Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What does Bitcoin do in the 30 days after a big stablecoin print?
Short answer
The middle case of 119 since 2020 saw Bitcoin move +2.1% in the 30 days after a big stablecoin print. It ended higher 54% of the time. The best tenth gained +30.3% or better and the worst tenth −19.3% or worse. Over 119 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
+2.1%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
54%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+30.3%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−19.3%
or worse
Cases
119
2020-2026, on 119 days
Higher 54% of the time against 62% on ordinary days (119 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern119 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the dollar stablecoins' total supply rose by $500M or more and at least 3 times a typical day of the months before (DefiLlama), and the move that counts is Bitcoin's.
Each of the 119 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 119 measured cases on 119 separate days, from Jan 3, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A jump in the supply of dollar stablecoins means new dollars arrived on crypto rails. Many traders treat it as fresh money waiting to be put to work in the market over the following days.
That is the reasoning behind watching stablecoin prints; whether it held over our 119 cases since 2020 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 119 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against Bitcoin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 119 of the 119 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 119 days counts once.
§ 04 · Results48 up · 34 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 3, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026
Of the 119 cases, 48 ended up, 34 down and 37 sideways (within ±5.5%) 30 days later; the middle case +2.1%, the average day +3.7%.
ended up (48)ended down (34)sideways, within ±5.5% (37)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 122 | +0.44% | +0.30% | 57% | 55% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 121 | +1.0% | +1.1% | 56% | 57% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 119 | +2.1% | +4.6% | 54% | 62% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.44% over 122 cases; 7 days, typical +1.0% over 121 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −16.4% in 2022 to +28.8% in 2020; 4 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | +28.8% | 100% | 0% |
| 2021 | 41 | −4.6% | 39% | 61% |
| 2022 | 5 | −16.4% | 40% | 60% |
| 2023 | 8 | +10.6% | 88% | 12% |
| 2024 | 27 | +5.1% | 63% | 37% |
| 2025 | 20 | −0.90% | 40% | 60% |
| 2026 | 13 | +4.9% | 69% | 31% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$806M in a day | −0.15% | open | open | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$2.29bn in a day | −1.1% | +2.5% | open | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$1.67bn in a day | −2.6% | −3.4% | open | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$1.05bn in a day | −1.8% | −5.0% | +6.5% | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$694M in a day | +13.0% | +15.7% | +17.2% | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$940M in a day | −0.17% | +9.0% | +21.4% | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$840M in a day | −1.1% | −3.4% | +19.4% | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$884M in a day | +0.93% | +1.1% | +2.6% | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$991M in a day | −0.45% | −2.1% | +1.6% | |
| BTC | Stablecoins printed: +$890M in a day | −1.1% | −2.0% | −24.5% |
3 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 1, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from stablecoin prints at 30 days, so the 119 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 54% of 119 days ended higher against 62% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (45% to 62%).
A typical +2.1% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +30.3% and one in 10 beyond −19.3%.
Calls made from stablecoin prints have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 119 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Markets change, so what stablecoin prints did from 2020 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did Bitcoin usually end higher in the 30 days after a big stablecoin print?
- In 54% of 119 cases from Jan 3, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 54% against 62% on Bitcoin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved +2.1% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +30.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −19.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 119 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The +2.1% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 2, 2026: Stablecoins printed: +$806M in a day.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 1, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +28.8% in 2020 (5 cases) and −16.4% in 2022 (5 cases).