Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

When the VIX spikes, does Bitcoin bounce? Wall Street's fear gauge against Bitcoin, tested

The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, closed at 15.3 on Oct 13 (normal). Its highest close since 2014: 82.7 on Mar 16, 2020. On the 226 days since 2014 it stood at 30 or more (fear), Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +9.6% over the next 30 days on average, against +5.0% after the other days; under 15 (calm), +7.2%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): Wall Street's panics come in a few short bursts, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.

The VIX

15.3

normal, Oct 13

After fear (30+)

+9.6%

Bitcoin, the next 30 days

After calm (under 15)

+7.2%

Bitcoin, the next 30 days

Every day

+5.2%

Bitcoin, the next 30 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today's VIX

as of Oct 15, 2026 · The VIX from FRED, Jan 2, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026

The VIX is Wall Street's fear gauge: the volatility the S&P 500's options price in for the next 30 days. It sits near 12 to 20 in quiet years and jumps past 30 when stocks panic. "When Wall Street panics, Bitcoin is a bargain", some say; others that Bitcoin falls with everything else. Here each day's VIX close (Cboe's index, from FRED) falls in one of four bands - calm under 15, normal 15 to 20, nervous 20 to 30, fear at 30 or more - and every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close, held 7, 30 or 90 days, against all the other days.

Oct 13, 2026: the VIX at 15.3, normal. Its highest close on our record: 82.7 on Mar 16, 2020.

the VIX (a log scale)nervous, 20 to 30fear, 30 or more

§ 02 · After it

What came after it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next 30 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

The VIX	Days	Stretches	Next 7 days	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
calm under 15	1,806	46	+1.8%	+7.2%	+25.0%
normal 15 to 20	1,545	75	−0.1%	+0.8%	+6.9%
nervous 20 to 30	1,062	61	+1.7%	+7.4%	+23.8%
fear 30 or more	226	18	+1.9%	+9.6%	+21.6%
every day	4,639	—	+1.1%	+5.2%	+18.6%

Days and stretches count the days with 30 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

The VIX	Next 7 days	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
under 15	+1.0% t 1.5	+3.3% t 1.0	+10.5% t 0.9
15 to 20	−1.8% t −3.0	−6.6% t −2.6	−17.4% t −2.1
20 to 30	+0.7% t 1.0	+2.8% t 0.9	+6.7% t 0.6
30 or more	+0.8% t 0.4	+4.5% t 0.8	+3.1% t 0.2

Fear (the VIX 30 or more) came on 226 days in 18 separate stretches, the last on Mar 30, 2026. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 30 days 69% of the time (+7.9% in the middle case, +9.6% on average): +4.5% against the other days, +7.8% in the older half of the days and +2.9% in the newer. A luck test of 0.8, not past the bar of 3.0: 14 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

Calm (the VIX under 15) came on 1,806 days in 46 separate stretches, the last on Oct 11, 2026. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 30 days 56% of the time (+2.6% in the middle case, +7.2% on average): +3.3% against the other days, +4.9% in the older half of the days and +0.3% in the newer. A luck test of 1.0, not past the bar of 3.0: 74 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

The VIX closes at 16:15 in New York, hours before Bitcoin's daily close at midnight UTC, so each day's VIX close is set against Bitcoin bought at that same day's close; over weekends and holidays the last close carries (five days at most). Neighbouring days share most of their 7, 30 or 90 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold. With 12 tests (four bands, three holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: 15, 20 and 30, the lines traders quote. Panics are short and few, so the fear band rests on a handful of episodes. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next 30 days against the other days: after fear (the VIX 30+) +5% · after calm +3%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026