Lab notes · week 45 of 2026 · this week, rewritten every night
Lab notes: the week of Nov 2 – 8, 2026
The lab has run 163,794 tests over 1 night so far this week, the latest on Nov 2. 2,563 of them were ideas it had never tested before. 241 findings held after the latest night: proven coin drivers and series, surviving trading rules and kinds of event that move the odds. 1 was proven for the first time. 3 that had been proven stopped holding. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Tests run
163,794
over 1 night
New ideas
2,563
tested for the first time
Holding
241
after the latest night
First proven
1
this week
Stopped holding
3
proven before, not now
§ 01 · Night by night1 night
Night by night
as of · the lab's ledger, kept by each stage itself
tests run that night, the latest litblue under a day: findings holding after it· no run that night
| Night | Coin drivers | Series | Trading rules | Odds movers | Scoreboard | All tests | New ideas | Stopped holding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 153,825 219 held | 6,041 1 held | 3,662 13 survived | 146 8 held | 120 13 held | 163,794 | 2,563 | 7 |
So far, the ledger held 4,189,795 tests over 28 nights since Oct 6, 2026, 166,248 different ideas among them.
Source: the lab's ledger, every idea each stage tested, night by night · stored
§ 02 · First proven1 new
First proven this week
as of · coin drivers and whole-market findings
1 finding passed the bar for the first time this week: proven at a night's end and not proven when the week began.
-
PROVEN
AB
When Bitcoin fell 3% or more in a day, AB ended lower the next day more often than on any day
30 cases · no clear edge out of sample · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
§ 03 · Stopped holding3 stopped
Stopped holding
as of · proven when the week began, not past the bar now
3 findings that had been proven no longer passed the bar after the latest night. A finding that stops holding stays in the record; it no longer counts toward a coin's odds.
-
STOPPED
MDT
MDT, the day after it rose 5% or more while Bitcoin fell 2% or more proven when the week began, not past the bar now · what moves MDT
-
STOPPED
NEAR
NEAR, a week after it rose three times its usual daily move proven when the week began, not past the bar now · what moves NEAR
-
STOPPED
SHIB
SHIB, the day after Ether fell 4% or more in a day proven when the week began, not past the bar now · what moves SHIB
§ 04 · Fired this week0 fired
Proven drivers that fired
as of · the event happened this week, so its window opened
No proven driver fired this week.
§ 05 · The trading rules
The trading rules
as of · the nightly strategy search and its book
On its latest night of the week (Nov 2, 2026), the strategy search tested 3,662 versions of its trading rules; 13 passed both cuts.
13 rules in the book still pass; 1 entered it this week and 1 faded. Every rule that ever passed stays in the book with its paper record.
What the search keeps, and the closest misses it threw away →
§ 06 · How to read them
How to read these notes
as of · the bars each lab holds a finding to
A test is one idea checked against its history on one night: a coin after one kind of event over one horizon, a collected series against Bitcoin, Ether, the altcoins or its own coin, a whole trading rule, a kind of event moving the odds or against ordinary days.
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but thousands tested at once need far more, which is what the cuts below are for.
A coin driver or a series finding is proven when it passes a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, rests on 12 cases or more and holds in both halves of its history. Likely ones pass a looser bar, at about the rate pure chance would give: leads to watch, not facts. A trading rule must pass a 5% false-discovery cut over every test at once on the older 60% of the history, then a luck test of 1.645 or more on the same side on the newer 40% it was not chosen on, every case counted.
This week is still running: its numbers are rewritten every night and stored for the last time the first night after Nov 8, 2026.
§ 07 · More
More research
as of
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