PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
Try Pro freeLog in
Updated

Daily research · Chart patterns · written

What happens to a micro-cap coin in the week after a capitulation day?

Short answer

1,560 cases since 2018: in the middle one, a micro-cap coin moved −5.2% in the week after a capitulation day. 63% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +16.8%, one in 10 worse than −27.0%. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−5.2%

over the next 7 days, the middle case

How often

63%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+16.8%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−27.0%

or worse

Cases

1,560

2018-2026, on 502 days

Higher 37% of the time against 43% on ordinary days (488 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.

1,560 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

Share on Xcopy link

§ 01 · The pattern1,560 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a crash day (a fall of 3 times the usual daily move and at least 5%) on 3 times the usual volume, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 1,560 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later.

In our data that gives 1,560 measured cases on 502 separate days, from Nov 19, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 1, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A crash day on three times the usual volume looks like capitulation: holders giving up all at once. Traders call such days a washout that marks a low; the numbers below test that idea.

That is the reasoning behind watching capitulation days; whether it held over our 1,560 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • We measured each of the 1,560 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 488 of the 502 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,560 cases fall on 502 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of capitulation days within 7 days counts once, so no two of the 1,560 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results459 up · 636 down

Results

as of · every past case, Nov 19, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026

Of the 1,560 cases, 459 ended up, 636 down and 465 sideways (within ±4.7%) a week later; the middle case −5.2%, the average day −2.6%.

Every drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 459 cases ended up, 636 down, 465 sideways; the typical move −5.2%−25.0%0%+25.0%+50.0%NKN · Sep 21, 2020 · NKN −25.1% that day · +1.1% a week laterC98 · Dec 4, 2021 · C98 −19.5% that day · −8.5% a week laterBICO · May 11, 2022 · BICO −34.6% that day · +38.2% a week laterRVN · May 11, 2022 · RVN −26.5% that day · +14.4% a week laterBAR · Nov 8, 2022 · BAR −15.5% that day · −2.7% a week laterOGN · Nov 8, 2022 · OGN −18.9% that day · −12.4% a week laterPORTO · Nov 9, 2022 · PORTO −35.9% that day · +61.8% a week laterLOOM · Jun 5, 2023 · LOOM −9.2% that day · −9.9% a week laterHOOK · Jun 10, 2023 · HOOK −22.5% that day · +11.2% a week laterAERGO · Aug 16, 2023 · AERGO −9.1% that day · −2.6% a week laterARPA · Nov 2, 2023 · ARPA −8.4% that day · +3.6% a week laterMDX · Mar 5, 2024 · MDX −11.8% that day · +19.2% a week laterBICO · Jun 10, 2024 · BICO −18.1% that day · −24.1% a week laterC98 · Aug 5, 2024 · C98 −12.0% that day · +14.1% a week laterNUX · Nov 17, 2024 · NUX −36.3% that day · −36.0% a week laterXYM · Feb 2, 2025 · XYM −16.2% that day · +7.3% a week laterALPINE · Apr 6, 2025 · ALPINE −14.6% that day · +6.6% a week laterMDT · Jun 5, 2025 · MDT −20.0% that day · −11.6% a week laterEDU · Sep 22, 2025 · EDU −15.9% that day · −10.3% a week laterAVA · Oct 10, 2025 · AVA −36.5% that day · +14.9% a week laterDOT · Oct 10, 2025 · DOT −27.7% that day · −1.8% a week laterINIT · Oct 10, 2025 · INIT −37.6% that day · −9.9% a week laterNKN · Oct 10, 2025 · NKN −28.6% that day · +10.0% a week laterRVF · Oct 10, 2025 · RVF −12.4% that day · −7.7% a week laterVVS · Oct 10, 2025 · VVS −25.4% that day · −3.4% a week laterXYM · Nov 4, 2025 · XYM −8.1% that day · +7.5% a week laterVRA · Dec 29, 2025 · VRA −29.2% that day · −34.3% a week laterCOTI · Jan 31, 2026 · COTI −12.7% that day · −10.4% a week laterCVC · Feb 5, 2026 · CVC −16.4% that day · +15.0% a week laterRAVE · Feb 23, 2026 · RAVE −56.3% that day · +23.5% a week laterUOS · Apr 6, 2026 · UOS −19.5% that day · −10.2% a week laterPLAY · May 7, 2026 · PLAY −58.1% that day · +61.2% a week laterVFY · May 29, 2026 · VFY −13.5% that day · −21.7% a week laterOGN · Jun 5, 2026 · OGN −9.7% that day · +0.17% a week laterQI · Jun 27, 2026 · QI −10.1% that day · +9.3% a week laterA47 · Jul 21, 2026 · A47 −40.9% that day · +34.6% a week laterRVN · Aug 11, 2026 · RVN −18.1% that day · −6.6% a week laterASK · Aug 26, 2026 · ASK −20.5% that day · +3.7% a week laterAIN · Sep 16, 2026 · AIN −86.5% that day · −2.1% a week laterA47 · Oct 12, 2026 · A47 −22.3% that day · −39.2% a week later−5.2%typicalits day's close+7 days40 of 1,560 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 459 cases ended up, 636 down, 465 sideways; the typical move −5.2%−25.0%0%+25.0%+50.0%−5.2%its day's close+7 days40 of 1,560 cases, each its own line

ended up (459)ended down (636)sideways, within ±4.7% (465)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day1,586
508 days		−1.3%−0.23%41%47%higher less often than on ordinary days
7 days this post1,560
502 days		−5.2%−1.7%37%43%higher less often than on ordinary days
30 days1,390
450 days		−8.7%−7.5%35%37%no clear edge over ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −1.3% over 1,586 cases; 30 days, typical −8.7% over 1,390 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −8.6% in 2022 to +1.4% in 2019; 6 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2019 +1.4% over 9 cases; 2020 +1.1% over 16 cases; 2021 −2.5% over 41 cases; 2022 −8.6% over 194 cases; 2023 −3.8% over 168 cases; 2024 −5.1% over 157 cases; 2025 −5.8% over 452 cases; 2026 −5.1% over 522 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2019 · 9 cases · typical +1.4% · higher 55% · lower 40% · on 5 days201992020 · 16 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 60% · lower 40% · on 5 days2020162021 · 41 cases · typical −2.5% · higher 38% · lower 62% · on 13 days2021412022 · 194 cases · typical −8.6% · higher 22% · lower 78% · on 26 days20221942023 · 168 cases · typical −3.8% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 57 days20231682024 · 157 cases · typical −5.1% · higher 43% · lower 57% · on 76 days20241572025 · 452 cases · typical −5.8% · higher 34% · lower 66% · on 114 days20254522026 · 522 cases · typical −5.1% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 205 days2026522Typical move by year: 2019 +1.4% over 9 cases; 2020 +1.1% over 16 cases; 2021 −2.5% over 41 cases; 2022 −8.6% over 194 cases; 2023 −3.8% over 168 cases; 2024 −5.1% over 157 cases; 2025 −5.8% over 452 cases; 2026 −5.1% over 522 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2019 · 9 cases · typical +1.4% · higher 55% · lower 40% · on 5 days201992020 · 16 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 60% · lower 40% · on 5 days2020162021 · 41 cases · typical −2.5% · higher 38% · lower 62% · on 13 days2021412022 · 194 cases · typical −8.6% · higher 22% · lower 78% · on 26 days20221942023 · 168 cases · typical −3.8% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 57 days20231682024 · 157 cases · typical −5.1% · higher 43% · lower 57% · on 76 days20241572025 · 452 cases · typical −5.8% · higher 34% · lower 66% · on 114 days20254522026 · 522 cases · typical −5.1% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 205 days2026522
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20181−31.7%0%100%
20199+1.4%55%40%
202016+1.1%60%40%
202141−2.5%38%62%
2022194−8.6%22%78%
2023168−3.8%42%58%
2024157−5.1%43%57%
2025452−5.8%34%66%
2026522−5.1%37%63%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
SOPHSOPH −34.5% that dayopenopenopen
KONETKONET −23.1% that dayopenopenopen
D2TD2T −29.5% that dayopenopenopen
BLESSBLESS −23.6% that day−2.4%openopen
TLMTLM −10.2% that day+11.5%openopen
SHELLSHELL −15.8% that day+8.5%openopen
PIPEPIPE −36.4% that day+13.3%openopen
HAEDALHAEDAL −25.4% that day+15.5%openopen
ETHWETHW −10.5% that day+3.7%openopen
CELOCELO −10.8% that day+1.5%openopen

10 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Nov 7, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from capitulation days at 7 days, so the 1,560 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (37% against 43% over 488 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

A typical −5.2% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +16.8% and one in 10 beyond −27.0%.

Calls made from capitulation days have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,560 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,560 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what capitulation days did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a micro-cap coin end lower in the week after a capitulation day?
  • In 63% of 1,560 cases from Nov 19, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 37% against 43% on each coin's own ordinary days.
What was the typical move?
  • The middle case moved −5.2% over the next 7 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +16.8% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −27.0% or less.
Is this an edge?
  • Not on its own: over 1,560 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −5.2% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 31, 2026: SOPH −34.5% that day.
  • Its 7-day window closes on Nov 7, 2026.
Did it work the same every year?
No. The typical move was +1.4% in 2019 (9 cases) and −8.6% in 2022 (194 cases).