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What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a Wikipedia attention spike?
Short answer
Across 157 cases since 2017, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a Wikipedia attention spike was 0.00%. It ended higher 49% of the time. The best tenth gained +51.4% or better and the worst tenth −32.6% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
0.00%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
49%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+51.4%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−32.6%
or worse
Cases
157
2017-2026, on 140 days
Higher 52% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (125 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern157 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day its Wikipedia article had 3 times its usual readers (Wikimedia), dated two days after, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 157 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 157 measured cases on 140 separate days, from Dec 1, 2017 to Sep 27, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 2, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When far more people than usual read a coin's Wikipedia page, attention is spiking, after news or a big move. Attention can bring new money, and it can also mark the moment a late crowd arrives.
That is the reasoning behind watching attention spikes; whether it held over our 157 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 157 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 125 of the 140 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 157 cases fall on 140 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results54 up · 51 down
Results
as of · every past case, Dec 1, 2017 to Sep 27, 2026
Of the 157 cases, 54 ended up, 51 down and 52 sideways (within ±7.9%) 30 days later; the middle case 0.00%, the average day +12.0%.
ended up (54)ended down (51)sideways, within ±7.9% (52)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 159 142 days | −0.02% | 0.00% | 50% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 160 143 days | −0.01% | 0.00% | 49% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 157 140 days | 0.00% | −0.01% | 52% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.02% over 159 cases; 7 days, typical −0.01% over 160 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −10.8% in 2022 to +12.7% in 2021; 4 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +3.0% over 71 cases; mid caps +0.01% over 36 cases; small caps −0.24% over 31 cases; micro caps −3.8% over 19 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | +13.3% | 50% | 50% |
| 2018 | 4 | −4.6% | 50% | 50% |
| 2019 | 2 | +5.2% | 50% | 50% |
| 2020 | 9 | +6.0% | 69% | 31% |
| 2021 | 36 | +12.7% | 73% | 27% |
| 2022 | 13 | −10.8% | 0% | 100% |
| 2023 | 13 | +3.6% | 67% | 33% |
| 2024 | 35 | +0.18% | 53% | 47% |
| 2025 | 27 | −0.09% | 30% | 62% |
| 2026 | 16 | −0.18% | 43% | 57% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 71 | +3.0% | 58% | 42% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 36 | +0.01% | 50% | 47% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 31 | −0.24% | 42% | 55% |
| under $50M micro caps | 19 | −3.8% | 37% | 63% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD1 | Attention spike: 1,030 read USD1's Wikipedia article, 4.3x usual | open | open | open | |
| TORN | Attention spike: 2,859 read TORN's Wikipedia article, 24.3x usual | open | open | open | |
| BUSD | Attention spike: 2,770 read BUSD's Wikipedia article, 4.6x usual | open | open | open | |
| BTC | Attention spike: 12,625 read BTC's Wikipedia article, 5.1x usual | −1.4% | −1.1% | open | |
| FTT | Attention spike: 3,060 read FTT's Wikipedia article, 5.4x usual | +1.2% | +0.40% | open | |
| BGB | Attention spike: 1,539 read BGB's Wikipedia article, 23.5x usual | −1.1% | −0.77% | −6.9% | |
| BTC | Attention spike: 7,952 read BTC's Wikipedia article, 3.2x usual | +0.03% | +0.13% | −5.0% | |
| AXS | Attention spike: 3,737 read AXS's Wikipedia article, 67.3x usual | +8.2% | +25.2% | +6.4% | |
| USDC | Attention spike: 3,301 read USDC's Wikipedia article, 23.2x usual | +0.03% | −0.00% | +0.04% | |
| PUMP | Attention spike: 2,066 read PUMP's Wikipedia article, 10.5x usual | +3.8% | −13.0% | +5.7% |
5 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Dec 1, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from attention spikes at 30 days, so the 157 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 52% of 125 days ended higher against 48% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (43% to 60%).
A typical 0.00% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +51.4% and one in 10 beyond −32.6%.
Calls made from attention spikes have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 157 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned +9 points against ordinary days and the newer half −2 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 157 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what attention spikes did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end higher in the 30 days after a Wikipedia attention spike?
- In 49% of 157 cases from Dec 1, 2017 to Sep 27, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 52% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved 0.00% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +51.4% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −32.6% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 157 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The 0.00% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Nov 1, 2026: USD1, Attention spike: 1,030 read USD1's Wikipedia article, 4.3x usual.
- Its 30-day window closes on Dec 1, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +12.7% in 2021 (36 cases) and −10.8% in 2022 (13 cases).