Daily research · One coin, one cause · written
What does XLM do the day after Ether falls 4% or more?
Short answer
339 cases since 2018: in the middle one, XLM moved +1.1% the day after Ether falls 4% or more. It ended higher 61% of the time. The best tenth gained +6.6% or better and the worst tenth −5.5% or worse. Out of sample, calls like it earned their side.
Typical move
+1.1%
the next day, the middle case
How often
61%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+6.6%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−5.5%
or worse
Cases
339
2018-2026, on 339 days
Higher 60% of the time against 50% on ordinary days (321 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern339 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day Ether closed 4% or more below the day before, and the move that counts is XLM's.
Each of the 339 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 339 measured cases on 339 separate days, from Jun 4, 2018 to Oct 7, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 8, 2026.
It is a proven driver of XLM in the lab: past a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, on 12 cases or more, with both halves of the history on the same side.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Ether is the collateral behind much of DeFi lending, so a sharp drop can set off liquidations well beyond Ether itself. One idea traders test is that the market overshoots on such days and partly recovers after.
That is the reasoning behind watching Ether's 4% drops; whether it held over our 339 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 339 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against XLM's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 321 of the 339 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 339 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results159 up · 95 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jun 4, 2018 to Oct 7, 2026
Of the 339 cases, 159 ended up, 95 down and 85 sideways (within ±1.4%) a day later; the middle case +1.1%, the average day +1.0%.
ended up (159)ended down (95)sideways, within ±1.4% (85)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 339 | +1.1% | 0.00% | 60% | 50% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 185 | −1.0% | −1.2% | 49% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 72 | −1.9% | −4.0% | 42% | 44% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −1.0% over 185 cases; 30 days, typical −1.9% over 72 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.62% in 2026 to +2.7% in 2020; 8 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 40 | +0.98% | 55% | 45% |
| 2019 | 35 | +1.4% | 66% | 34% |
| 2020 | 40 | +2.7% | 80% | 20% |
| 2021 | 67 | +0.99% | 63% | 37% |
| 2022 | 50 | +1.6% | 62% | 38% |
| 2023 | 18 | +1.0% | 56% | 33% |
| 2024 | 32 | +0.39% | 56% | 44% |
| 2025 | 37 | +0.28% | 51% | 49% |
| 2026 | 20 | −0.62% | 45% | 55% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLM | Ether −4.6% that day | −1.00% | open | open | |
| XLM | Ether −4.7% that day | +4.4% | +22.8% | open | |
| XLM | Ether −10.6% that day | +4.3% | −7.5% | +0.05% | |
| XLM | Ether −7.3% that day | −6.2% | −13.6% | −10.5% | |
| XLM | Ether −4.1% that day | +4.1% | +10.9% | +8.1% | |
| XLM | Ether −5.0% that day | −3.7% | −6.2% | −2.3% | |
| XLM | Ether −4.9% that day | −2.8% | +4.2% | +2.4% | |
| XLM | Ether −4.5% that day | −1.2% | +7.8% | +6.9% | |
| XLM | Ether −4.8% that day | +0.13% | −4.2% | +3.6% | |
| XLM | Ether −5.2% that day | −1.2% | +2.8% | +17.2% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleearned out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Calls made from Ether's 4% drops earned their side out of sample: right 54% of 5,680 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day (Jan 19, 2020 – Oct 7, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 339 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data XLM ended higher more often than on ordinary days (60% against 50% over 321 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +1.1% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−5.5% to +6.6%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it earned their side: right 54% of 5,680 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 339 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Ether's 4% drops did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did XLM end higher the day after Ether falls 4% or more?
- In 61% of 339 cases from Jun 4, 2018 to Oct 7, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 60% against 50% on XLM's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.1% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −5.5% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 339 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it earned their side (right 54% of 5,680 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day).
- The +1.1% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 7, 2026: Ether −4.6% that day.
- A day later the move was −1.00%.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +2.7% in 2020 (40 cases) and −0.62% in 2026 (20 cases).