Does Bitcoin go wild on CPI day? Every US inflation release since 2021, tested
69 US CPI releases since 2021. On 57% of them Bitcoin moved more than on its usual weekday of the 20 before, against 50% of the other weekdays; the middle release day moved 1.3 times its usual. It closed CPI day higher on 52% of them, against 49% of the other weekdays; a move of 3% or more either way on 33%, against 26%. Its wildest year was 2022: 11 of 12 release days moved more than usual, 4.6% on average either way against 2.5% on the other weekdays. Neither is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the releases agreeing): the market prices most releases in before 8:30, and the surprise is what moves it. The last release, on Oct 14, 2026 (September 2026's numbers): Bitcoin −1.8%, 1.6 times its usual weekday; the next on Nov 10. Past patterns, not financial advice.
as of · US CPI releases Jan 13, 2021 to Oct 14, 2026 · Bitcoin's daily closes
"CPI day is chaos", the saying goes: the US consumer price index comes out at 8:30 am New York time, about once a month, and traders brace for the candle. Here is every release since 2021 on our hand-checked calendar, and Bitcoin's move that day, close to close. A wild year makes every day wild, so each release day is set against its own weeks: its move, up or down, against Bitcoin's usual weekday of the 20 before it - the middle move of those weekdays, leaving out other release days and Fed decisions.
The next release: Nov 10, 2026, with October 2026's numbers, 8:30 am New York time. The last, on Oct 14, 2026 (September 2026): Bitcoin −1.8%, against a usual weekday of 1.1% either way - 1.6 times it.
Bitcoin up that daydownits usual weekday, either way
§ 02 · The test
CPI day against other days
as of · Bitcoin's move on the release day, close to close
CPI days
Others
Luck
Bigger than usual
57% 39 of 69
50%
1.1
Closed up
52% 36 of 69
49%
0.6
Moved 3%+
33%
26%
—
Average move
2.7%
2.3%
—
On 57% of the 69 release days Bitcoin moved more than its usual weekday of the 20 before; the other weekdays since Jan 13, 2021 (1,387 of them, set against their own weeks the same way) did so 50% of the time, and the middle release day moved 1.3 times its usual, the middle other weekday 1.0 times. A luck test of 1.1, not past the bar of 3.0 (the older half of the releases +9% against their weekdays, the newer +4%).
Bitcoin closed 52% of release days higher, against 49% of other weekdays. A luck test of 0.6, not past the bar: a direction the market cannot know before the number is out.
§ 03 · Every release
Every release day
as of · newest first
Release
Bitcoin
× usual
Next 7 days
Oct 14, 2026 September 2026
−1.8%
1.6×
—
Sep 11, 2026 August 2026
+0.9%
0.6×
+4.7%
Aug 12, 2026 July 2026
−0.2%
0.2×
+9.2%
Jul 14, 2026 June 2026
+4.3%
2.7×
+2.3%
Jun 10, 2026 May 2026
−0.4%
0.2×
+4.9%
May 12, 2026 April 2026
−1.5%
1.3×
−4.6%
Apr 10, 2026 March 2026
+1.6%
1.4×
+5.6%
Mar 11, 2026 February 2026
+0.3%
0.2×
+1.5%
Feb 13, 2026 January 2026
+3.9%
2.4×
−1.2%
Jan 13, 2026 December 2025
+4.5%
4.1×
−7.3%
Dec 18, 2025 November 2025
−0.8%
0.5×
+2.0%
Oct 24, 2025 September 2025
+0.8%
0.5×
−1.3%
Sep 11, 2025 August 2025
+1.3%
1.1×
+1.4%
Aug 12, 2025 July 2025
+1.2%
1.6×
−6.0%
Jul 15, 2025 June 2025
−1.7%
1.5×
+1.9%
Jun 11, 2025 May 2025
−1.5%
1.6×
−3.5%
May 13, 2025 April 2025
+1.3%
1.4×
+2.6%
Apr 10, 2025 March 2025
−3.6%
2.2×
+6.7%
Mar 12, 2025 February 2025
+0.9%
0.5×
+3.8%
Feb 12, 2025 January 2025
+2.2%
2.2×
−1.3%
Jan 15, 2025 December 2024
+4.1%
2.3×
+3.2%
Dec 11, 2024 November 2024
+4.7%
2.4×
−0.9%
Nov 13, 2024 October 2024
+2.8%
1.8×
+4.3%
Oct 10, 2024 September 2024
−0.5%
0.3×
+11.8%
Sep 11, 2024 August 2024
−0.5%
0.2×
+7.7%
Aug 14, 2024 July 2024
−3.1%
2.1×
+4.2%
Jul 11, 2024 June 2024
−0.7%
0.5×
+11.6%
Jun 12, 2024 May 2024
+1.4%
1.0×
−4.8%
May 15, 2024 April 2024
+7.5%
3.8×
+4.5%
Apr 10, 2024 March 2024
+2.1%
0.9×
−13.2%
Mar 12, 2024 February 2024
−0.9%
0.4×
−13.3%
Feb 13, 2024 January 2024
−0.4%
0.3×
+5.1%
Jan 11, 2024 December 2023
−0.7%
0.4×
−10.8%
Dec 12, 2023 November 2023
+0.6%
0.4×
+1.9%
Nov 14, 2023 October 2023
−2.5%
2.1×
+0.5%
Oct 12, 2023 September 2023
−0.4%
0.4×
+7.3%
Sep 13, 2023 August 2023
+1.5%
1.1×
+3.4%
Aug 10, 2023 July 2023
−0.4%
1.0×
−9.6%
Jul 12, 2023 June 2023
−0.8%
0.5×
−1.5%
Jun 13, 2023 May 2023
+0.1%
0.1×
+9.2%
May 10, 2023 April 2023
−0.1%
0.0×
−0.7%
Apr 12, 2023 March 2023
−1.0%
0.7×
−3.7%
Mar 14, 2023 February 2023
+2.3%
1.3×
+13.9%
Feb 14, 2023 January 2023
+2.0%
1.6×
+10.1%
Jan 12, 2023 December 2022
+5.0%
8.2×
+11.8%
Dec 13, 2022 November 2022
+3.3%
2.7×
−4.9%
Nov 10, 2022 October 2022
+10.5%
8.9×
−5.2%
Oct 13, 2022 September 2022
+1.1%
1.2×
−1.7%
Sep 13, 2022 August 2022
−9.9%
8.9×
−6.4%
Aug 10, 2022 July 2022
+3.5%
1.8×
−2.6%
Jul 13, 2022 June 2022
+4.7%
2.7×
+14.8%
Jun 10, 2022 May 2022
−3.4%
1.5×
−29.6%
May 11, 2022 April 2022
−6.2%
2.4×
−1.3%
Apr 12, 2022 March 2022
+1.4%
0.9×
+3.5%
Mar 10, 2022 February 2022
−6.0%
2.2×
+3.8%
Feb 10, 2022 January 2022
−2.0%
1.3×
−6.9%
Jan 12, 2022 December 2021
+2.7%
1.3×
−5.1%
Dec 10, 2021 November 2021
−0.9%
0.4×
−2.1%
Nov 10, 2021 October 2021
−3.1%
1.0×
−7.0%
Oct 13, 2021 September 2021
+2.4%
0.9×
+15.1%
Sep 14, 2021 August 2021
+4.8%
1.8×
−13.5%
Aug 11, 2021 July 2021
−0.2%
0.1×
−1.8%
Jul 13, 2021 June 2021
−1.1%
0.4×
−9.0%
Jun 10, 2021 May 2021
−1.9%
0.4×
+3.9%
May 12, 2021 April 2021
−12.4%
6.7×
−26.1%
Apr 13, 2021 March 2021
+6.2%
3.2×
−11.2%
Mar 10, 2021 February 2021
+1.8%
0.5×
+5.5%
Feb 10, 2021 January 2021
−3.5%
0.9×
+16.3%
Jan 13, 2021 December 2020
+9.8%
3.1×
−5.1%
§ 04 · Years
Year by year
as of · Bitcoin's average move, either way
Year
CPI days
Other weekdays
Bigger than usual
2021
4.0%
3.5%
5 of 12
2022
4.6%
2.5%
11 of 12
2023
1.4%
1.8%
5 of 12
2024
2.1%
2.3%
4 of 12
2025
1.8%
1.8%
8 of 11
2026
1.9%
1.9%
6 of 10
§ 05 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
The dates are BLS's own release days, checked by hand against its archive (the calendar's macro file; the 2025 shutdown's delayed and cancelled releases as they happened). The release comes out at 8:30 am New York time, inside that UTC day's candle, so the day's move from the close before carries it. Each day's usual move is the middle move, up or down, of the 20 weekdays before it that were no release or Fed decision day: nothing after the day. The luck test counts the release days bigger than their usual against the share of every other weekday that was (a binomial z), and the same for the days that closed up; with two tests a result needs 3.0 or more, and the older and the newer half of the releases each against the weekdays of its own years on the same side.
The rule - the 20 weekdays, "bigger than the middle one" - was set before any number here was read. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 06 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
CPI days with a bigger move than Bitcoin's usual weekday 57% (other weekdays 50%) · closed up 52%