Study · re-run every night · updated
Does buying Bitcoin at extreme fear work? The Fear & Greed Index, tested
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 53 today (neutral). On the 243 days since 2018 it read 15 or under (extreme fear), Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +4.3% over the next 30 days on average, against +3.9% after the other days; over 90 days, +6.2% against +14.6%. The extreme fear days came in 25 separate stretches: none of the bands is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing). Past patterns, not financial advice.
Today
53
neutral
Extreme fear
+4.3%
Bitcoin, the next 30 days
Other days
+3.9%
Bitcoin, the next 30 days
Extreme greed
+31.6%
Bitcoin, the next 30 days
§ 01 · After each reading
Bitcoin after each reading
as of · readings from Feb 1, 2018, closes to Oct 14, 2026
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is alternative.me's daily reading of the market's mood, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), published at 00:00 UTC. "Be greedy when others are fearful" says buy at the low end. Here every day with a reading is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close, a day after the reading came out, held 7, 30 or 90 days.
Bitcoin's average next 30 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days
| Reading | Days | Stretches | Next 7 days | Next 30 days | Next 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| extreme fear 0-15 | 243 | 25 | +1.3% | +4.3% | +6.2% |
| fear 16-44 | 1,351 | 49 | +0.2% | +1.2% | +6.3% |
| neutral 45-55 | 494 | 63 | +0.6% | +4.2% | +19.6% |
| greed 56-84 | 961 | 36 | +1.3% | +4.8% | +14.8% |
| extreme greed 85-100 | 95 | 7 | +7.4% | +31.6% | +102.0% |
| every day | 3,144 | — | +0.9% | +3.9% | +14.0% |
Days and stretches count the days with 30 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):
| Reading | Next 7 days | Next 30 days | Next 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| extreme fear | +0.5% t 0.3 |
+0.4% t 0.1 |
−8.4% t −0.6 |
| fear | −1.2% t −1.7 |
−4.8% t −1.7 |
−13.3% t −1.4 |
| neutral | −0.3% t −0.4 |
+0.4% t 0.1 |
+6.7% t 0.8 |
| greed | +0.6% t 0.7 |
+1.2% t 0.4 |
+1.2% t 0.1 |
| extreme greed | +6.7% t 2.0 |
+28.6% t 1.5 |
too few |
§ 02 · The extremes
Extreme fear and extreme greed
as of · the two ends of the scale, over 30 days
The latest reading: 53, neutral (Oct 15, 2026).
Extreme fear (15 or under) came on 243 days in 25 separate stretches, the last on Jul 1, 2026. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 30 days 65% of the time (+4.2% in the middle case, +4.3% on average): +0.4% against the other days, +3.8% in the older half of the days and −2.3% in the newer. A luck test of 0.1, not past the bar of 3.0: with 25 stretches, a few big swings decide the average.
Extreme greed (85 or over) came on 95 days in 7 separate stretches, the last on Dec 17, 2024. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 30 days 87% of the time (+23.8% in the middle case, +31.6% on average): +28.6% against the other days, +31.6% in the older half of the days and +1.4% in the newer. A luck test of 1.5, not past the bar of 3.0: with 7 stretches, a few big swings decide the average.
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Every day with a reading is a buy at that day's close: the reading comes out at 00:00 UTC, so that close is one anybody could have had. Neighbouring days share most of their 7, 30 or 90 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold, which takes out the years Bitcoin simply rose. The averages on this page use every day. With 14 tests (five bands, three holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.
Fear and greed come in stretches: hundreds of days can be a dozen episodes, and a few of them can carry an average. Moves are Bitcoin's, before trading costs.
§ 04 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- over the next 30 days against the other days: extreme fear 0% · extreme greed +29%
§ 05 · More
More research
as of