Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the week after a usage slump?
Short answer
Across 526 cases since 2017, the typical move for a coin in the week after a usage slump was −1.9%. Lower was the outcome 57% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +15.0%, one in 10 worse than −19.0%. Over 379 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−1.9%
over the next 7 days, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+15.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−19.0%
or worse
Cases
526
2017-2026, on 402 days
Higher 43% of the time against 45% on ordinary days (379 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern526 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a week users paid its protocol 0.5 times their usual week or less (DefiLlama), dated two days after the week, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 526 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day.
In our data that gives 526 measured cases on 402 separate days, from Sep 17, 2017 to Oct 17, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 28, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When what users pay a protocol halves in a week, fewer people are using it. Traders watch whether the token follows the drop in activity, or whether the slump was already in the price.
That is the reasoning behind watching usage slumps; whether it held over our 526 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 526 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 379 of the 402 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 526 cases fall on 402 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results150 up · 236 down
Results
as of · every past case, Sep 17, 2017 to Oct 17, 2026
Of the 526 cases, 150 ended up, 236 down and 140 sideways (within ±3.7%) a week later; the middle case −1.9%, the average day −1.8%.
ended up (150)ended down (236)sideways, within ±3.7% (140)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 531 405 days | −0.41% | −0.40% | 46% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days this post | 526 402 days | −1.9% | −1.7% | 43% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 514 396 days | −7.0% | −6.9% | 39% | 41% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.41% over 531 cases; 30 days, typical −7.0% over 514 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −3.0% in 2025 to +6.7% in 2018; 5 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.12% over 30 cases; mid caps −2.0% over 100 cases; small caps −2.5% over 182 cases; micro caps −2.5% over 214 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1 | −1.5% | 0% | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | +6.7% | 67% | 33% |
| 2019 | 1 | +24.0% | 100% | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | −14.7% | 50% | 50% |
| 2021 | 23 | +4.6% | 55% | 45% |
| 2022 | 34 | −2.9% | 47% | 53% |
| 2023 | 50 | −0.59% | 44% | 56% |
| 2024 | 89 | −2.0% | 40% | 60% |
| 2025 | 184 | −3.0% | 41% | 59% |
| 2026 | 139 | −2.2% | 41% | 58% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 30 | −0.12% | 50% | 50% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 100 | −2.0% | 45% | 55% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 182 | −2.5% | 43% | 57% |
| under $50M micro caps | 214 | −2.5% | 41% | 58% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYRUP | Usage down 0.3x: SYRUP's protocol took $790k in a week | open | open | open | |
| STG | Usage down 0.5x: STG's protocol took $46k in a week | open | open | open | |
| REZ | Usage down 0.4x: REZ's protocol took $20k in a week | +9.7% | open | open | |
| BLUE | Usage down 0.5x: BLUE's protocol took $30k in a week | −4.9% | open | open | |
| SDL | Usage down 0.4x: SDL's protocol took $65k in a week | open | open | open | |
| CETUS | Usage down 0.4x: CETUS's protocol took $90k in a week | −2.6% | open | open | |
| RPL | Usage down 0.3x: RPL's protocol took $163k in a week | −1.9% | open | open | |
| EIGEN | Usage down 0.5x: EIGEN's protocol took $49k in a week | −6.1% | open | open | |
| FWA | Usage down 0.2x: FWA's protocol took $202k in a week | open | open | open | |
| EDGE | Usage down 0.5x: EDGE's protocol took $63k in a week | open | open | open |
10 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Nov 4, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from usage slumps at 7 days, so the 526 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 43% of 379 days ended higher against 45% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (38% to 48%).
A typical −1.9% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +15.0% and one in 10 beyond −19.0%.
Calls made from usage slumps have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 526 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned −7 points against ordinary days and the newer half +3 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 526 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what usage slumps did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the week after a usage slump?
- In 57% of 526 cases from Sep 17, 2017 to Oct 17, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 43% against 45% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 7 days?
- The middle case moved −1.9% over the next 7 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +15.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −19.0% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 526 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −1.9% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 28, 2026: SYRUP, Usage down 0.3x: SYRUP's protocol took $790k in a week.
- Its 7-day window closes on Nov 4, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +6.7% in 2018 (3 cases) and −3.0% in 2025 (184 cases).