Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after an exchange listing?
Short answer
709 cases since 2019: in the middle one, a coin moved −19.5% in the 30 days after an exchange listing. Lower was the outcome 70% of the time. The best tenth gained +47.9% or better and the worst tenth −56.2% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−19.5%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
70%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+47.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−56.2%
or worse
Cases
709
2019-2026, on 436 days
Higher 35% of the time against 46% on ordinary days (101 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern709 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day an exchange listed the coin for spot trading, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 709 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 709 measured cases on 436 separate days, from Nov 13, 2019 to Aug 13, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A new exchange listing opens a coin to a new pool of traders and usually brings a burst of attention. A common view is that much of the jump happens on the news, and that early holders use the new liquidity to cash out.
That is the reasoning behind watching exchange listings; whether it held over our 709 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 709 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 101 of the 436 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 709 cases fall on 436 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results169 up · 344 down
Results
as of · every past case, Nov 13, 2019 to Aug 13, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −19.5% and the average day at −6.6%; 169 cases ended up, 344 down and 196 sideways (within ±16.7%).
ended up (169)ended down (344)sideways, within ±16.7% (196)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 600 369 days | −2.4% | −0.18% | 54% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 711 436 days | −8.7% | −0.45% | 42% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 709 436 days | −19.5% | −4.2% | 35% | 46% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −2.4% over 600 cases; 7 days, typical −8.7% over 711 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −41.4% in 2025 to −7.4% in 2023; 7 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +1.7% over 34 cases; mid caps −7.6% over 108 cases; small caps −15.4% over 243 cases; micro caps −27.5% over 324 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | −23.4% | 0% | 100% |
| 2020 | 44 | −18.7% | 37% | 63% |
| 2021 | 141 | −22.8% | 35% | 65% |
| 2022 | 66 | −27.5% | 22% | 78% |
| 2023 | 147 | −7.4% | 35% | 65% |
| 2024 | 117 | −10.7% | 42% | 58% |
| 2025 | 137 | −41.4% | 14% | 86% |
| 2026 | 55 | −16.8% | 31% | 69% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 34 | +1.7% | 54% | 46% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 108 | −7.6% | 36% | 64% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 243 | −15.4% | 36% | 64% |
| under $50M micro caps | 324 | −27.5% | 24% | 76% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYPE | Binance Will List Hyperliquid (HYPE) with Seed Tag Applied | −1.7% | −6.7% | open | |
| EURC | OKX lists EURC | open | open | open | |
| STX | Binance Will Support the Broadcom (AVGO), Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Meta (META), and Seagat | +25.5% | +29.9% | open | |
| META | Binance Will Support the Broadcom (AVGO), Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Meta (META), and Seagat | −1.6% | +9.8% | open | |
| VVV | OKX lists VVV | +3.0% | +38.5% | open | |
| DOS | OKX lists DOS | −15.1% | −28.8% | −34.7% | |
| GRVT | OKX lists GRVT | +13.1% | +17.5% | −30.1% | |
| XTER | OKX lists XTER | +3.7% | +6.0% | +23.5% | |
| GRVT | [Selected regions only] New listing: GRVT/USDT | Grab a share of the 2,500,000 GRVT prize | open | +23.4% | −32.3% | |
| AEON | OKX lists AEON | −7.3% | −29.7% | −40.9% |
5 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Oct 24, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from exchange listings at 30 days, so the 709 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (35% against 46% over 101 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
Calls made from exchange listings have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 709 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 709 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what exchange listings did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after an exchange listing?
- In 70% of 709 cases from Nov 13, 2019 to Aug 13, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 35% against 46% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −19.5% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +47.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −56.2% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 709 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −19.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Sep 24, 2026: HYPE, Binance Will List Hyperliquid (HYPE) with Seed Tag Applied.
- Its 30-day window closes on Oct 24, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was −7.4% in 2023 (147 cases) and −41.4% in 2025 (137 cases).