Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What do altcoins do the day after a PCE inflation release?
Short answer
Across 91 cases since 2019, the typical move for the altcoins the day after a PCE inflation release was +1.5%. It ended higher 68% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +7.7%, one in 10 worse than −6.7%. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
+1.5%
the next day, the middle case
How often
68%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+7.7%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.7%
or worse
Cases
91
2019-2026, on 91 days
Higher 67% of the time against 55% on ordinary days (88 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern91 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day the PCE inflation index comes out, from FRED's release calendar, and the move that counts is the altcoins' average (the 100 most traded altcoins, at least 10 of them with both closes).
Each of the 91 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 91 measured cases on 91 separate days, from Mar 29, 2019 to Sep 30, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 29, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed itself targets, so its release can move rate expectations even after the consumer price index came out earlier in the month.
That is the reasoning behind watching PCE releases; whether it held over our 91 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 91 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against the altcoins' own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 88 of the 91 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 91 days counts once.
§ 04 · Results41 up · 23 down
Results
as of · every past case, Mar 29, 2019 to Sep 30, 2026
Of the 91 cases, 41 ended up, 23 down and 27 sideways (within ±1.7%) a day later; the middle case +1.5%, the average day +0.74%.
ended up (41)ended down (23)sideways, within ±1.7% (27)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 91 | +1.5% | +0.36% | 67% | 55% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 91 | +1.7% | +0.19% | 57% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 90 | −2.1% | −4.7% | 43% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +1.7% over 91 cases; 30 days, typical −2.1% over 90 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −2.9% in 2020 to +7.4% in 2021; 6 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 10 | +2.3% | 100% | 0% |
| 2020 | 12 | −2.9% | 33% | 67% |
| 2021 | 12 | +7.4% | 83% | 17% |
| 2022 | 12 | +0.93% | 58% | 42% |
| 2023 | 12 | +1.9% | 83% | 17% |
| 2024 | 12 | +1.5% | 58% | 42% |
| 2025 | 11 | −1.3% | 45% | 55% |
| 2026 | 10 | +0.86% | 90% | 10% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US PCE inflation release | +0.89% | −0.80% | open | |
| US PCE inflation release | +3.5% | −1.1% | +27.0% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +3.1% | +5.5% | +24.6% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +0.33% | +2.5% | +0.70% | |
| US PCE inflation release | −1.5% | −10.7% | −20.9% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +0.83% | +12.0% | −2.1% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +1.7% | +14.9% | +24.6% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +0.30% | −2.5% | −11.5% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +1.7% | −1.5% | −7.7% | |
| US PCE inflation release | +0.48% | −8.3% | −27.0% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from PCE releases at 1 day, so the 91 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data the altcoins ended higher more often than on ordinary days (67% against 55% over 88 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical +1.5% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +7.7% and one in 10 beyond −6.7%.
Calls made from PCE releases have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 91 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
With 91 cases, one case moves the share that ended higher by 1.1 points.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 91 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what PCE releases did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did the altcoins end higher the day after a PCE inflation release?
- In 68% of 91 cases from Mar 29, 2019 to Sep 30, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 67% against 55% on the altcoins' own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.5% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.7% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.7% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 91 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The +1.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 29, 2026: US PCE inflation release.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +7.4% in 2021 (12 cases) and −2.9% in 2020 (12 cases).