Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a micro-cap coin in the week after an extreme high in funding?
Short answer
299 cases since 2025: in the middle one, a micro-cap coin moved −3.9% in the week after an extreme high in funding. 58% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +34.1%, one in 10 worse than −31.2%. Over 152 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−3.9%
over the next 7 days, the middle case
How often
58%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+34.1%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−31.2%
or worse
Cases
299
2025-2026, on 152 days
Higher 40% of the time against 45% on ordinary days (152 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern299 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the first day of a run of perpetual funding in the highest 5% of the coin's past year, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 299 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day.
In our data that gives 299 measured cases on 152 separate days, from Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 28, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 5, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When funding sits at an extreme high, longs are crowded and paying a lot to stay in. Traders watch for those positions to unwind.
That is the reasoning behind watching funding highs; whether it held over our 299 cases since 2025 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 299 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 152 of the 152 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 299 cases fall on 152 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results95 up · 132 down
Results
as of · every past case, Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 28, 2026
A week later, the middle case stood at −3.9% and the average day at +2.5%; 95 cases ended up, 132 down and 72 sideways (within ±5.8%).
ended up (95)ended down (132)sideways, within ±5.8% (72)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 305 156 days | −1.3% | −0.65% | 43% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days this post | 299 152 days | −3.9% | −1.9% | 40% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 291 146 days | −7.4% | −6.7% | 42% | 41% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −1.3% over 305 cases; 30 days, typical −7.4% over 291 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | +8.2% | 100% | 0% |
| 2026 | 298 | −3.9% | 40% | 59% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARX | Funding +67% a year: longs paying shorts | open | open | open | |
| LIGHT | Funding +84% a year: longs paying shorts | open | open | open | |
| ELSA | Funding +66% a year: longs paying shorts | +0.37% | open | open | |
| IN | Funding +66% a year: longs paying shorts | open | open | open | |
| GOAT | Funding +54% a year: longs paying shorts | +1.6% | open | open | |
| APR | Funding +88% a year: longs paying shorts | +8.3% | open | open | |
| IDOL | Funding +69% a year: longs paying shorts | +26.2% | open | open | |
| EVAA | Funding +104% a year: longs paying shorts | −21.7% | open | open | |
| AIN | Funding +203% a year: longs paying shorts | −9.1% | +76.3% | open | |
| AIN | Funding +203% a year: longs paying shorts | −9.1% | open | open |
8 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Nov 12, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from funding highs at 7 days, so the 299 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 40% of 152 days ended higher against 45% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (33% to 48%).
The typical move of −3.9% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−31.2% to +34.1%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from funding highs have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 299 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 299 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what funding highs did from 2025 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a micro-cap coin end lower in the week after an extreme high in funding?
- In 58% of 299 cases from Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 28, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 40% against 45% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 7 days?
- The middle case moved −3.9% over the next 7 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +34.1% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −31.2% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 299 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −3.9% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Nov 5, 2026: ARX, Funding +67% a year: longs paying shorts.
- Its 7-day window closes on Nov 12, 2026.