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Do altcoins come back after an 80% crash? Every crash on our record, dead coins included, tested

622 coins whose prices we hold from their first day of trading, those that stopped trading included: 653 times one closed 80% or more under its all-time high, 516 times 90% or more. Of the 80% crashes at least two years old, 53 of 342 (15%) closed above the old high again within two years; of the 90% crashes, 19 of 237 (8%). 13 of 462 coins that fell 80% stopped trading within a year without getting back. Bought at the close of the 80% crash and held a year, the coin did +38% on average (−52% in the middle case) and −22% against Bitcoin, ahead of it 19% of the time. Against the other coins, no level is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves agreeing). Past patterns, not financial advice.

Back from −80%

15%

within 2 years, 53 of 342

Back from −90%

8%

within 2 years, 19 of 237

The year after −80%

−22%

against Bitcoin

Today

69 of 100

top coins 80% under their high

First written · 1 revision

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§ 01 · Today

Today

as of · our daily closes, Jan 30, 2018 to Oct 14, 2026

"It always comes back": the hope of every coin holder after a crash. Here is every time a coin on our record fell 50%, 80% or 90% under its all-time high, and what came after - including the coins that never came back because they stopped trading. To be sure a coin's highest close is its all-time high, only coins whose prices we hold from their first day of trading on Binance count (622 of them); 435 coins whose history starts later, 2 whose record the price screen split and 1 already trading on our first day are left out.

Oct 14, 2026: of the 100 most traded of those coins, 88 close 50% or more under their all-time high, 69 80% or more and 47 90% or more. The furthest under:

  • GALA −100% from $0.7422, Nov 25, 2021
  • SAGA −100% from $6.56, Apr 9, 2024
  • MOVR −100% from $401.10, Nov 23, 2021
  • ONE −100% from $0.3559, Jan 14, 2022
  • FIL −99% from $190.86, Mar 31, 2021
  • AXS −99% from $160.38, Nov 7, 2021
  • SAND −99% from $7.51, Nov 28, 2021
  • ICP −99% from $364.01, May 11, 2021
  • ACE −99% from $15.39, Dec 21, 2023
  • MINA −99% from $6.16, Sep 14, 2021

§ 02 · Came back?

Did they come back?

as of · a close above the old all-time high

The share of altcoin crashes followed by a close above the old high, by days since the crash: after 50%, 43% within 730 days; after 80%, 15% within 730 days; after 90%, 8% within 730 daysBack above the old high, by days since the crash25%1 year2 years0 days after the crash · after 50%: 0% back above the high · after 80%: 0% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high30 days after the crash · after 50%: 3% back above the high · after 80%: 0% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high60 days after the crash · after 50%: 8% back above the high · after 80%: 1% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high90 days after the crash · after 50%: 13% back above the high · after 80%: 1% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high120 days after the crash · after 50%: 18% back above the high · after 80%: 3% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high150 days after the crash · after 50%: 25% back above the high · after 80%: 4% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high180 days after the crash · after 50%: 30% back above the high · after 80%: 6% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high210 days after the crash · after 50%: 32% back above the high · after 80%: 6% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high240 days after the crash · after 50%: 33% back above the high · after 80%: 6% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high270 days after the crash · after 50%: 34% back above the high · after 80%: 7% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high300 days after the crash · after 50%: 35% back above the high · after 80%: 8% back above the high · after 90%: 3% back above the high330 days after the crash · after 50%: 36% back above the high · after 80%: 8% back above the high · after 90%: 3% back above the high360 days after the crash · after 50%: 37% back above the high · after 80%: 10% back above the high · after 90%: 3% back above the high390 days after the crash · after 50%: 38% back above the high · after 80%: 10% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high420 days after the crash · after 50%: 39% back above the high · after 80%: 11% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high450 days after the crash · after 50%: 40% back above the high · after 80%: 11% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high480 days after the crash · after 50%: 40% back above the high · after 80%: 11% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high510 days after the crash · after 50%: 40% back above the high · after 80%: 13% back above the high · after 90%: 6% back above the high540 days after the crash · after 50%: 41% back above the high · after 80%: 13% back above the high · after 90%: 6% back above the high570 days after the crash · after 50%: 41% back above the high · after 80%: 13% back above the high · after 90%: 6% back above the high600 days after the crash · after 50%: 42% back above the high · after 80%: 14% back above the high · after 90%: 7% back above the high630 days after the crash · after 50%: 42% back above the high · after 80%: 14% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high660 days after the crash · after 50%: 42% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high690 days after the crash · after 50%: 43% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high720 days after the crash · after 50%: 43% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high730 days after the crash · after 50%: 43% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the highThe share of altcoin crashes followed by a close above the old high, by days since the crash: after 50%, 43% within 730 days; after 80%, 15% within 730 days; after 90%, 8% within 730 daysBack above the old high25%1 year2 years0 days after the crash · after 50%: 0% back above the high · after 80%: 0% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high30 days after the crash · after 50%: 3% back above the high · after 80%: 0% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high60 days after the crash · after 50%: 8% back above the high · after 80%: 1% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high90 days after the crash · after 50%: 13% back above the high · after 80%: 1% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high120 days after the crash · after 50%: 18% back above the high · after 80%: 3% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high150 days after the crash · after 50%: 25% back above the high · after 80%: 4% back above the high · after 90%: 0% back above the high180 days after the crash · after 50%: 30% back above the high · after 80%: 6% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high210 days after the crash · after 50%: 32% back above the high · after 80%: 6% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high240 days after the crash · after 50%: 33% back above the high · after 80%: 6% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high270 days after the crash · after 50%: 34% back above the high · after 80%: 7% back above the high · after 90%: 1% back above the high300 days after the crash · after 50%: 35% back above the high · after 80%: 8% back above the high · after 90%: 3% back above the high330 days after the crash · after 50%: 36% back above the high · after 80%: 8% back above the high · after 90%: 3% back above the high360 days after the crash · after 50%: 37% back above the high · after 80%: 10% back above the high · after 90%: 3% back above the high390 days after the crash · after 50%: 38% back above the high · after 80%: 10% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high420 days after the crash · after 50%: 39% back above the high · after 80%: 11% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high450 days after the crash · after 50%: 40% back above the high · after 80%: 11% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high480 days after the crash · after 50%: 40% back above the high · after 80%: 11% back above the high · after 90%: 5% back above the high510 days after the crash · after 50%: 40% back above the high · after 80%: 13% back above the high · after 90%: 6% back above the high540 days after the crash · after 50%: 41% back above the high · after 80%: 13% back above the high · after 90%: 6% back above the high570 days after the crash · after 50%: 41% back above the high · after 80%: 13% back above the high · after 90%: 6% back above the high600 days after the crash · after 50%: 42% back above the high · after 80%: 14% back above the high · after 90%: 7% back above the high630 days after the crash · after 50%: 42% back above the high · after 80%: 14% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high660 days after the crash · after 50%: 42% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high690 days after the crash · after 50%: 43% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high720 days after the crash · after 50%: 43% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high730 days after the crash · after 50%: 43% back above the high · after 80%: 15% back above the high · after 90%: 8% back above the high

after a 50% crashafter 80%after 90%the crashes at least 730 days old

FellCrashesBack within a yearTwo yearsThree yearsBack so farMiddle waitStopped within a year
50% or more1,000 616 coins 34% 276 of 82343% 265 of 61251% 260 of 513 39% 135 days 1% 12 of 823
80% or more653 577 coins 9% 40 of 46215% 53 of 34222% 65 of 299 13% 266 days 3% 13 of 462
90% or more516 492 coins 3% 11 of 3418% 19 of 23712% 27 of 230 6% 380 days 5% 17 of 341

Back within a year, two or three: a close above the old high within that many days, of the crashes at least that old (a younger one has not had the time). Back so far counts every crash; the middle wait is that of the ones that came back. Stopped within a year: the coin's last close came within a year of the crash, without getting back first.

§ 03 · The year after

The year after

as of · from the crash's close, the next 365 days

Bought at the close of the crash and held a year (a coin that stopped trading: to its last close), against holding Bitcoin over the same days. Last, the luck test's own number: every coin within a year of such a crash held together in equal stakes, day by day, against the other coins on our record - coins swing harder than Bitcoin, and equal stakes in swinging coins earn more than their typical coin, so the fair yardstick is coins. "Top 100": the coins among the 100 most traded on the day of the crash.

FellCrashesThe coinAgainst BitcoinAheadAgainst the other coins, a yearLuck test
50% 823 +89% −62% middle −12% −57% middle 19% +16% 1.2
50% top 100 570 +143% −59% middle −5% −58% middle 20% +4% 0.3
80% 462 +38% −52% middle −22% −45% middle 19% +11% 1.0
80% top 100 219 +121% −50% middle −20% −49% middle 21% −5% −0.4
90% 341 +180% −37% middle −11% −44% middle 21% +5% 0.3
90% top 100 126 +500% −37% middle +3% −49% middle 18% −8% −0.5

After an 80% crash the coin did +38% over the next year on average and −52% in the middle case: a few huge rebounds lift the average over a typical loss. Against Bitcoin, −22% on average, ahead 19% of the time. Held together against the other coins, +11% a year: a luck test of 1.0, not past the bar of 3.0.

§ 04 · Newest

The newest crashes

as of · the latest 80% and 90% crashes on our record

  • APR −90% on Oct 13, 2026 from its high of Oct 23, 2025
  • SLX −90% on Oct 12, 2026 from its high of Jun 28, 2026
  • SQD −90% on Oct 8, 2026 from its high of May 23, 2025
  • STAR −80% on Sep 15, 2026 from its high of Jul 17, 2026
  • XPIN −90% on Sep 13, 2026 from its high of Oct 23, 2025
  • CLANKER −90% on Sep 10, 2026 from its high of Oct 27, 2025
  • CYS −90% on Sep 9, 2026 from its high of Aug 12, 2026
  • COLLECT −80% on Sep 9, 2026 from its high of Jan 20, 2026
  • CYS −80% on Sep 3, 2026 from its high of Aug 12, 2026
  • TRIA −90% on Aug 31, 2026 from its high of May 15, 2026

§ 05 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

A crash is a coin's first close 50%, 80% or 90% under the highest close before it; it counts again only after the coin closes above that high. Only coins whose closes we hold from their first Binance day count, so the high is the all-time high and no coin is left out for having died: a coin that stopped trading keeps its last close. Every number was fixed before any was read: the three levels, the one, two and three years, the year's hold, the top 100.

Crashes come in waves - whole markets fall together - so the luck test does not count coins as separate evidence: it holds every coin within a year of such a crash as one portfolio in equal stakes, day by day, against the other coins on our record in equal stakes, the days as its cases (a Newey-West error over ten days). Against Bitcoin it would mislead: equal stakes in coins that swing as hard as altcoins earn more than their typical coin even when nothing happens, and Bitcoin swings less. With 6 tests, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more, with the older and the newer half of the days on its side. Moves are prices only, before trading costs; a delisted coin's last price may be higher than what a holder could get.

§ 06 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

  1. Back above the high within two years after an 80% crash: 15% · the year after against Bitcoin −22%

§ 07 · More

More research

as of