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What happens to a coin in the week after a squeeze breakdown?

Short answer

8,271 cases since 2018: in the middle one, a coin moved −1.4% in the week after a squeeze breakdown. It ended lower 57% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +12.9% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −14.0% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−1.4%

over the next 7 days, the middle case

How often

57%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+12.9%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−14.0%

or worse

Cases

8,271

2018-2026, on 1,004 days

Higher 43% of the time against 44% on ordinary days (1,004 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.

8,271 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern8,271 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a close below the 20 closes before it while their daily moves were as calm as the calmest 10% of the year before, and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 8,271 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later.

In our data that gives 8,271 measured cases on 1,004 separate days, from Mar 7, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 17, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A break below the recent range right after the calmest stretch of the year. Traders watch whether the release keeps going down or snaps back.

That is the reasoning behind watching squeeze breakdowns; whether it held over our 8,271 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • Every one of the 8,271 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,004 of the 1,004 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 8,271 cases fall on 1,004 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of squeeze breakdowns within 7 days counts once, so no two of the 8,271 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results2420 up · 3494 down

Results

as of · every past case, Mar 7, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026

A week later, the middle case stood at −1.4% and the average day at −0.76%; 2,420 cases ended up, 3,494 down and 2,357 sideways (within ±3.1%).

Every drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 2420 cases ended up, 3494 down, 2357 sideways; the typical move −1.4%−20.0%0%+20.0%LINK · Nov 21, 2019 · LINK −5.7% that day · −10.8% a week laterARPA · Jul 19, 2021 · ARPA −9.6% that day · +15.7% a week laterYFII · Nov 26, 2021 · YFII −9.8% that day · −4.9% a week laterCELR · Feb 13, 2022 · CELR −5.7% that day · −12.9% a week laterXEM · May 3, 2022 · XEM −5.1% that day · −30.7% a week laterELF · Aug 19, 2022 · ELF −12.9% that day · −6.9% a week laterCRV · Oct 2, 2022 · CRV −3.6% that day · +2.7% a week laterREN · Oct 19, 2022 · REN −9.5% that day · +12.2% a week laterRARE · Dec 15, 2022 · RARE −7.5% that day · −14.2% a week laterWAN · Apr 19, 2023 · WAN −7.7% that day · −3.8% a week laterDAR · Jun 1, 2023 · DAR −0.6% that day · −13.5% a week laterONE · Aug 3, 2023 · ONE −1.2% that day · +1.8% a week laterCELO · Sep 10, 2023 · CELO −5.5% that day · +2.7% a week laterACH · Oct 18, 2023 · ACH −3.0% that day · +27.2% a week laterCTXC · Oct 1, 2024 · CTXC −8.7% that day · +9.0% a week laterCKB · Jan 13, 2025 · CKB −7.0% that day · −6.5% a week laterPORTO · Apr 2, 2025 · PORTO −5.0% that day · −5.1% a week laterSTG · Jun 5, 2025 · STG −3.6% that day · −0.28% a week laterMED · Jul 1, 2025 · MED −3.0% that day · +4.0% a week laterLM · Aug 19, 2025 · LM −3.1% that day · −3.9% a week laterDYM · Sep 22, 2025 · DYM −13.3% that day · −10.3% a week laterNS · Oct 7, 2025 · NS −7.4% that day · −25.1% a week laterID · Nov 3, 2025 · ID −12.3% that day · +5.7% a week laterAXL · Nov 29, 2025 · AXL −4.3% that day · −7.7% a week laterIMX · Dec 12, 2025 · IMX −4.9% that day · −15.9% a week laterPOL · Dec 25, 2025 · POL −3.4% that day · +3.4% a week laterHEART · Jan 20, 2026 · HEART −5.8% that day · −9.4% a week laterCOOKIE · Feb 4, 2026 · COOKIE −2.6% that day · −12.6% a week laterWNCG · Mar 6, 2026 · WNCG −0.6% that day · +2.4% a week laterQKC · Mar 21, 2026 · QKC −2.2% that day · −4.4% a week laterILV · Mar 29, 2026 · ILV −0.6% that day · +8.9% a week laterTAI · Apr 28, 2026 · TAI −4.2% that day · −3.7% a week laterPOKT · May 16, 2026 · POKT −2.5% that day · −5.8% a week laterONE · May 29, 2026 · ONE −0.6% that day · −16.1% a week laterDOGS · Jun 25, 2026 · DOGS −5.3% that day · +2.9% a week laterCLANKER · Jul 13, 2026 · CLANKER −5.5% that day · −0.56% a week laterCKB · Jul 24, 2026 · CKB −0.9% that day · −6.8% a week laterMOVR · Aug 1, 2026 · MOVR −1.2% that day · +3.3% a week laterMEME · Aug 17, 2026 · MEME −0.9% that day · +18.5% a week laterWET · Sep 15, 2026 · WET −7.9% that day · +23.2% a week later−1.4%typicalits day's close+7 days40 of 8,271 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 2420 cases ended up, 3494 down, 2357 sideways; the typical move −1.4%−20.0%0%+20.0%−1.4%its day's close+7 days40 of 8,271 cases, each its own line

ended up (2420)ended down (3494)sideways, within ±3.1% (2357)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day8,366
1,010 days		−0.09%−0.32%47%47%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days this post8,271
1,004 days		−1.4%−1.8%43%44%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days6,301
900 days		−4.5%−7.9%40%39%no clear edge over ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.09% over 8,366 cases; 30 days, typical −4.5% over 6,301 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −12.6% in 2018 to +1.9% in 2020; 8 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.

By market cap: large caps −0.84% over 376 cases; mid caps −0.34% over 676 cases; small caps −0.71% over 2,126 cases; micro caps −1.6% over 5,093 cases.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2018 −12.6% over 22 cases; 2019 −1.4% over 98 cases; 2020 +1.9% over 106 cases; 2021 −0.93% over 324 cases; 2022 −2.0% over 1326 cases; 2023 −0.03% over 940 cases; 2024 −2.6% over 368 cases; 2025 −1.7% over 2171 cases; 2026 −1.5% over 2916 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2018 · 22 cases · typical −12.6% · higher 25% · lower 75% · on 12 days2018222019 · 98 cases · typical −1.4% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 41 days2019982020 · 106 cases · typical +1.9% · higher 60% · lower 40% · on 39 days20201062021 · 324 cases · typical −0.93% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 67 days20213242022 · 1,326 cases · typical −2.0% · higher 38% · lower 62% · on 130 days20221,3262023 · 940 cases · typical −0.03% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 138 days20239402024 · 368 cases · typical −2.6% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 98 days20243682025 · 2,171 cases · typical −1.7% · higher 44% · lower 56% · on 214 days20252,1712026 · 2,916 cases · typical −1.5% · higher 41% · lower 58% · on 265 days20262,916Typical move by year: 2018 −12.6% over 22 cases; 2019 −1.4% over 98 cases; 2020 +1.9% over 106 cases; 2021 −0.93% over 324 cases; 2022 −2.0% over 1326 cases; 2023 −0.03% over 940 cases; 2024 −2.6% over 368 cases; 2025 −1.7% over 2171 cases; 2026 −1.5% over 2916 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2018 · 22 cases · typical −12.6% · higher 25% · lower 75% · on 12 days2018222019 · 98 cases · typical −1.4% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 41 days2019982020 · 106 cases · typical +1.9% · higher 60% · lower 40% · on 39 days20201062021 · 324 cases · typical −0.93% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 67 days20213242022 · 1,326 cases · typical −2.0% · higher 38% · lower 62% · on 130 days20221,3262023 · 940 cases · typical −0.03% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 138 days20239402024 · 368 cases · typical −2.6% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 98 days20243682025 · 2,171 cases · typical −1.7% · higher 44% · lower 56% · on 214 days20252,1712026 · 2,916 cases · typical −1.5% · higher 41% · lower 58% · on 265 days20262,916
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
201822−12.6%25%75%
201998−1.4%41%59%
2020106+1.9%60%40%
2021324−0.93%46%54%
20221,326−2.0%38%62%
2023940−0.03%45%55%
2024368−2.6%39%61%
20252,171−1.7%44%56%
20262,916−1.5%41%58%

By market cap on the day

Coins worthCasesTypical moveHigherLower
over $5B large caps376−0.84%44%56%
$500M to $5B mid caps676−0.34%48%52%
$50M to $500M small caps2,126−0.71%45%54%
under $50M micro caps5,093−1.6%41%59%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
SPYONSPYON −1.2% that dayopenopenopen
QKAQKA −7.2% that dayopenopenopen
PXPX −2.4% that dayopenopenopen
POWRPOWR −1.3% that dayopenopenopen
MOODENGMOODENG −1.3% that dayopenopenopen
METALMETAL −5.8% that dayopenopenopen
LOCUSLOCUS −10.7% that dayopenopenopen
KAITOKAITO −1.4% that dayopenopenopen
BGBBGB −2.2% that dayopenopenopen
AEVOAEVO −0.3% that dayopenopenopen

10 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Oct 23, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from squeeze breakdowns at 7 days, so the 8,271 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

No clear edge: 43% of 1,004 days ended higher against 44% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (40% to 46%).

The typical move of −1.4% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−14.0% to +12.9%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from squeeze breakdowns have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 8,271 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

The older half of the days leaned −4 points against ordinary days and the newer half +2 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 8,271 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what squeeze breakdowns did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a coin end lower in the week after a squeeze breakdown?
  • In 57% of 8,271 cases from Mar 7, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 43% against 44% on each coin's own ordinary days.
What was the typical move?
  • The middle case moved −1.4% over the next 7 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +12.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −14.0% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 8,271 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −1.4% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 16, 2026: SPYON −1.2% that day.
  • Its 7-day window closes on Oct 23, 2026.
Does it depend on the year?
No. The typical move was +1.9% in 2020 (106 cases) and −12.6% in 2018 (22 cases).