What moves ETC · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, ETC ended higher the next day more often than on any day
Found in 254 cases in ETC's history, the latest Sep 23, 2026. Calls like it, made only from what was known before each one, were right 56% of 982 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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Out of sample
56%
right, of 982 calls like it since 2020
That side on any day
49%
how often ETC ended higher anyway
Cases
254
in its history, the latest Sep 23, 2026
How it is proven
ETC is tested on its own history every night: each cause against ETC's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, ETC ending higher more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Proven on the whole history is not the same as right the next time. So the discovery is also re-run as it stood at the start of each calendar quarter, on what came before it only, and the quarter after it is called with what it found; a kind of finding earns a call on the site only when counting every day once, its side was right more often than that same side won on any day of the coin's quarter, in both halves of the quarters walked, at a Newey-West t of 1.645 or more, on 100 or more scored calls over 60 or more separate days.
Source: ETC's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full