Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the week after an extreme high in funding?
Short answer
344 cases since 2020: in the middle one, a coin moved −1.6% in the week after an extreme high in funding. 57% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +36.9%, one in 10 worse than −31.6%. Over 167 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−1.6%
over the next 7 days, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+36.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−31.6%
or worse
Cases
344
2020-2026, on 167 days
Higher 43% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (167 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern344 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the first day of a run of perpetual funding in the highest 5% of the coin's past year, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 344 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day.
In our data that gives 344 measured cases on 167 separate days, from Jan 20, 2020 to Oct 6, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 16, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When funding sits at an extreme high, longs are crowded and paying a lot to stay in. Traders watch for those positions to unwind.
That is the reasoning behind watching funding highs; whether it held over our 344 cases since 2020 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 344 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 167 of the 167 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 344 cases fall on 167 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results105 up · 146 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 20, 2020 to Oct 6, 2026
Of the 344 cases, 105 ended up, 146 down and 93 sideways (within ±5.7%) a week later; the middle case −1.6%, the average day +1.6%.
ended up (105)ended down (146)sideways, within ±5.7% (93)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 345 168 days | −0.75% | −0.42% | 44% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days this post | 344 167 days | −1.6% | −1.1% | 43% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 288 153 days | −4.3% | −1.7% | 42% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.75% over 345 cases; 30 days, typical −4.3% over 288 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −4.0% in 2026 to +4.6% in 2024; 1 of 4 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +1.9% over 37 cases; mid caps +0.64% over 46 cases; small caps −4.2% over 88 cases; micro caps −5.2% over 173 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9 | +1.9% | 62% | 38% |
| 2021 | 8 | +3.9% | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 | 2 | +1.6% | 50% | 50% |
| 2024 | 4 | +4.6% | 100% | 0% |
| 2025 | 1 | +8.2% | 100% | 0% |
| 2026 | 320 | −4.0% | 40% | 60% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 37 | +1.9% | 58% | 42% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 46 | +0.64% | 52% | 48% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 88 | −4.2% | 40% | 60% |
| under $50M micro caps | 173 | −5.2% | 40% | 59% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | Funding +58% a year: longs paying shorts | −19.2% | open | open | |
| SPX | Funding +65% a year: longs paying shorts | −13.4% | −19.1% | open | |
| LYN | Funding +208% a year: longs paying shorts | −25.2% | −39.1% | open | |
| SIREN | Funding +230% a year: longs paying shorts | −4.4% | −7.7% | open | |
| ZRO | Funding +58% a year: longs paying shorts | +8.8% | +6.1% | open | |
| MITO | Funding +56% a year: longs paying shorts | +1.7% | −5.9% | open | |
| HANA | Funding +88% a year: longs paying shorts | −0.56% | +4.5% | open | |
| KGEN | Funding +69% a year: longs paying shorts | −0.30% | −17.8% | open | |
| XPL | Funding +55% a year: longs paying shorts | −11.8% | −13.7% | open | |
| WLD | Funding +70% a year: longs paying shorts | −6.0% | +11.7% | open |
1 case still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Oct 20, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from funding highs at 7 days, so the 344 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 43% of 167 days ended higher against 48% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (35% to 50%).
The typical move of −1.6% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−31.6% to +36.9%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from funding highs have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 344 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 344 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what funding highs did from 2020 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the week after an extreme high in funding?
- In 57% of 344 cases from Jan 20, 2020 to Oct 6, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 43% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 7 days?
- The middle case moved −1.6% over the next 7 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +36.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −31.6% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 344 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −1.6% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 13, 2026: W, Funding +58% a year: longs paying shorts.
- Its 7-day window closes on Oct 20, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +4.6% in 2024 (4 cases) and −4.0% in 2026 (320 cases).