Study · re-run every night · updated
Do Fed rate cuts pump Bitcoin? Every Fed decision since 2019, tested
63 Fed decisions since 2019: 11 cuts, 12 hikes, 40 holds; the last, on Sep 16, 2026, a hike; the next on Oct 28. After a cut, Bitcoin bought at that day's close did −1.6% over the next 30 days on average, against +5.2% after the other days; after a hike, −6.2%. No kind of decision is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves agreeing): a dozen cuts is a dozen cases, and the markets price most decisions in before the day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Decisions
63
since 2019
After a cut
−1.6%
Bitcoin, the next 30 days
After a hike
−6.2%
Bitcoin, the next 30 days
Every day
+5.2%
Bitcoin, the next 30 days
§ 01 · Decisions
Every cut and hike
as of · Fed decisions Jan 30, 2019 to Oct 14, 2026 · the effective rate from FRED
"Rate cuts are rocket fuel for Bitcoin", the saying goes: cheaper money flows into riskier things. Here is every decision the Federal Reserve made since 2019 - its scheduled meetings and the two emergency cuts of March 2020 - told apart by the effective federal funds rate around it: a cut when the rate fell 0.15 points or more across the decision, a hike when it rose as much, else a hold. Each decision is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close (the statement comes out at 2 pm New York time, before it), held 7, 30 or 90 days.
The rate now: 3.88% (Oct 13, 2026); the last decision, on Sep 16, 2026, was a hike; the next is due on Oct 28, 2026.
| Decision | Date | Rate after | Bitcoin | Next 7 days | Next 30 days | Next 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hike | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.88% | $76,206 | +10.7% | — | — |
| cut | Dec 10, 2025 | 3.64% | $92,015 | −6.3% | −1.5% | −24.0% |
| cut | Oct 29, 2025 | 3.86% | $110,021 | −5.6% | −17.4% | −18.9% |
| cut | Sep 17, 2025 | 4.08% | $116,448 | −2.7% | −8.6% | −24.5% |
| cut | Dec 18, 2024 | 4.33% | $100,204 | −0.8% | +3.9% | −17.5% |
| cut | Nov 7, 2024 | 4.58% | $75,858 | +15.1% | +31.6% | +27.4% |
| cut | Sep 18, 2024 | 4.83% | $61,760 | +2.3% | +10.8% | +71.8% |
| hike | Jul 26, 2023 | 5.33% | $29,352 | −0.6% | −11.2% | +15.6% |
| hike | May 3, 2023 | 5.08% | $29,026 | −4.9% | −6.1% | +2.3% |
| hike | Mar 22, 2023 | 4.83% | $27,251 | +4.0% | +0.0% | +3.9% |
| hike | Feb 1, 2023 | 4.58% | $23,733 | −3.2% | −5.8% | +20.8% |
| hike | Dec 14, 2022 | 4.33% | $17,803 | −5.5% | +11.9% | +38.6% |
| hike | Nov 2, 2022 | 3.83% | $20,152 | −21.0% | −15.2% | +14.8% |
| hike | Sep 21, 2022 | 3.08% | $18,461 | +5.2% | +3.8% | −8.5% |
| hike | Jul 27, 2022 | 2.32% | $22,952 | −0.6% | −11.8% | −12.5% |
| hike | Jun 15, 2022 | 1.58% | $22,584 | −11.5% | −7.8% | −10.7% |
| hike | May 4, 2022 | 0.83% | $39,690 | −26.7% | −25.2% | −42.1% |
| hike | Mar 16, 2022 | 0.33% | $41,114 | +4.3% | −1.4% | −46.2% |
| cut | Mar 15, 2020 | 0.25% | $5,361 | +8.5% | +28.1% | +76.7% |
| cut | Mar 3, 2020 | 1.09% | $8,760 | −9.9% | −22.4% | +16.4% |
| cut | Oct 30, 2019 | 1.57% | $9,155 | +2.0% | −15.5% | +2.4% |
| cut | Sep 18, 2019 | 1.90% | $10,157 | −17.0% | −21.8% | −34.8% |
| cut | Jul 31, 2019 | 2.14% | $10,081 | +18.8% | −4.9% | −6.7% |
| every day | since Jan 30, 2019 | — | — | +1.2% | +5.2% | +17.5% |
The 40 holds are left out of the list; they are in the test below.
§ 02 · After them
What came after them
as of · Bitcoin, from the decision day's close
| Bitcoin after | Next 7 days | Next 30 days | Next 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| a cut | +0.4% vs +1.2% 11 decisions · t −0.3 |
−1.6% vs +5.2% 11 decisions · t −1.1 |
+6.2% vs +17.6% 11 decisions · t −0.6 |
| a hold | +1.7% vs +1.1% 40 decisions · t 0.4 |
+8.3% vs +5.1% 40 decisions · t 1.3 |
+24.5% vs +17.4% 39 decisions · t 1.2 |
| a hike | −4.1% vs +1.2% 12 decisions · t −1.9 |
−6.2% vs +5.2% 11 decisions · t −1.9 |
−2.2% vs +17.6% 11 decisions · t −1.1 |
Each kind of decision against all of Bitcoin's other days since the first one, over the same hold, the luck test under it (✓ past the bar of 3.0, both halves of the days agreeing). A dozen cuts is a dozen cases, and the markets price most decisions in before the day: the test says how much a few cases can carry.
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
The decision is told from the effective rate itself: the middle of its 3 readings before the decision day against the middle of the 3 after it (the new range applies from the next day; the middle keeps the rate's end-of-month jumps out). The buy is at the decision day's close, after the statement. Bitcoin's days around a decision share most of their holds, so each calendar day weighs in by how many holds cover it, and each kind counts as the holds that share no day. With 9 tests (three kinds, three holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the history on its side.
The rule (0.15 points) and the holds were set before any number here was read. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 04 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- Bitcoin over the next 30 days after a cut, against the other days: −7% · 11 cuts, 12 hikes, 40 holds
§ 05 · More
More research
as of