Daily research · One coin, one cause · written
What does HBAR do the day after the altcoins fall 4% or more?
Short answer
Across 339 cases since 2019, the typical move for HBAR the day after the altcoins fall 4% or more was +0.89%. It ended higher 60% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +8.5% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −5.8% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+0.89%
the next day, the middle case
How often
60%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+8.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−5.8%
or worse
Cases
339
2019-2026, on 339 days
Higher 60% of the time against 49% on ordinary days (331 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern339 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the 100 most traded altcoins fell 4% or more on average, and the move that counts is HBAR's.
Each of the 339 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 339 measured cases on 339 separate days, from Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 13, 2026.
It is a proven driver of HBAR in the lab: past a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, on 12 cases or more, with both halves of the history on the same side.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A drop across the biggest altcoins at once is a market-wide flush: leverage gets cut everywhere on the same day. Traders watch the next days for a relief bounce, or for the slide to continue as nervous holders step out.
That is the reasoning behind watching 4% altcoin drops; whether it held over our 339 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 339 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against HBAR's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 331 of the 339 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 339 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results150 up · 105 down
Results
as of · every past case, Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +0.89% and the average day at +1.3%; 150 cases ended up, 105 down and 84 sideways (within ±1.6%).
ended up (150)ended down (105)sideways, within ±1.6% (84)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 339 | +0.89% | −0.10% | 60% | 49% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 173 | −0.64% | −1.2% | 45% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 69 | −1.6% | −5.1% | 47% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −0.64% over 173 cases; 30 days, typical −1.6% over 69 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.76% in 2019 to +3.2% in 2021; 5 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 8 | −0.76% | 50% | 50% |
| 2020 | 45 | +1.1% | 76% | 24% |
| 2021 | 62 | +3.2% | 69% | 31% |
| 2022 | 59 | +1.2% | 59% | 39% |
| 2023 | 32 | +1.2% | 69% | 31% |
| 2024 | 54 | −0.42% | 46% | 54% |
| 2025 | 56 | +0.03% | 50% | 50% |
| 2026 | 23 | −0.45% | 48% | 52% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBAR | The altcoins −6.9% that day | open | open | open | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −4.6% that day | +2.1% | open | open | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −4.7% that day | −16.1% | −16.7% | open | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −6.7% that day | +2.9% | +15.8% | open | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −4.3% that day | −0.46% | −0.23% | +23.6% | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −5.5% that day | +0.46% | +3.5% | +15.3% | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −9.2% that day | −0.81% | −3.1% | −5.0% | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −7.0% that day | −4.1% | −5.4% | −7.8% | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −6.7% that day | −1.9% | −8.5% | −18.4% | |
| HBAR | The altcoins −4.8% that day | +2.1% | +12.9% | −11.2% |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 13, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from 4% altcoin drops showed no clear edge: right 53% of 3,363 calls since 2019, against 50% for that side on any day (Oct 23, 2019 – Oct 8, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 339 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data HBAR ended higher more often than on ordinary days (60% against 49% over 331 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical +0.89% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +8.5% and one in 10 beyond −5.8%.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 53% of 3,363 calls since 2019, against 50% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 339 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 4% altcoin drops did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did HBAR usually end higher the day after the altcoins fall 4% or more?
- In 60% of 339 cases from Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 60% against 49% on HBAR's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +0.89% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +8.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −5.8% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 339 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 53% of 3,363 calls since 2019, against 50% for that side on any day).
- The +0.89% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 12, 2026: The altcoins −6.9% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 13, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +3.2% in 2021 (62 cases) and −0.76% in 2019 (8 cases).