Daily research · Big market days · written
What do altcoins do the day after they fall 4% or more?
Short answer
361 cases since 2019: in the middle one, the altcoins moved +1.1% the day after they fall 4% or more. Higher was the outcome 61% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +7.0% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −6.4% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+1.1%
the next day, the middle case
How often
61%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+7.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.4%
or worse
Cases
361
2019-2026, on 361 days
Higher 61% of the time against 55% on ordinary days (355 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern361 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the 100 most traded altcoins fell 4% or more on average, and the move that counts is the altcoins' average (the 100 most traded altcoins, at least 10 of them with both closes).
Each of the 361 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 361 measured cases on 361 separate days, from Apr 11, 2019 to Oct 12, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 15, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A drop across the biggest altcoins at once is a market-wide flush: leverage gets cut everywhere on the same day. Traders watch the next days for a relief bounce, or for the slide to continue as nervous holders step out.
That is the reasoning behind watching 4% altcoin drops; whether it held over our 361 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 361 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against the altcoins' own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 355 of the 361 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 361 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results164 up · 102 down
Results
as of · every past case, Apr 11, 2019 to Oct 12, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.1% and the average day at +0.94%; 164 cases ended up, 102 down and 95 sideways (within ±1.6%).
ended up (164)ended down (102)sideways, within ±1.6% (95)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 361 | +1.1% | +0.30% | 61% | 55% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 185 | −0.32% | +0.90% | 48% | 54% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 74 | −0.56% | −2.4% | 49% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −0.32% over 185 cases; 30 days, typical −0.56% over 74 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.10% in 2025 to +2.8% in 2020; 7 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 29 | +1.7% | 72% | 28% |
| 2020 | 45 | +2.8% | 78% | 22% |
| 2021 | 62 | +2.0% | 63% | 37% |
| 2022 | 59 | +0.73% | 63% | 37% |
| 2023 | 32 | +0.60% | 66% | 34% |
| 2024 | 54 | +0.01% | 50% | 50% |
| 2025 | 56 | −0.10% | 48% | 52% |
| 2026 | 24 | +1.2% | 58% | 42% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The altcoins −6.9% that day | +1.1% | open | open | |
| The altcoins −4.6% that day | +3.6% | open | open | |
| The altcoins −4.7% that day | +0.75% | +5.1% | open | |
| The altcoins −6.7% that day | +4.4% | +5.5% | open | |
| The altcoins −4.3% that day | +1.8% | +4.9% | +22.8% | |
| The altcoins −5.5% that day | −0.03% | +1.1% | +23.9% | |
| The altcoins −9.2% that day | −1.2% | +2.3% | +7.5% | |
| The altcoins −7.0% that day | −9.2% | −7.4% | −3.4% | |
| The altcoins −6.7% that day | +1.4% | −14.5% | −12.5% | |
| The altcoins −4.8% that day | +2.9% | −3.3% | −17.2% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from 4% altcoin drops showed no clear edge: right 53% of 3,326 calls since 2019, against 50% for that side on any day (Oct 23, 2019 – Oct 12, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 361 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data the altcoins ended higher more often than on ordinary days (61% against 55% over 355 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical +1.1% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +7.0% and one in 10 beyond −6.4%.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 53% of 3,326 calls since 2019, against 50% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 361 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 4% altcoin drops did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did the altcoins usually end higher the day after they fall 4% or more?
- In 61% of 361 cases from Apr 11, 2019 to Oct 12, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 61% against 55% on the altcoins' own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.1% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.4% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 361 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 53% of 3,326 calls since 2019, against 50% for that side on any day).
- The +1.1% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 12, 2026: The altcoins −6.9% that day.
- A day later the move was +1.1%.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +2.8% in 2020 (45 cases) and −0.10% in 2025 (56 cases).