Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What do altcoins do the day after a US GDP first estimate?
Short answer
Across 30 cases since 2019, the typical move for the altcoins the day after a US GDP first estimate was +1.7%. 70% of the cases ended higher. One case in 10 did better than +6.2%, one in 10 worse than −4.1%. Over 29 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
+1.7%
the next day, the middle case
How often
70%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+6.2%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−4.1%
or worse
Cases
30
2019-2026, on 30 days
Higher 69% of the time against 55% on ordinary days (29 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern30 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day the first estimate of US GDP comes out, from FRED's release calendar, and the move that counts is the altcoins' average (the 100 most traded altcoins, at least 10 of them with both closes).
Each of the 30 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 30 measured cases on 30 separate days, from Apr 26, 2019 to Jul 30, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 30, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
The first estimate of US growth can change the market's view of the economy, and with it the appetite for risk. The question is whether crypto moves with other risky assets on such data.
That is the reasoning behind watching GDP estimates; whether it held over our 30 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 30 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against the altcoins' own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 29 of the 30 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 30 days counts once.
§ 04 · Results17 up · 8 down
Results
as of · every past case, Apr 26, 2019 to Jul 30, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.7% and the average day at +2.5%; 17 cases ended up, 8 down and 5 sideways (within ±1.4%).
ended up (17)ended down (8)sideways, within ±1.4% (5)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 30 | +1.7% | +0.36% | 69% | 55% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 30 | +2.2% | +0.75% | 59% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 30 | +3.0% | −3.8% | 59% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +2.2% over 30 cases; 30 days, typical +3.0% over 30 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −1.8% in 2019 to +11.0% in 2021; 6 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3 | −1.8% | 33% | 67% |
| 2020 | 4 | +2.2% | 75% | 25% |
| 2021 | 4 | +11.0% | 100% | 0% |
| 2022 | 4 | −0.25% | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 | 4 | +1.6% | 75% | 25% |
| 2024 | 4 | +0.34% | 50% | 50% |
| 2025 | 4 | +1.6% | 75% | 25% |
| 2026 | 3 | +1.7% | 100% | 0% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP first estimate | open | open | open | |
| US GDP first estimate | +3.1% | +5.5% | +24.6% | |
| US GDP first estimate | +1.7% | +14.9% | +24.6% | |
| US GDP first estimate | +0.48% | −8.3% | −27.0% | |
| US GDP first estimate | +0.45% | +2.1% | +5.8% | |
| US GDP first estimate | −7.2% | −7.7% | −5.1% | |
| US GDP first estimate | +2.8% | −6.5% | +3.0% | |
| US GDP first estimate | +4.0% | −27.1% | −30.0% | |
| US GDP first estimate | −4.1% | +0.60% | +2.9% | |
| US GDP first estimate | +2.3% | −6.2% | −1.8% |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 30, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from GDP estimates at 1 day, so the 30 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 69% of 29 days ended higher against 55% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (51% to 83%).
A typical +1.7% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +6.2% and one in 10 beyond −4.1%.
Calls made from GDP estimates have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 30 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
With 30 cases, one case moves the share that ended higher by 3.3 points.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 30 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what GDP estimates did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did the altcoins end higher the day after a US GDP first estimate?
- In 70% of 30 cases from Apr 26, 2019 to Jul 30, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 69% against 55% on the altcoins' own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.7% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.2% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −4.1% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 30 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The +1.7% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 29, 2026: US GDP first estimate.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 30, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +11.0% in 2021 (4 cases) and −1.8% in 2019 (3 cases).