Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What does Bitcoin do the day after a US CPI release?
Short answer
Across 68 cases since 2021, the typical move for Bitcoin the day after a US CPI release was +1.1%. 65% of the cases ended higher. The best 1 in 10 reached +6.0% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −4.7% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+1.1%
the next day, the middle case
How often
65%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+6.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−4.7%
or worse
Cases
68
2021-2026, on 68 days
Higher 65% of the time against 53% on ordinary days (68 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern68 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US consumer price index, from its published calendar, and the move that counts is Bitcoin's.
Each of the 68 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 68 measured cases on 68 separate days, from Jan 13, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
The US consumer price index shapes what the market expects the Fed to do next. A print hotter or cooler than forecast can move Bitcoin within minutes; the open question is whether that first move holds over the following days.
That is the reasoning behind watching CPI releases; whether it held over our 68 cases since 2021 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 68 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against Bitcoin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 68 of the 68 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 68 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results31 up · 15 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 13, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026
Of the 68 cases, 31 ended up, 15 down and 22 sideways (within ±1.5%) a day later; the middle case +1.1%, the average day +1.1%.
ended up (31)ended down (15)sideways, within ±1.5% (22)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 68 | +1.1% | +0.16% | 65% | 53% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 68 | +1.5% | +0.40% | 57% | 54% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 67 | +1.9% | +2.2% | 55% | 56% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +1.5% over 68 cases; 30 days, typical +1.9% over 67 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.14% in 2022 to +2.9% in 2021; 5 of 6 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 12 | +2.9% | 58% | 42% |
| 2022 | 12 | −0.14% | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 | 12 | +1.7% | 67% | 33% |
| 2024 | 12 | +1.1% | 67% | 33% |
| 2025 | 11 | +0.98% | 73% | 27% |
| 2026 | 9 | +1.7% | 78% | 22% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | US CPI for August 2026 | +0.93% | +5.6% | open | |
| BTC | US CPI for July 2026 | −0.17% | +9.0% | +21.4% | |
| BTC | US CPI for June 2026 | +3.9% | +6.8% | +1.9% | |
| BTC | US CPI for May 2026 | +3.1% | +4.5% | +3.9% | |
| BTC | US CPI for April 2026 | −3.0% | −6.0% | −22.2% | |
| BTC | US CPI for March 2026 | +1.7% | +7.4% | +14.5% | |
| BTC | US CPI for February 2026 | +0.85% | +1.9% | +4.3% | |
| BTC | US CPI for January 2026 | +5.4% | +2.6% | +9.9% | |
| BTC | US CPI for December 2025 | +6.2% | −3.1% | −27.4% | |
| BTC | US CPI for November 2025 | +2.2% | +1.1% | +10.3% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from CPI releases showed no clear edge: right 38% of 34 calls since 2023, against 44% for that side on any day (Oct 11, 2023 – Sep 10, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 68 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 65% of 68 days ended higher against 53% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (53% to 75%).
The typical move of +1.1% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−4.7% to +6.0%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 38% of 34 calls since 2023, against 44% for that side on any day).
With 68 cases, a handful of unusual ones can move these numbers.
Markets change, so what CPI releases did from 2021 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did Bitcoin end higher the day after a US CPI release?
- In 65% of 68 cases from Jan 13, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 65% against 53% on Bitcoin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.1% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −4.7% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 68 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 38% of 34 calls since 2023, against 44% for that side on any day).
- The +1.1% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Sep 11, 2026: US CPI for August 2026.
- A day later the move was +0.93%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +2.9% in 2021 (12 cases) and −0.14% in 2022 (12 cases).