Daily research · One coin, one cause · written
What does XRP do the day after Ether falls 4% or more?
Short answer
344 cases since 2018: in the middle one, XRP moved +1.00% the day after Ether falls 4% or more. 63% of the cases ended higher. One case in 10 did better than +6.3%, one in 10 worse than −6.4%. Out of sample, calls like it earned their side.
Typical move
+1.00%
the next day, the middle case
How often
63%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+6.3%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.4%
or worse
Cases
344
2018-2026, on 344 days
Higher 62% of the time against 50% on ordinary days (327 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern344 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day Ether closed 4% or more below the day before, and the move that counts is XRP's.
Each of the 344 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 344 measured cases on 344 separate days, from May 7, 2018 to Sep 15, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
It is a proven driver of XRP in the lab: past a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, on 12 cases or more, with both halves of the history on the same side.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Ether is the collateral behind much of DeFi lending, so a sharp drop can set off liquidations well beyond Ether itself. One idea traders test is that the market overshoots on such days and partly recovers after.
That is the reasoning behind watching Ether's 4% drops; whether it held over our 344 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 344 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against XRP's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 327 of the 344 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 344 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results155 up · 90 down
Results
as of · every past case, May 7, 2018 to Sep 15, 2026
Of the 344 cases, 155 ended up, 90 down and 99 sideways (within ±1.5%) a day later; the middle case +1.00%, the average day +0.95%.
ended up (155)ended down (90)sideways, within ±1.5% (99)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 344 | +1.00% | 0.00% | 62% | 50% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 188 | +0.46% | −0.34% | 53% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 73 | −4.8% | −1.7% | 44% | 44% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +0.46% over 188 cases; 30 days, typical −4.8% over 73 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.40% in 2026 to +1.7% in 2022; 8 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 46 | +1.5% | 67% | 33% |
| 2019 | 35 | +1.3% | 71% | 29% |
| 2020 | 40 | +1.7% | 75% | 25% |
| 2021 | 67 | +0.83% | 58% | 42% |
| 2022 | 50 | +1.7% | 66% | 34% |
| 2023 | 18 | +0.50% | 61% | 33% |
| 2024 | 32 | +0.71% | 66% | 34% |
| 2025 | 37 | +0.49% | 54% | 46% |
| 2026 | 19 | −0.40% | 42% | 58% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Ether −4.7% that day | +1.3% | +22.6% | open | |
| XRP | Ether −10.6% that day | −0.40% | +3.2% | +5.4% | |
| XRP | Ether −7.3% that day | −0.87% | −6.1% | −10.2% | |
| XRP | Ether −4.1% that day | +3.8% | +5.2% | +8.5% | |
| XRP | Ether −5.0% that day | −2.6% | −3.0% | +4.6% | |
| XRP | Ether −4.9% that day | −1.2% | −3.4% | +0.75% | |
| XRP | Ether −4.5% that day | −0.48% | +2.6% | −2.7% | |
| XRP | Ether −4.8% that day | +1.5% | +0.52% | −2.1% | |
| XRP | Ether −5.2% that day | −0.27% | +2.8% | +4.6% | |
| XRP | Ether −5.8% that day | +0.83% | −5.6% | +2.9% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleearned out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Calls made from Ether's 4% drops earned their side out of sample: right 54% of 6,280 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day (Oct 11, 2019 – Sep 15, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 344 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data XRP ended higher more often than on ordinary days (62% against 50% over 327 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +1.00% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−6.4% to +6.3%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it earned their side: right 54% of 6,280 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 344 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Ether's 4% drops did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did XRP usually end higher the day after Ether falls 4% or more?
- In 63% of 344 cases from May 7, 2018 to Sep 15, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 62% against 50% on XRP's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.00% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.4% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 344 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it earned their side (right 54% of 6,280 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day).
- The +1.00% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Sep 15, 2026: Ether −4.7% that day.
- A day later the move was +1.3%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +1.7% in 2022 (50 cases) and −0.40% in 2026 (19 cases).