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What happens to a coin in the week after a 5% fall on a day Bitcoin rose 2%?

Short answer

Across 2,171 cases since 2019, the typical move for a coin in the week after a 5% fall on a day Bitcoin rose 2% was −3.6%. It ended lower 62% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +18.6% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −22.2% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−3.6%

over the next 7 days, the middle case

How often

62%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+18.6%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−22.2%

or worse

Cases

2,171

2019-2026, on 308 days

Higher 38% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (308 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.

2,171 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern2,171 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a close 5% or more below the coin's close before while Bitcoin's rose 2% or more over the same two closes, with 365 closes of the coin before it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 2,171 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later.

In our data that gives 2,171 measured cases on 308 separate days, from Apr 23, 2019 to Oct 21, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 5, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A coin that closes 5% lower on a day Bitcoin rose 2% fell while the market lifted almost everything else. One reading is that something about the coin itself weighs on it, such as new supply or bad news; another is that the drop was an overreaction that gets corrected in the days after.

That is the reasoning behind watching falls on Bitcoin up days; whether it held over our 2,171 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • We measured each of the 2,171 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 7 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 308 of the 308 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 2,171 cases fall on 308 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of falls on Bitcoin up days within 7 days counts once, so no two of the 2,171 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results763 up · 784 down

Results

as of · every past case, Apr 23, 2019 to Oct 21, 2026

A week later, the middle case stood at −3.6% and the average day at −1.1%; 763 cases ended up, 784 down and 624 sideways (within ±5.6%).

Every drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 763 cases ended up, 784 down, 624 sideways; the typical move −3.6%−40.0%−20.0%0%+20.0%+40.0%LINK · Jul 27, 2020 · LINK −5.4% that day · +30.3% a week laterONG · Nov 30, 2020 · ONG −5.4% that day · −13.5% a week laterMATIC · Jan 28, 2021 · MATIC −7.6% that day · +22.8% a week laterIOTX · Feb 14, 2021 · IOTX −7.2% that day · +10.5% a week laterDENT · Apr 10, 2021 · DENT −5.8% that day · −14.1% a week laterTROY · Jun 22, 2021 · TROY −8.7% that day · +26.4% a week laterSTORJ · Oct 11, 2021 · STORJ −5.6% that day · −10.6% a week laterFUN · Jan 1, 2022 · FUN −7.8% that day · −22.7% a week laterSFP · May 30, 2022 · SFP −7.9% that day · −9.4% a week laterSANTOS · Jan 11, 2023 · SANTOS −6.0% that day · +5.1% a week laterALICE · Nov 9, 2023 · ALICE −7.4% that day · +9.0% a week laterYGG · Dec 18, 2023 · YGG −5.4% that day · +18.4% a week laterPERP · Feb 28, 2024 · PERP −5.8% that day · +10.3% a week laterALCX · Apr 8, 2024 · ALCX −7.5% that day · −27.2% a week laterSUI · Aug 13, 2024 · SUI −5.8% that day · −8.9% a week laterGRT · Nov 13, 2024 · GRT −5.6% that day · +22.4% a week laterUTK · Nov 13, 2024 · UTK −8.2% that day · +13.2% a week laterCTSI · Nov 20, 2024 · CTSI −5.2% that day · +32.4% a week laterALGO · Dec 4, 2024 · ALGO −5.5% that day · −5.4% a week laterASM · Jan 21, 2025 · ASM −8.8% that day · −12.5% a week laterVIDT · Mar 1, 2025 · VIDT −5.2% that day · −41.9% a week laterGMRX · Apr 1, 2025 · GMRX −5.8% that day · −28.3% a week laterPIXEL · Apr 22, 2025 · PIXEL −7.5% that day · −5.3% a week laterRAY · May 6, 2025 · RAY −5.4% that day · +40.6% a week laterLOBO · Jul 10, 2025 · LOBO −7.1% that day · −4.2% a week laterHT · Sep 10, 2025 · HT −7.5% that day · +7.9% a week laterSOUL · Nov 9, 2025 · SOUL −14.7% that day · +0.21% a week laterLSK · Dec 3, 2025 · LSK −5.7% that day · −5.6% a week laterBTRST · Feb 2, 2026 · BTRST −8.1% that day · +5.8% a week laterDODO · Mar 4, 2026 · DODO −8.5% that day · −0.40% a week laterBARSIK · Mar 31, 2026 · BARSIK −8.2% that day · +3.8% a week laterBPT · Apr 13, 2026 · BPT −6.8% that day · +33.5% a week laterCITY · Apr 22, 2026 · CITY −5.0% that day · −12.4% a week laterSWARMS · May 14, 2026 · SWARMS −18.7% that day · −17.5% a week laterBICO · Jul 1, 2026 · BICO −7.3% that day · −6.9% a week laterSHPING · Jul 2, 2026 · SHPING −6.1% that day · −7.3% a week laterKAITO · Aug 17, 2026 · KAITO −6.5% that day · +3.2% a week laterICX · Aug 20, 2026 · ICX −11.0% that day · −12.6% a week laterAIN · Sep 18, 2026 · AIN −7.8% that day · +3.4% a week laterGLMR · Oct 4, 2026 · GLMR −10.0% that day · −4.3% a week later−3.6%typicalits day's close+7 days40 of 2,171 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 7 days: 763 cases ended up, 784 down, 624 sideways; the typical move −3.6%−40.0%−20.0%0%+20.0%+40.0%−3.6%its day's close+7 days40 of 2,171 cases, each its own line

ended up (763)ended down (784)sideways, within ±5.6% (624)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day2,191
312 days		−1.5%−0.02%41%49%higher less often than on ordinary days
7 days this post2,171
308 days		−3.6%−0.48%38%48%higher less often than on ordinary days
30 days1,833
289 days		−5.4%−3.9%39%45%higher less often than on ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −1.5% over 2,191 cases; 30 days, typical −5.4% over 1,833 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −9.4% in 2022 to +0.07% in 2026; 7 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.

By market cap: large caps +1.0% over 52 cases; mid caps +0.52% over 118 cases; small caps −1.1% over 417 cases; micro caps −4.3% over 1,584 cases.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2019 −1.8% over 11 cases; 2020 −0.76% over 96 cases; 2021 −1.6% over 300 cases; 2022 −9.4% over 106 cases; 2023 −4.3% over 130 cases; 2024 −5.7% over 392 cases; 2025 −4.6% over 486 cases; 2026 +0.07% over 650 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2019 · 11 cases · typical −1.8% · higher 50% · lower 50% · on 8 days2019112020 · 96 cases · typical −0.76% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 31 days2020962021 · 300 cases · typical −1.6% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 62 days20213002022 · 106 cases · typical −9.4% · higher 32% · lower 68% · on 39 days20221062023 · 130 cases · typical −4.3% · higher 34% · lower 66% · on 32 days20231302024 · 392 cases · typical −5.7% · higher 36% · lower 64% · on 47 days20243922025 · 486 cases · typical −4.6% · higher 35% · lower 64% · on 51 days20254862026 · 650 cases · typical +0.07% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 38 days2026650Typical move by year: 2019 −1.8% over 11 cases; 2020 −0.76% over 96 cases; 2021 −1.6% over 300 cases; 2022 −9.4% over 106 cases; 2023 −4.3% over 130 cases; 2024 −5.7% over 392 cases; 2025 −4.6% over 486 cases; 2026 +0.07% over 650 casesThe typical move a week later, year by year2019 · 11 cases · typical −1.8% · higher 50% · lower 50% · on 8 days2019112020 · 96 cases · typical −0.76% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 31 days2020962021 · 300 cases · typical −1.6% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 62 days20213002022 · 106 cases · typical −9.4% · higher 32% · lower 68% · on 39 days20221062023 · 130 cases · typical −4.3% · higher 34% · lower 66% · on 32 days20231302024 · 392 cases · typical −5.7% · higher 36% · lower 64% · on 47 days20243922025 · 486 cases · typical −4.6% · higher 35% · lower 64% · on 51 days20254862026 · 650 cases · typical +0.07% · higher 41% · lower 59% · on 38 days2026650
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
201911−1.8%50%50%
202096−0.76%42%58%
2021300−1.6%40%60%
2022106−9.4%32%68%
2023130−4.3%34%66%
2024392−5.7%36%64%
2025486−4.6%35%64%
2026650+0.07%41%59%

By market cap on the day

Coins worthCasesTypical moveHigherLower
over $5B large caps52+1.0%59%41%
$500M to $5B mid caps118+0.52%49%51%
$50M to $500M small caps417−1.1%45%55%
under $50M micro caps1,584−4.3%36%64%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
XPRTXPRT −9.1% that dayopenopenopen
WLFIWLFI −6.1% that dayopenopenopen
WALLETWALLET −10.3% that dayopenopenopen
VRAVRA −14.1% that dayopenopenopen
UOSUOS −8.0% that dayopenopenopen
TRUMPTRUMP −19.9% that dayopenopenopen
TAITAI −6.2% that dayopenopenopen
SUNDOGSUNDOG −5.5% that dayopenopenopen
SOULSOUL −11.2% that dayopenopenopen
SCCPSCCP −6.4% that dayopenopenopen

10 cases still open: the 7-day window of the newest closes on Nov 11, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from falls on Bitcoin up days at 7 days, so the 2,171 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (38% against 48% over 308 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

The typical move of −3.6% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−22.2% to +18.6%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from falls on Bitcoin up days have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 2,171 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 2,171 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what falls on Bitcoin up days did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a coin end lower in the week after a 5% fall on a day Bitcoin rose 2%?
  • In 62% of 2,171 cases from Apr 23, 2019 to Oct 21, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 38% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move over the next 7 days?
  • The middle case moved −3.6% over the next 7 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +18.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −22.2% or less.
Is this an edge?
  • Not on its own: over 2,171 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −3.6% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Nov 4, 2026: XPRT −9.1% that day.
  • Its 7-day window closes on Nov 11, 2026.
Did it work the same every year?
No. The typical move was +0.07% in 2026 (650 cases) and −9.4% in 2022 (106 cases).