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What happens to a coin in the week after a capitulation day?

Short answer

2,364 cases since 2017: in the middle one, a coin moved −3.9% in the week after a capitulation day. It ended lower 61% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +17.4% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −24.4% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−3.9%

over the next 7 days, the middle case

How often

61%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+17.4%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−24.4%

or worse

Cases

2,364

2017-2026, on 560 days

Higher 39% of the time against 44% on ordinary days (539 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.

2,364 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern2,364 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a crash day (a fall of 3 times the usual daily move and at least 5%) on 3 times the usual volume, and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 2,364 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later.

In our data that gives 2,364 measured cases on 560 separate days, from Dec 22, 2017 to Oct 4, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 12, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A crash day on several times the usual volume looks like capitulation: holders giving up all at once. Traders often call such days a washout that marks a low; the numbers below test that idea.

That is the reasoning behind watching capitulation days; whether it held over our 2,364 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • We measured each of the 2,364 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 539 of the 560 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 2,364 cases fall on 560 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of capitulation days within 7 days counts once, so no two of the 2,364 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results795 up · 914 down

Results

as of · every past case, Dec 22, 2017 to Oct 4, 2026

A week later, the middle case stood at −3.9% and the average day at −1.8%; 795 cases ended up, 914 down and 655 sideways (within ±4.3%).

Every drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 795 cases ended up, 914 down, 655 sideways; the typical move −3.9%0%+50.0%IOST · Sep 24, 2019 · IOST −25.2% that day · +1.4% a week laterBCH · Aug 2, 2020 · BCH −11.0% that day · +5.6% a week laterGRT · May 19, 2021 · GRT −39.1% that day · +13.0% a week laterDENT · Dec 4, 2021 · DENT −21.6% that day · −11.8% a week laterAVAX · May 9, 2022 · AVAX −20.2% that day · −21.0% a week laterDASH · May 11, 2022 · DASH −20.5% that day · −4.5% a week laterSC · May 11, 2022 · SC −27.9% that day · +9.9% a week laterBADGER · Nov 8, 2022 · BADGER −15.1% that day · −17.2% a week laterLINK · Nov 8, 2022 · LINK −13.9% that day · −16.7% a week laterXVG · Nov 8, 2022 · XVG −16.3% that day · −15.8% a week laterFORTH · Feb 9, 2023 · FORTH −10.0% that day · +0.51% a week laterTRU · Jun 5, 2023 · TRU −12.8% that day · −12.9% a week laterIOST · Jun 10, 2023 · IOST −10.2% that day · −0.26% a week laterCVX · Jul 30, 2023 · CVX −10.8% that day · −5.6% a week laterPOLYX · Oct 21, 2023 · POLYX −17.1% that day · +70.1% a week laterFLM · Mar 5, 2024 · FLM −11.9% that day · +32.7% a week laterONT · Apr 13, 2024 · ONT −26.3% that day · +29.2% a week laterWRX · Jul 18, 2024 · WRX −13.4% that day · −13.9% a week later1INCH · Dec 9, 2024 · 1INCH −24.1% that day · +3.2% a week laterXPRT · Mar 8, 2025 · XPRT −14.9% that day · +11.5% a week laterOG · May 30, 2025 · OG −24.4% that day · −2.0% a week laterEDU · Sep 22, 2025 · EDU −15.9% that day · −10.3% a week laterASTR · Oct 10, 2025 · ASTR −30.5% that day · +0.45% a week laterDATA · Oct 10, 2025 · DATA −28.6% that day · −5.5% a week laterHIGH · Oct 10, 2025 · HIGH −32.5% that day · −0.32% a week laterMLN · Oct 10, 2025 · MLN −35.1% that day · +5.5% a week laterRAD · Oct 10, 2025 · RAD −22.6% that day · +5.8% a week laterTRB · Oct 10, 2025 · TRB −28.5% that day · +1.0% a week laterMOVE · Nov 3, 2025 · MOVE −19.0% that day · +15.7% a week laterZRX · Dec 31, 2025 · ZRX −16.1% that day · +2.0% a week laterHIPPO · Jan 31, 2026 · HIPPO −16.5% that day · −1.8% a week laterCVC · Feb 5, 2026 · CVC −16.4% that day · +15.0% a week laterVET · Feb 5, 2026 · VET −12.4% that day · +8.2% a week laterDRIFT · Apr 1, 2026 · DRIFT −27.7% that day · −14.4% a week laterMITO · May 14, 2026 · MITO −18.4% that day · −24.8% a week laterAMP · Jun 5, 2026 · AMP −12.8% that day · −4.5% a week laterAIC · Jun 15, 2026 · AIC −22.5% that day · −39.1% a week laterCXT · Jul 22, 2026 · CXT −5.1% that day · +4.5% a week laterNIM · Aug 18, 2026 · NIM −10.7% that day · −8.0% a week laterMINA · Sep 14, 2026 · MINA −15.3% that day · +58.1% a week later−3.9%typicalits day's close+7 days40 of 2,364 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 795 cases ended up, 914 down, 655 sideways; the typical move −3.9%0%+50.0%−3.9%its day's close+7 days40 of 2,364 cases, each its own line

ended up (795)ended down (914)sideways, within ±4.3% (655)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day2,380
565 days		−1.0%−0.20%44%47%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days this post2,364
560 days		−3.9%−1.4%39%44%higher less often than on ordinary days
30 days2,185
515 days		−7.3%−6.1%38%39%no clear edge over ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −1.0% over 2,380 cases; 30 days, typical −7.3% over 2,185 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −10.9% in 2018 to +1.4% in 2021; 7 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.

By market cap: large caps +1.7% over 146 cases; mid caps −0.18% over 197 cases; small caps −1.7% over 593 cases; micro caps −4.6% over 1,428 cases.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2018 −10.9% over 14 cases; 2019 −0.92% over 35 cases; 2020 +1.1% over 73 cases; 2021 +1.4% over 105 cases; 2022 −5.0% over 382 cases; 2023 −4.3% over 287 cases; 2024 −2.4% over 215 cases; 2025 −4.2% over 632 cases; 2026 −4.0% over 620 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2018 · 14 cases · typical −10.9% · higher 20% · lower 80% · on 5 days2018142019 · 35 cases · typical −0.92% · higher 38% · lower 61% · on 9 days2019352020 · 73 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 49% · lower 51% · on 11 days2020732021 · 105 cases · typical +1.4% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 19 days20211052022 · 382 cases · typical −5.0% · higher 27% · lower 73% · on 34 days20223822023 · 287 cases · typical −4.3% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 70 days20232872024 · 215 cases · typical −2.4% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 77 days20242152025 · 632 cases · typical −4.2% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 135 days20256322026 · 620 cases · typical −4.0% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 199 days2026620Typical move by year: 2018 −10.9% over 14 cases; 2019 −0.92% over 35 cases; 2020 +1.1% over 73 cases; 2021 +1.4% over 105 cases; 2022 −5.0% over 382 cases; 2023 −4.3% over 287 cases; 2024 −2.4% over 215 cases; 2025 −4.2% over 632 cases; 2026 −4.0% over 620 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2018 · 14 cases · typical −10.9% · higher 20% · lower 80% · on 5 days2018142019 · 35 cases · typical −0.92% · higher 38% · lower 61% · on 9 days2019352020 · 73 cases · typical +1.1% · higher 49% · lower 51% · on 11 days2020732021 · 105 cases · typical +1.4% · higher 46% · lower 54% · on 19 days20211052022 · 382 cases · typical −5.0% · higher 27% · lower 73% · on 34 days20223822023 · 287 cases · typical −4.3% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 70 days20232872024 · 215 cases · typical −2.4% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 77 days20242152025 · 632 cases · typical −4.2% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 135 days20256322026 · 620 cases · typical −4.0% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 199 days2026620
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20171+15.4%100%0%
201814−10.9%20%80%
201935−0.92%38%61%
202073+1.1%49%51%
2021105+1.4%46%54%
2022382−5.0%27%73%
2023287−4.3%39%61%
2024215−2.4%45%55%
2025632−4.2%41%59%
2026620−4.0%37%63%

By market cap on the day

Coins worthCasesTypical moveHigherLower
over $5B large caps146+1.7%50%50%
$500M to $5B mid caps197−0.18%46%54%
$50M to $500M small caps593−1.7%47%53%
under $50M micro caps1,428−4.6%38%62%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
AGTAGT −25.2% that day−2.1%openopen
SPSSPS −17.3% that day+4.2%openopen
KGENKGEN −12.4% that day+7.0%openopen
BILLBILL −13.7% that day−2.6%openopen
WELLWELL −17.5% that day−3.5%openopen
UOSUOS −23.9% that day−7.6%openopen
RESOLVRESOLV −12.9% that day−6.2%openopen
GRIFFAINGRIFFAIN −35.0% that day+5.5%openopen
API3API3 −9.6% that day−5.9%openopen
MNDEMNDE −24.8% that day+11.7%openopen

10 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Oct 17, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from capitulation days at 7 days, so the 2,364 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (39% against 44% over 539 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

A typical −3.9% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +17.4% and one in 10 beyond −24.4%.

Calls made from capitulation days have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 2,364 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 2,364 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what capitulation days did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

Did a coin usually end lower in the week after a capitulation day?
  • In 61% of 2,364 cases from Dec 22, 2017 to Oct 4, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 39% against 44% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move over the next 7 days?
  • The middle case moved −3.9% over the next 7 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +17.4% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −24.4% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 2,364 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −3.9% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 10, 2026: AGT −25.2% that day.
  • Its 7-day window closes on Oct 17, 2026.
Did it work the same every year?
No. The typical move was +1.4% in 2021 (105 cases) and −10.9% in 2018 (14 cases).