Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a token unlock worth a day or more of trading?
Short answer
The middle case of 114 since 2024 saw a coin move −5.8% in the 30 days after a token unlock worth a day or more of trading. 60% of the cases ended lower. The best 1 in 10 reached +34.6% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −29.9% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−5.8%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
60%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+34.6%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−29.9%
or worse
Cases
114
2024-2026, on 90 days
Higher 39% of the time against 30% on ordinary days (90 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern114 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day of a scheduled release of locked tokens worth 1 or more times the coin's average daily dollar volume over the 30 days to the close before it (the release's share of the circulating supply at that close's price), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 114 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 114 measured cases on 90 separate days, from Jun 1, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 31, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Most unlocks are small next to the trading in a coin. When the tokens released are worth a full day of its trading or more, the market may struggle to absorb them if many of the recipients cash out at once. That is the worry traders watch around large releases, though recipients can hold and the date is known ahead.
That is the reasoning behind watching unlocks bigger than a day's trading; whether it held over our 114 cases since 2024 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 114 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 90 of the 90 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 114 cases fall on 90 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results32 up · 45 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jun 1, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026
Of the 114 cases, 32 ended up, 45 down and 37 sideways (within ±8.7%) 30 days later; the middle case −5.8%, the average day −0.07%.
ended up (32)ended down (45)sideways, within ±8.7% (37)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 121 95 days | +0.44% | −0.71% | 51% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 121 95 days | −1.3% | −2.8% | 47% | 40% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 114 90 days | −5.8% | −10.6% | 39% | 30% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.44% over 121 cases; 7 days, typical −1.3% over 121 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −7.4% in 2025 to +11.1% in 2024; 2 of 3 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: mid caps −0.43% over 50 cases; small caps −5.9% over 31 cases; micro caps −11.4% over 33 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | +11.1% | 60% | 40% |
| 2025 | 27 | −7.4% | 25% | 75% |
| 2026 | 82 | −2.7% | 42% | 57% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 50 | −0.43% | 50% | 50% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 31 | −5.9% | 41% | 59% |
| under $50M micro caps | 33 | −11.4% | 23% | 73% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMTS | LMTS unlock: 1.67M tokens (1.27% of circulating) | open | open | open | |
| CRO | CRO unlock: 1,168.53M tokens (2.36% of circulating), seen in the supply | +0.93% | −4.6% | open | |
| MASK | MASK unlock: 3.40M tokens (3.40% of circulating) | −4.2% | −15.1% | open | |
| MOVE | MOVE unlock: 164.58M tokens (3.66% of circulating), seen in the supply | +2.7% | −17.0% | open | |
| WAL | WAL unlock: 53.54M tokens (2.09% of circulating), seen in the supply | +3.4% | +2.4% | open | |
| ZETA | ZETA unlock: 44.26M tokens (19.28% of circulating) | −6.4% | −11.2% | open | |
| KCS | KCS unlock: 2.49M tokens (1.82% of circulating), seen in the supply | −1.1% | +2.4% | open | |
| IO | IO unlock: 12.79M tokens (3.22% of circulating), seen in the supply | −5.5% | −9.9% | open | |
| XCN | XCN unlock: 200.45M tokens (0.51% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.36% | +3.3% | +3.3% | |
| SAFE | SAFE unlock: 7.73M tokens (1.00% of circulating), seen in the supply | −0.46% | +0.04% | −15.4% |
8 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 30, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from unlocks bigger than a day's trading at 30 days, so the 114 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 39% of 90 days ended higher against 30% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (29% to 49%).
A typical −5.8% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +34.6% and one in 10 beyond −29.9%.
Calls made from unlocks bigger than a day's trading have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 114 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned −2 points against ordinary days and the newer half +19 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 114 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what unlocks bigger than a day's trading did from 2024 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a token unlock worth a day or more of trading?
- In 60% of 114 cases from Jun 1, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 39% against 30% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −5.8% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +34.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −29.9% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 114 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −5.8% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 31, 2026: LMTS unlock: 1.67M tokens (1.27% of circulating).
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 30, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +11.1% in 2024 (5 cases) and −7.4% in 2025 (27 cases).