Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Do hedge funds' CME shorts sink Bitcoin? Every CFTC report since 2017, tested

In the CFTC's report for Tuesday Oct 6, leveraged funds - hedge funds - held a net short of 6,852 CME Bitcoin contracts (5 Bitcoin each), 32% of the open interest: the year's least short (a rank of 90 of 100 against the year of reports before it, 0 the most short). On the 630 days since 2018 their position was the most short of its year, Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +5.2% over the next 30 days on average; after every day, +4.5%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the funds' positions move in long stretches, and a few of them decide the averages. Since the spot Bitcoin ETFs began in January 2024, much of the funds' short is one leg of a basis trade - long the ETF, short the future, for the gap between their prices - not a bet on where Bitcoin goes. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Hedge funds, net

−6,852

CME contracts, 5 Bitcoin each

Of open interest

32%

net short; the year's least short

After the most short

+5.2%

Bitcoin, the next 30 days

Every day

+4.5%

Bitcoin, the next 30 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today's positions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · the CFTC's weekly reports, Oct 9, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026

Every Friday the CFTC, the US futures regulator, publishes who held CME's Bitcoin futures on the Tuesday before: leveraged funds (hedge funds), asset managers and dealers, long and short. When the hedge funds' short grows, headlines call it a bet against Bitcoin. Here their net position is taken as a share of all the contracts open, ranked against the year of reports before it - 0 the most short of its year, 100 the least - and every day after a report is out is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close, held 7, 30 or 90 days.

The report for Tuesday Oct 6, 2026: hedge funds net short 6,852 contracts (5 Bitcoin each), 32% of the 21,432 open: the year's least short (a rank of 90). Asset managers were net long 3,532. The most short on record: 66% of the open interest, on Mar 4, 2025.

hedge funds' net, a share of the open interestthe most short of its yearthe least short

Every report since 2018, free as JSON for your own charts and bots: /api/v1/cot.json (the free API).

Since the spot Bitcoin ETFs began in January 2024, much of the funds' short is one leg of a basis trade: buy the ETF, sell the future, and collect the gap between the two prices. A short held against a long elsewhere is not a bet on where Bitcoin goes, which is one more reason to test the saying rather than repeat it.

§ 02 · After them

What came after them

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the close after each report

Bitcoin's average next 30 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

The funds' position	Days	Stretches	Next 7 days	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
The year's most short more short than 90% of its year	630	29	+1.7%	+5.2%	+21.8%
Shorter than usual ranked 11 to 50 of 100 in its year	1,064	50	+1.1%	+7.4%	+24.2%
Less short than usual ranked 51 to 89 of 100 in its year	796	46	+0.4%	+0.8%	+3.8%
The year's least short less short than 90% of its year	427	22	+0.8%	+3.0%	+12.9%
every day	2,917	—	+1.0%	+4.5%	+16.8%

Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

The funds' position	Next 7 days	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
The year's most short	+1.0% t 0.9	+0.9% t 0.2	+6.5% t 0.5
Shorter than usual	+0.1% t 0.1	+4.6% t 1.5	+11.9% t 1.3
Less short than usual	−0.8% t −1.0	−5.1% t −1.6	−17.5% t −1.7
The year's least short	−0.3% t −0.3	−1.8% t −0.4	−4.5% t −0.3

The year's most short (more short than 90% of its year) on 630 days in 29 separate stretches, the last on Apr 4, 2025. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 30 days 58% of the time (+3.1% in the middle case, +5.2% on average): +0.9% against the other days, +3.0% in the older half of the days and −1.6% in the newer. A luck test of 0.2, not past the bar of 3.0: 30 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

The year's least short (less short than 90% of its year) on 420 days in 21 separate stretches, the last on Oct 14, 2026. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 30 days 60% of the time (+2.1% in the middle case, +3.0% on average): −1.8% against the other days, −12.3% in the older half of the days and +2.3% in the newer. A luck test of −0.4, not past the bar of 3.0: 20 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

The positions are the CFTC's Traders in Financial Futures for CME's Bitcoin futures (public data, every report since the contracts began in December 2017): leveraged funds' longs less their shorts, over the open interest. A Tuesday's report is out on Friday afternoon in New York, so it is read from our close four days on, Saturday's, and carried at most two weeks. Each report is ranked against the 52 before it (at least half a year of them), so the bands follow the funds' own range as the market grew: the most short tenth of their year, shorter than the middle, less short, and the least short tenth. The bands were set before any number was read. Neighbouring days share most of their holds, so a band counts as the holds that share no day; with 12 tests a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs. The funds' position is one input among many and the short side has partly been a carry trade since 2024; a verdict here would say what came after, not why.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next 30 days against the other days: after the funds' most short +1% · after their least short −2%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026