Lab notes · week 44 of 2026 · this week, rewritten every night
Lab notes: the week of Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026
The lab has run 154,342 tests over 1 night so far this week, the latest on Oct 26. 605 of them were ideas it had never tested before. 223 findings held after the latest night: proven coin drivers and series, surviving trading rules and kinds of event that move the odds. 0 were proven for the first time. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Tests run
154,342
over 1 night
New ideas
605
tested for the first time
Holding
223
after the latest night
First proven
0
this week
Stopped holding
0
proven before, not now
§ 01 · Night by night1 night
Night by night
as of · the lab's ledger, kept by each stage itself
tests run that night, the latest litblue under a day: findings holding after it· no run that night
| Night | Coin drivers | Series | Trading rules | Odds movers | Scoreboard | All tests | New ideas | Stopped holding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144,432 207 held | 6,017 1 held | 3,628 11 survived | 145 4 held | 120 16 held | 154,342 | 605 | 2 |
So far, the ledger held 3,079,033 tests over 21 nights since Oct 6, 2026, 156,609 different ideas among them.
Source: the lab's ledger, every idea each stage tested, night by night · stored
§ 02 · First proven0 new
First proven this week
as of · coin drivers and whole-market findings
No finding passed the bar for the first time this week.
§ 03 · Stopped holding0 stopped
Stopped holding
as of · proven when the week began, not past the bar now
Every finding proven when the week began still passed the bar.
§ 04 · Fired this week0 fired
Proven drivers that fired
as of · the event happened this week, so its window opened
No proven driver fired this week.
§ 05 · The trading rules
The trading rules
as of · the nightly strategy search and its book
On its latest night of the week (Oct 26, 2026), the strategy search tested 3,628 versions of its trading rules; 11 passed both cuts.
11 rules in the book still pass; 1 entered it this week and 2 faded. Every rule that ever passed stays in the book with its paper record.
What the search keeps, and the closest misses it threw away →
§ 06 · How to read them
How to read these notes
as of · the bars each lab holds a finding to
A test is one idea checked against its history on one night: a coin after one kind of event over one horizon, a collected series against Bitcoin, Ether, the altcoins or its own coin, a whole trading rule, a kind of event moving the odds or against ordinary days.
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but thousands tested at once need far more, which is what the cuts below are for.
A coin driver or a series finding is proven when it passes a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, rests on 12 cases or more and holds in both halves of its history. Likely ones pass a looser bar, at about the rate pure chance would give: leads to watch, not facts. A trading rule must pass a 5% false-discovery cut over every test at once on the older 60% of the history, then a luck test of 1.645 or more on the same side on the newer 40% it was not chosen on, every case counted.
This week is still running: its numbers are rewritten every night and stored for the last time the first night after Nov 1, 2026.
§ 07 · More
More research
as of