Daily research · One coin, one cause · written
What does CHZ do the day after Ether falls 4% or more?
Short answer
273 cases since 2019: in the middle one, CHZ moved +1.2% the day after Ether falls 4% or more. 62% of the cases ended higher. The best 1 in 10 reached +9.5% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −7.3% or less. Out of sample, calls like it earned their side.
Typical move
+1.2%
the next day, the middle case
How often
62%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+9.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−7.3%
or worse
Cases
273
2019-2026, on 273 days
Higher 62% of the time against 50% on ordinary days (266 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern273 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day Ether closed 4% or more below the day before, and the move that counts is CHZ's.
Each of the 273 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 273 measured cases on 273 separate days, from Sep 23, 2019 to Oct 7, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 28, 2026.
It is a proven driver of CHZ in the lab: past a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, on 12 cases or more, with both halves of the history on the same side.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Ether is the collateral behind much of DeFi lending, so a sharp drop can set off liquidations well beyond Ether itself. One idea traders test is that the market overshoots on such days and partly recovers after.
That is the reasoning behind watching Ether's 4% drops; whether it held over our 273 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 273 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against CHZ's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 266 of the 273 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 273 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results127 up · 72 down
Results
as of · every past case, Sep 23, 2019 to Oct 7, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.2% and the average day at +1.6%; 127 cases ended up, 72 down and 74 sideways (within ±1.9%).
ended up (127)ended down (72)sideways, within ±1.9% (74)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 273 | +1.2% | +0.06% | 62% | 50% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 152 | +1.2% | −0.21% | 53% | 50% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 60 | −1.1% | −0.77% | 48% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +1.2% over 152 cases; 30 days, typical −1.1% over 60 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from +0.82% in 2025 to +3.9% in 2020; 8 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 9 | +1.1% | 56% | 44% |
| 2020 | 40 | +3.9% | 72% | 28% |
| 2021 | 67 | +1.0% | 63% | 37% |
| 2022 | 50 | +0.86% | 54% | 46% |
| 2023 | 18 | +1.1% | 67% | 28% |
| 2024 | 32 | +1.1% | 62% | 38% |
| 2025 | 37 | +0.82% | 51% | 49% |
| 2026 | 20 | +1.7% | 70% | 30% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHZ | Ether −4.6% that day | −5.5% | −10.2% | open | |
| CHZ | Ether −4.7% that day | +3.4% | +25.8% | +3.0% | |
| CHZ | Ether −10.6% that day | +1.5% | +5.0% | −25.1% | |
| CHZ | Ether −7.3% that day | +1.9% | −11.9% | −45.3% | |
| CHZ | Ether −4.1% that day | +4.1% | +13.4% | +24.5% | |
| CHZ | Ether −5.0% that day | +1.0% | +10.3% | +40.8% | |
| CHZ | Ether −4.9% that day | −1.1% | −0.99% | +14.0% | |
| CHZ | Ether −4.5% that day | −5.2% | +4.5% | +6.7% | |
| CHZ | Ether −4.8% that day | +2.6% | +7.7% | +18.8% | |
| CHZ | Ether −5.2% that day | −1.7% | +1.8% | +6.2% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleearned out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Calls made from Ether's 4% drops earned their side out of sample: right 54% of 5,626 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day (Oct 11, 2019 – Oct 7, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 273 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data CHZ ended higher more often than on ordinary days (62% against 50% over 266 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical +1.2% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +9.5% and one in 10 beyond −7.3%.
Out of sample, calls like it earned their side: right 54% of 5,626 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 273 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Ether's 4% drops did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did CHZ end higher the day after Ether falls 4% or more?
- In 62% of 273 cases from Sep 23, 2019 to Oct 7, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 62% against 50% on CHZ's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.2% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +9.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −7.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 273 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it earned their side (right 54% of 5,626 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day).
- The +1.2% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 7, 2026: Ether −4.6% that day.
- A day later the move was −5.5%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +3.9% in 2020 (40 cases) and +0.82% in 2025 (37 cases).