases; micro caps −9.3% over 102 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7 | −5.8% | 43% | 57% |
| 2024 | 23 | +3.5% | 62% | 38% |
| 2025 | 88 | −10.3% | 33% | 66% |
| 2026 | 129 | −4.6% | 40% | 58% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 1 | −0.48% | 0% | 100% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 103 | −4.6% | 42% | 58% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 41 | −1.8% | 34% | 55% |
| under $50M micro caps | 102 | −9.3% | 35% | 65% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASK | MASK unlock: 3.40M tokens (3.40% of circulating) | −4.2% | open | open | |
| VELVET | VELVET unlock: 5.00M tokens (4.45% of circulating) | −10.6% | open | open | |
| MOVE | MOVE unlock: 164.58M tokens (3.66% of circulating), seen in the supply | +2.7% | open | open | |
| ME | ME unlock: 3.75M tokens (0.61% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.24% | −7.0% | open | |
| ZETA | ZETA unlock: 44.26M tokens (19.28% of circulating) | −6.4% | −11.2% | open | |
| SUI | SUI unlock: 21.73M tokens (0.53% of circulating) | −1.6% | −10.6% | open | |
| KCS | KCS unlock: 2.49M tokens (1.82% of circulating), seen in the supply | −1.1% | +2.4% | open | |
| IO | IO unlock: 12.79M tokens (3.22% of circulating), seen in the supply | −5.5% | −9.9% | open | |
| FF | FF unlock: 21.94M tokens (0.94% of circulating) | −10.3% | −18.6% | open | |
| SAFE | SAFE unlock: 7.73M tokens (1.00% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.46% | +0.04% | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 10, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from token unlocks at 30 days, so the 247 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 39% of 146 days ended higher against 32% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (32% to 47%).
The typical move of −6.2% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−33.2% to +38.1%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from token unlocks have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 247 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned −1 point against ordinary days and the newer half +15 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 247 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what token unlocks did from 2023 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did a coin usually end lower in the 30 days after a token unlock?
- In 59% of 247 cases from Jun 1, 2023 to Sep 10, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 39% against 32% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −6.2% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +38.1% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −33.2% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 247 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −6.2% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 11, 2026: MASK unlock: 3.40M tokens (3.40% of circulating).
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 10, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +3.5% in 2024 (23 cases) and −10.3% in 2025 (88 cases).