Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What does Bitcoin do the day after a Fed rate decision?
Short answer
63 cases since 2019: in the middle one, Bitcoin moved +0.55% the day after a Fed rate decision. Higher was the outcome 57% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +6.5% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −4.1% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+0.55%
the next day, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+6.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−4.1%
or worse
Cases
63
2019-2026, on 63 days
Higher 57% of the time against 53% on ordinary days (63 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern63 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day of a Federal Reserve rate decision, from the Fed's own published calendar, and the move that counts is Bitcoin's.
Each of the 63 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 63 measured cases on 63 separate days, from Jan 30, 2019 to Sep 16, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
The Fed's rate decision sets the price of money, and crypto has often traded like other risky assets on those days. Most decisions are expected beforehand, so traders watch the surprise in the statement and the press conference, and whether the first reaction lasts.
That is the reasoning behind watching Fed decisions; whether it held over our 63 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 63 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against Bitcoin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 63 of the 63 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 63 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results25 up · 22 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 30, 2019 to Sep 16, 2026
Of the 63 cases, 25 ended up, 22 down and 16 sideways (within ±1.2%) a day later; the middle case +0.55%, the average day +0.83%.
ended up (25)ended down (22)sideways, within ±1.2% (16)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 63 | +0.55% | +0.18% | 57% | 53% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 63 | +0.74% | +0.65% | 56% | 54% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 62 | +2.6% | +3.1% | 55% | 55% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +0.74% over 63 cases; 30 days, typical +2.6% over 62 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −2.1% in 2026 to +1.5% in 2020; 4 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 8 | +0.62% | 62% | 38% |
| 2020 | 9 | +1.5% | 67% | 33% |
| 2021 | 8 | −0.08% | 50% | 50% |
| 2022 | 8 | −0.40% | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 | 8 | +0.63% | 62% | 38% |
| 2024 | 8 | −0.24% | 50% | 50% |
| 2025 | 8 | +0.17% | 62% | 38% |
| 2026 | 6 | −2.1% | 50% | 50% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Fed rate decision and projections | +1.0% | +11.6% | open | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision | +1.4% | +1.2% | +21.8% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision and projections | −4.1% | −7.0% | −2.7% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision | +0.01% | +6.7% | −3.8% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision and projections | −5.4% | −3.5% | +4.3% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision | −5.2% | −18.0% | −26.2% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision and projections | −0.18% | −6.9% | −2.2% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision | −4.1% | −8.0% | −19.5% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision and projections | +0.24% | −3.0% | −8.9% | |
| BTC | Fed rate decision | −1.9% | −2.5% | −8.1% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from Fed decisions showed no clear edge: right 54% of 98 calls since 2022, against 49% for that side on any day (Jul 26, 2022 – Jun 16, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 63 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 57% of 63 days ended higher against 53% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (45% to 69%).
The typical move of +0.55% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−4.1% to +6.5%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 54% of 98 calls since 2022, against 49% for that side on any day).
With 63 cases, a handful of unusual ones can move these numbers.
Markets change, so what Fed decisions did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did Bitcoin end higher the day after a Fed rate decision?
- In 57% of 63 cases from Jan 30, 2019 to Sep 16, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 57% against 53% on Bitcoin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +0.55% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −4.1% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 63 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 54% of 98 calls since 2022, against 49% for that side on any day).
- The +0.55% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Sep 16, 2026: Fed rate decision and projections.
- A day later the move was +1.0%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +1.5% in 2020 (9 cases) and −2.1% in 2026 (6 cases).