Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Golden cross, death cross: what came after? Bitcoin's crosses and the top 100 coins', tested

Bitcoin's 50-day average stood 12.4% over its 200-day average on Oct 14; its last cross was a golden cross on Sep 8, 2026. After its 10 golden crosses since 2014, Bitcoin did +21.4% over the next 90 days on average; after every day, +19.9%. Among the 100 most traded coins, a golden cross was followed by −1.8% against the market over 90 days (633 crosses), a death cross by −4.4%. Neither cross is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves agreeing): the averages lag the price, so a cross comes after much of the move. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

+12.4%

the 50-day against the 200-day

Last cross

golden

Sep 8, 2026

After a golden cross

−1.8%

the top coins against the market, 90 days

After a death cross

−4.4%

the top coins against the market, 90 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Bitcoin

Bitcoin's crosses

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's daily closes, Jul 19, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026

A golden cross is the day the average of a coin's last 50 closes moves over the average of its last 200; a death cross, the day it falls under it. Chart watchers read the first as the start of a rise and the second as more to come on the way down. Both averages are made of past prices, so a cross comes after a good part of the move it describes. Here every cross is a buy at that day's close, nothing read before it.

Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin's 50-day average is +12.4% against its 200-day ($81,193 against $72,243); its last cross was a golden cross on Sep 8, 2026.

Bitcoin (a log scale)its 50-day averageits 200-daya golden crossa death cross

Cross	Date	Bitcoin	Next 30 days	Next 90 days	Next 180 days
golden cross	Sep 8, 2026	$78,456	+4.2%	—	—
death cross	Nov 16, 2025	$94,261	−6.8%	−25.9%	−16.1%
golden cross	May 22, 2025	$111,696	−8.6%	+2.3%	−16.8%
death cross	Apr 7, 2025	$79,163	+22.6%	+37.9%	+54.6%
golden cross	Oct 28, 2024	$69,962	+37.0%	+46.7%	+35.3%
death cross	Aug 10, 2024	$60,924	−6.4%	+25.6%	+58.5%
golden cross	Oct 30, 2023	$34,475	+9.8%	+21.9%	+84.1%
death cross	Sep 12, 2023	$25,840	+3.6%	+59.6%	+166.9%
golden cross	Feb 7, 2023	$23,240	−12.4%	+19.1%	+25.2%
death cross	Jan 14, 2022	$43,060	−2.3%	−7.2%	−53.0%
golden cross	Sep 15, 2021	$48,121	+28.2%	+0.5%	−17.6%
death cross	Jun 19, 2021	$35,484	−13.1%	+33.3%	+34.2%
golden cross	May 21, 2020	$9,069	+3.2%	+29.6%	+94.7%
death cross	Mar 25, 2020	$6,677	+12.4%	+44.1%	+56.0%
golden cross	Feb 18, 2020	$10,165	−39.4%	−4.2%	+17.2%
death cross	Oct 26, 2019	$9,230	−23.0%	−8.6%	−18.9%
golden cross	Apr 24, 2019	$5,415	+47.1%	+82.2%	+51.4%
death cross	Mar 31, 2018	$6,924	+33.5%	−10.5%	−3.4%
golden cross	Oct 28, 2015	$305.67	+16.8%	+28.2%	+51.3%
death cross	Sep 15, 2015	$230.03	+10.6%	+92.7%	+79.6%
golden cross	Jul 15, 2015	$285.67	−7.1%	−12.6%	+56.8%
death cross	Sep 4, 2014	$487.43	−33.1%	−23.0%	−42.4%
every day	since Jul 19, 2014	—	+5.6%	+19.9%	+48.6%

Bitcoin after	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
a golden cross	+7.2% vs +5.6% t 0.2	+21.4% vs +19.9% t 0.1
a death cross	−0.2% vs +5.6% t −0.9	+19.8% vs +19.9% t −0.0

Each kind of cross against all of Bitcoin's other days over the same hold, the luck test under it (✓ past the bar of 3.0, both halves of the days agreeing). Bitcoin crosses its averages a few times in a market cycle: a handful of crosses is a handful of cases, and the test says so.

§ 02 · Coins

The top coins' crosses

as of Oct 15, 2026 · the 100 most traded coins each day

The same crosses on each day's 100 most traded coins (stablecoins left out): 704 golden crosses and 578 death crosses. Each coin's move after its cross, less the market's over the same days (the equal-weight move of the most traded coins), so a rising market does not make every golden cross look good. The coins that crossed on the same day count as one day.

After	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
a golden cross	−1.6% against the market 669 crosses on 475 days · t −1.2	−1.8% against the market 633 crosses on 450 days · t −1.0
a death cross	−2.6% against the market 574 crosses on 425 days · t −2.2	−4.4% against the market 566 crosses on 417 days · t −1.2

No cross is clear of luck among the top coins (a luck test of 3.0 with both halves of the days agreeing).

§ 03 · Newest

The newest crosses

as of Oct 15, 2026 · the top coins, newest first

Coin	Cross	Date	Since
RENDER	golden cross	Oct 13, 2026	−4.0% to Oct 14, 2026
FET	golden cross	Oct 12, 2026	−7.6% to Oct 14, 2026
ONE	golden cross	Oct 12, 2026	−15.3% to Oct 14, 2026
DOT	golden cross	Oct 9, 2026	−7.2% to Oct 14, 2026
FLOKI	golden cross	Oct 8, 2026	−4.7% to Oct 14, 2026
STRK	golden cross	Oct 7, 2026	+56.9% to Oct 14, 2026
ZRO	golden cross	Oct 6, 2026	−16.0% to Oct 14, 2026
SEI	golden cross	Oct 6, 2026	−13.4% to Oct 14, 2026

A coin's newest cross only. The move since is the coin's own, not against the market: a list, not a tip.

§ 04 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Both averages take the cross day's close and the ones before it, never one after, and both need every close of their window on file. Bitcoin's crosses are set against all of its other days over the same hold, each calendar day weighing in by how many holds cover it, so a cross counts as the holds that share no day. The top coins' crosses are each set against the market over the same days, each day with crosses one observation, its luck test allowing for the days the holds share. With 8 tests in all, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the history on its side.

The averages (50 and 200 days) and the holds were set before any number here was read. Moves before trading costs and funding.

§ 05 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026the top coins against the market over 90 days: after a golden cross −1.8% · after a death cross −4.4% · Bitcoin's crosses: 11 golden, 11 death

§ 06 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026