Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What does Ether do the day after a US CPI release?
Short answer
68 cases since 2021: in the middle one, Ether moved +1.3% the day after a US CPI release. 59% of the cases ended higher. The best tenth gained +10.7% or better and the worst tenth −6.2% or worse. Over 68 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+1.3%
the next day, the middle case
How often
59%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+10.7%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.2%
or worse
Cases
68
2021-2026, on 68 days
Higher 59% of the time against 52% on ordinary days (68 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern68 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US consumer price index, from its published calendar, and the move that counts is Ether's.
Each of the 68 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 68 measured cases on 68 separate days, from Jan 13, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 14, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
The US consumer price index shapes what the market expects the Fed to do next. A print hotter or cooler than forecast can move Bitcoin within minutes; the open question is whether that first move holds over the following days.
That is the reasoning behind watching CPI releases; whether it held over our 68 cases since 2021 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 68 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against Ether's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 68 of the 68 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 68 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results30 up · 18 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 13, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.3% and the average day at +1.6%; 30 cases ended up, 18 down and 20 sideways (within ±2.1%).
ended up (30)ended down (18)sideways, within ±2.1% (20)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 68 | +1.3% | +0.06% | 59% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 68 | +0.54% | +0.47% | 51% | 53% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 68 | +3.1% | +0.56% | 54% | 53% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +0.54% over 68 cases; 30 days, typical +3.1% over 68 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.45% in 2024 to +3.6% in 2026; 4 of 6 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 12 | −0.34% | 42% | 58% |
| 2022 | 12 | +0.08% | 58% | 42% |
| 2023 | 12 | +0.91% | 58% | 42% |
| 2024 | 12 | −0.45% | 42% | 58% |
| 2025 | 11 | +2.8% | 73% | 27% |
| 2026 | 9 | +3.6% | 89% | 11% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI for August 2026 | +3.6% | +7.1% | +4.0% | |
| US CPI for July 2026 | +0.19% | +19.7% | +33.7% | |
| US CPI for June 2026 | +7.9% | +8.6% | +6.2% | |
| US CPI for May 2026 | +2.1% | +6.8% | +9.6% | |
| US CPI for April 2026 | −3.5% | −9.7% | −28.5% | |
| US CPI for March 2026 | +4.3% | +10.4% | +8.3% | |
| US CPI for February 2026 | +1.8% | +8.2% | +10.2% | |
| US CPI for January 2026 | +7.1% | +1.1% | +11.8% | |
| US CPI for December 2025 | +8.4% | −5.0% | −37.1% | |
| US CPI for November 2025 | +5.2% | +2.5% | +16.8% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from CPI releases showed no clear edge: right 40% of 30 calls since 2023, against 44% for that side on any day (Oct 11, 2023 – Sep 10, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 68 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 59% of 68 days ended higher against 52% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (47% to 70%).
A typical +1.3% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +10.7% and one in 10 beyond −6.2%.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 40% of 30 calls since 2023, against 44% for that side on any day).
With 68 cases, a handful of unusual ones can move these numbers.
The older half of the days leaned −3 points against ordinary days and the newer half +17 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Markets change, so what CPI releases did from 2021 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did Ether end higher the day after a US CPI release?
- In 59% of 68 cases from Jan 13, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 59% against 52% on Ether's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.3% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +10.7% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.2% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 68 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 40% of 30 calls since 2023, against 44% for that side on any day).
- The +1.3% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 14, 2026: US CPI for September 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +3.6% in 2026 (9 cases) and −0.45% in 2024 (12 cases).