Study · re-run every night · updated
What happens after a coin hits a new all-time high?
1,745 times since 2019 a coin among the 300 most traded closed above every close it had before, with a year of closes behind it: a new all-time high. Over the next week it did +2.0% against the market on average, beating it 47% of the time: +5.1% in the older half of the dates, −1.0% in the newer half, from October 2021. After a new all-time low, −0.7% against the market the next day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
New highs
1,745
since 2019
The next week
+2.0%
against the market
Since October 2021
−1.0%
the newer half
Beat the market
47%
the next week
§ 01 · After a high
After a new all-time high
as of · our daily closes, Aug 17, 2017 to Oct 14, 2026
A new all-time high here is a close above every close the coin had before, with at least 365 closes behind it (a young coin makes a new high every other day), on a coin among the 300 most traded that day. From that close: the coin's move over the next day, week and 30 days, against those 300 coins over the same days (equal weight). Each date counts once, so a day when many coins broke out together is one market, not many. The rows past a level count only the first close past a high nothing had beaten for 90 days or a year.
| The close | Held | Events | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Beat it | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| any new high | 1 day | 1,744 | +0.4% | +1.3% | −0.5% | 44% | 1.0 |
| any new high | 7 days | 1,743 | +2.0% | +5.1% | −1.0% | 47% | 1.3 |
| any new high | 30 days | 1,724 | +3.3% | +9.6% | −2.8% | 43% | 0.7 |
| past a 90-day high | 1 day | 160 | −0.0% | +2.4% | −2.4% | 46% | −0.0 |
| past a 90-day high | 7 days | 160 | +0.7% | +5.1% | −3.6% | 45% | 0.3 |
| past a 90-day high | 30 days | 158 | +3.1% | +13.5% | −7.0% | 37% | 0.4 |
| past a 1-year high | 1 day | 77 | −0.1% | +1.7% | −1.9% | 44% | −0.1 |
| past a 1-year high | 7 days | 77 | −0.5% | +1.3% | −2.2% | 44% | −0.1 |
| past a 1-year high | 30 days | 76 | −3.2% | −14.7% | +8.0% | 33% | −0.3 |
The week after a new all-time high: +2.0% against the market, not past the bar of 3.0 with both halves of the dates agreeing: +5.1% in the older half, −1.0% in the newer half, from Oct 25, 2021. "Price discovery" is the claim; on our closes a new high alone has been no edge.
§ 02 · After a low
After a new all-time low
as of · our daily closes, the same days
The mirror: a close under every close the coin had before, the same rules.
| The close | Held | Events | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Beat it | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| any new low | 1 day | 12,946 | −0.7% | −0.0% | −1.4% | 41% | −3.3 ✓ |
| any new low | 7 days | 12,771 | −1.3% | +0.8% | −3.4% | 38% | −1.8 |
| any new low | 30 days | 12,535 | +1.3% | +6.5% | −3.9% | 40% | 0.8 |
| past a 90-day low | 1 day | 753 | −0.1% | −0.7% | +0.5% | 42% | −0.3 |
| past a 90-day low | 7 days | 749 | −0.2% | +0.1% | −0.6% | 42% | −0.3 |
| past a 90-day low | 30 days | 729 | −0.5% | +0.7% | −1.6% | 39% | −0.3 |
| past a 1-year low | 1 day | 244 | +0.7% | −1.7% | +3.1% | 45% | 0.5 |
| past a 1-year low | 7 days | 242 | +1.2% | −1.2% | +3.6% | 45% | 0.8 |
| past a 1-year low | 30 days | 238 | +1.3% | +2.5% | +0.2% | 40% | 0.7 |
Past the bar of 3.0 (✓) with both halves of the dates agreeing: after a new all-time low the coin kept falling, −0.7% against the market the next day.
Could a short be placed? Among the coins that had a perpetual future by then, the next day after a new low was −0.1% against the market (luck test −0.6, 8,351 lows on 692 dates): most of the fall after a new low was in coins nobody could short, often ones on their way off the exchanges.
§ 03 · The newest
The newest highs and lows
as of · the latest closes on file
New all-time highs, the newest first, with the coin's own move since:
- DRV Oct 10, 2026: −22.6% to Oct 14, 2026
- SKY Oct 4, 2026: −26.8% to Oct 14, 2026
- ZEC Sep 26, 2026: −30.6% to Oct 14, 2026
- HYPE Sep 22, 2026: −16.8% to Oct 14, 2026
- AKE Sep 19, 2026: −57.7% to Oct 14, 2026
- TUT Aug 9, 2026: −90.0% to Oct 14, 2026
New all-time lows, the newest first, with the coin's own move since:
§ 04 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Each move starts at the close that set the new high or low, the first price anyone could act on, and is counted against the market over the same days. With 18 tests (highs and lows, three kinds of close, three holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the dates on its side.
Our record holds today's coins and the ones with events on our calendar: a coin that later vanished may be missing, which would make the after look better, never worse. Moves are before trading costs and funding.
§ 05 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- a new high +2.0% the next week · a new low −0.7% the next day · past the bar: any new all-time low, the next day
§ 06 · More
More research
as of