Lab notes · week 41 of 2026 · this week, rewritten every night
Lab notes: the week of Oct 5 – 11, 2026
The lab has run 112,426 tests over 1 night so far this week, the latest on Oct 6. 113,495 of them were ideas it had never tested before. 236 findings held after the latest night: proven coin drivers and series, surviving trading rules and kinds of event that move the odds. 221 were proven for the first time (the ledger's first week: every finding was new to it). Before fees. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Tests run
112,426
over 1 night
New ideas
113,495
tested for the first time
Holding
236
after the latest night
First proven
221
this week
Stopped holding
0
proven before, not now
§ 01 · Night by night1 night
Night by night
as of · the lab's ledger, kept by each stage itself
tests run that night, the latest litblue under a day: findings holding after it· no run that night
| Night | Coin drivers | Series | Trading rules | Odds movers | Scoreboard | All tests | New ideas | Stopped holding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103,205 221 held | 5,857 1 held | 3,144 8 survived | 115 6 held | 105 13 held | 112,426 | 113,495 | 0 |
So far, the ledger held 112,426 tests over 1 night since Oct 6, 2026, 113,495 different ideas among them.
Source: the lab's ledger, every idea each stage tested, night by night · stored
§ 02 · First proven221 new
First proven this week
as of · coin drivers and whole-market findings
221 findings passed the bar for the first time this week: the ledger's first week, so every finding it holds is new to it. The strongest 12:
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PROVEN
XRP
When Ether fell 4% or more in a day, XRP ended higher the next day more often than on any day
344 cases · earned out of sample: right 54% of 6,532 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
ETC
When Ether fell 4% or more in a day, ETC ended higher the next day more often than on any day
336 cases · earned out of sample: right 54% of 6,532 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
BTT
When Bitcoin fell 3% or more in a day, BTT ended higher the next day more often than on any day
145 cases · earned out of sample: right 52% of 7,693 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
HBAR
When Bitcoin fell 3% or more in a day, HBAR ended higher the next day more often than on any day
265 cases · earned out of sample: right 52% of 7,693 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN XRP
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, XRP ended higher the next day more often than on any day
267 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 982 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
XMR
When Bitcoin rose 3% or more in a day, XMR ended lower the next day more often than on any day
261 cases · earned out of sample: right 58% of 113 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
IOTA
When Bitcoin fell 3% or more in a day, IOTA ended higher the next day more often than on any day
331 cases · earned out of sample: right 52% of 7,693 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
XLM
When Ether fell 4% or more in a day, XLM ended higher the next day more often than on any day
338 cases · earned out of sample: right 54% of 6,532 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
MATIC
When Bitcoin fell 3% or more in a day, MATIC ended higher the next day more often than on any day
240 cases · earned out of sample: right 52% of 7,693 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN HBAR
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, HBAR ended higher the next day more often than on any day
206 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 982 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN ETC
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, ETC ended higher the next day more often than on any day
254 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 982 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
ADA
When Ether fell 4% or more in a day, ADA ended higher the next day more often than on any day
345 cases · earned out of sample: right 54% of 6,532 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
§ 03 · Stopped holding0 stopped
Stopped holding
as of · proven when the week began, not past the bar now
Every finding proven when the week began still passed the bar.
§ 04 · Fired this week4 fired
Proven drivers that fired
as of · the event happened this week, so its window opened
4 times this week, the event behind a proven driver happened. What followed is counted in that driver's own record.
-
PROVEN
OGN
When it traded five times its usual volume, OGN ended lower a week later more often than on any day
40 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
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PROVEN
NMR
When it rose three times its usual daily move, NMR ended lower a week later more often than on any day
28 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
- PROVEN UOS When it rose three times its usual daily move, UOS ended lower a week later more often than on any day 16 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
RAD
When it rose three times its usual daily move, RAD ended lower a week later more often than on any day
19 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
§ 05 · The trading rules
The trading rules
as of · the nightly strategy search and its book
On its latest night of the week (Oct 6, 2026), the strategy search tested 3,144 versions of its trading rules; 8 passed both cuts.
8 rules in the book still pass; 8 entered it this week. Every rule that ever passed stays in the book with its paper record.
What the search keeps, and the closest misses it threw away →
§ 06 · How to read them
How to read these notes
as of · the bars each lab holds a finding to
A test is one idea checked against its history on one night: a coin after one kind of event over one horizon, a collected series against Bitcoin, Ether, the altcoins or its own coin, a whole trading rule, a kind of event moving the odds or against ordinary days.
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but thousands tested at once need far more, which is what the cuts below are for.
A coin driver or a series finding is proven when it passes a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, rests on 12 cases or more and holds in both halves of its history. Likely ones pass a looser bar, at about the rate pure chance would give: leads to watch, not facts. A trading rule must pass a 5% false-discovery cut over every test at once on the older 60% of the history, then a luck test of 1.645 or more on the same side on the newer 40% it was not chosen on, every case counted.
This week is still running: its numbers are rewritten every night and stored for the last time the first night after Oct 11, 2026. Every move here is before fees.
§ 07 · More
More research
as of