Daily research · Big market days · written
What do altcoins do the day after Bitcoin falls 3% or more?
Short answer
Across 294 cases since 2019, the typical move for the altcoins the day after Bitcoin falls 3% or more was +1.4%. It ended higher 64% of the time. The best tenth gained +7.3% or better and the worst tenth −6.1% or worse. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+1.4%
the next day, the middle case
How often
64%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+7.3%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.1%
or worse
Cases
294
2019-2026, on 294 days
Higher 64% of the time against 55% on ordinary days (285 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern294 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day Bitcoin closed 3% or more below the day before (UTC daily closes), and the move that counts is the altcoins' average (the 100 most traded altcoins, at least 10 of them with both closes).
Each of the 294 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 294 measured cases on 294 separate days, from Apr 11, 2019 to Oct 22, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 30, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When Bitcoin drops this far in a day, leveraged positions across the market get closed at once, and forced exits tend to overshoot. One reason traders watch the next days is the idea that part of the overshoot snaps back; the other view is that a drop this size can be the start of a longer slide.
That is the reasoning behind watching Bitcoin's 3% drops; whether it held over our 294 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 294 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against the altcoins' own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 285 of the 294 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 294 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results140 up · 76 down
Results
as of · every past case, Apr 11, 2019 to Oct 22, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.4% and the average day at +1.1%; 140 cases ended up, 76 down and 78 sideways (within ±1.5%).
ended up (140)ended down (76)sideways, within ±1.5% (78)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 294 | +1.4% | +0.31% | 64% | 55% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 170 | +2.3% | +1.00% | 58% | 55% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 67 | −1.3% | −1.3% | 47% | 49% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +2.3% over 170 cases; 30 days, typical −1.3% over 67 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −1.1% in 2026 to +2.8% in 2020; 7 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 40 | +1.6% | 68% | 32% |
| 2020 | 35 | +2.8% | 80% | 20% |
| 2021 | 66 | +1.7% | 65% | 35% |
| 2022 | 48 | +1.9% | 69% | 31% |
| 2023 | 22 | +0.69% | 73% | 27% |
| 2024 | 38 | +0.33% | 55% | 45% |
| 2025 | 27 | +0.06% | 52% | 48% |
| 2026 | 18 | −1.1% | 28% | 72% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin −4.1% that day | open | open | open | |
| Bitcoin −3.2% that day | −0.15% | −9.4% | open | |
| Bitcoin −3.3% that day | +1.3% | +28.5% | +14.4% | |
| Bitcoin −4.4% that day | −1.2% | +2.0% | +7.3% | |
| Bitcoin −3.9% that day | −7.0% | −18.1% | −10.1% | |
| Bitcoin −6.5% that day | +1.5% | −14.6% | −12.9% | |
| Bitcoin −3.1% that day | −6.6% | −18.4% | −20.7% | |
| Bitcoin −3.2% that day | +5.8% | +6.7% | +25.9% | |
| Bitcoin −3.5% that day | −1.0% | −0.98% | +12.6% | |
| Bitcoin −3.5% that day | −3.1% | −4.7% | +8.2% |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 30, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from Bitcoin's 3% drops showed no clear edge: right 52% of 6,706 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day (Aug 2, 2020 – Oct 22, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 294 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data the altcoins ended higher more often than on ordinary days (64% against 55% over 285 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +1.4% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−6.1% to +7.3%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 52% of 6,706 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 294 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Bitcoin's 3% drops did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did the altcoins end higher the day after Bitcoin falls 3% or more?
- In 64% of 294 cases from Apr 11, 2019 to Oct 22, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 64% against 55% on the altcoins' own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved +1.4% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.1% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 294 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 52% of 6,706 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day).
- The +1.4% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 29, 2026: Bitcoin −4.1% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 30, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +2.8% in 2020 (35 cases) and −1.1% in 2026 (18 cases).