Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a micro-cap coin in the 30 days after an exchange listing?
Short answer
324 cases since 2019: in the middle one, a micro-cap coin moved −27.5% in the 30 days after an exchange listing. It ended lower 76% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +41.2% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −57.9% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−27.5%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
76%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+41.2%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−57.9%
or worse
Cases
324
2019-2026, on 247 days
Higher 23% of the time against 43% on ordinary days (40 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern324 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day an exchange listed the coin for spot trading, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 324 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 324 measured cases on 247 separate days, from Nov 13, 2019 to Aug 13, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A new exchange listing opens a coin to a new pool of traders and usually brings a burst of attention. A common view is that much of the jump happens on the news, and that early holders use the new liquidity to cash out.
That is the reasoning behind watching exchange listings; whether it held over our 324 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 324 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 40 of the 247 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 324 cases fall on 247 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results58 up · 187 down
Results
as of · every past case, Nov 13, 2019 to Aug 13, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −27.5% and the average day at −14.9%; 58 cases ended up, 187 down and 79 sideways (within ±17.9%).
ended up (58)ended down (187)sideways, within ±17.9% (79)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 262 199 days | −3.3% | −0.18% | 50% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 324 247 days | −13.4% | −0.87% | 28% | 47% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 324 247 days | −27.5% | −6.2% | 23% | 43% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −3.3% over 262 cases; 7 days, typical −13.4% over 324 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −42.6% in 2025 to −11.8% in 2023; 7 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | −23.4% | 0% | 100% |
| 2020 | 19 | −33.7% | 32% | 68% |
| 2021 | 56 | −37.9% | 16% | 84% |
| 2022 | 25 | −27.4% | 17% | 83% |
| 2023 | 60 | −11.8% | 29% | 71% |
| 2024 | 61 | −17.7% | 36% | 64% |
| 2025 | 73 | −42.6% | 17% | 83% |
| 2026 | 28 | −34.6% | 20% | 80% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Binance Will Support the Broadcom (AVGO), Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Meta (META), and Seagat | −1.6% | +9.8% | open | |
| DOS | OKX lists DOS | −15.1% | −28.8% | −34.7% | |
| GRVT | OKX lists GRVT | +13.1% | +17.5% | −30.1% | |
| XTER | OKX lists XTER | +3.7% | +6.0% | +23.5% | |
| GRVT | [Selected regions only] New listing: GRVT/USDT | Grab a share of the 2,500,000 GRVT prize | open | +23.4% | −32.3% | |
| AEON | OKX lists AEON | −7.3% | −29.7% | −40.9% | |
| SLX | OKX lists SLX | −4.7% | −29.0% | −53.6% | |
| GROVE | Bybit to List GROVE (GROVE) on Spot | −8.9% | −45.3% | −68.1% | |
| NES | OKX lists NES | −27.3% | −30.2% | −7.8% | |
| IRYS | OKX lists IRYS | −14.3% | −26.4% | −49.1% |
1 case still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Oct 18, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from exchange listings at 30 days, so the 324 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (23% against 43% over 40 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
Calls made from exchange listings have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 324 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 324 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what exchange listings did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a micro-cap coin end lower in the 30 days after an exchange listing?
- In 76% of 324 cases from Nov 13, 2019 to Aug 13, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 23% against 43% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved −27.5% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +41.2% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −57.9% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 324 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −27.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Sep 18, 2026: META, Binance Will Support the Broadcom (AVGO), Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Meta (META), and Seagat.
- Its 30-day window closes on Oct 18, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was −11.8% in 2023 (60 cases) and −42.6% in 2025 (73 cases).