Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What do altcoins do the day after a Bitcoin options expiry?
Short answer
The middle case of 91 since 2019 saw the altcoins move +1.5% the day after a Bitcoin options expiry. Higher was the outcome 65% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +7.5%, one in 10 worse than −8.4%. Over 88 days set against ordinary days it is no clear edge. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
+1.5%
the next day, the middle case
How often
65%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+7.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−8.4%
or worse
Cases
91
2019-2026, on 91 days
Higher 64% of the time against 54% on ordinary days (88 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern91 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day of Deribit's monthly Bitcoin options expiry (the last Friday of the month, 08:00 UTC), and the move that counts is the altcoins' average (the 100 most traded altcoins, at least 10 of them with both closes).
Each of the 91 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 91 measured cases on 91 separate days, from Mar 29, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 9, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Each month a large block of Bitcoin options expires on Deribit. Dealers who hedge those options adjust their positions into the expiry, and a popular idea is that the price gets pinned before it and moves more freely after.
That is the reasoning behind watching options expiries; whether it held over our 91 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 91 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against the altcoins' own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 88 of the 91 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 91 days counts once.
§ 04 · Results41 up · 22 down
Results
as of · every past case, Mar 29, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.5% and the average day at +0.90%; 41 cases ended up, 22 down and 28 sideways (within ±1.8%).
ended up (41)ended down (22)sideways, within ±1.8% (28)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 91 | +1.5% | +0.35% | 64% | 54% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 91 | +2.2% | +0.19% | 58% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 90 | −1.9% | −4.7% | 45% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +2.2% over 91 cases; 30 days, typical −1.9% over 90 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from +0.28% in 2022 to +2.6% in 2021; 8 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 10 | +2.0% | 90% | 10% |
| 2020 | 12 | +1.9% | 67% | 33% |
| 2021 | 12 | +2.6% | 67% | 33% |
| 2022 | 12 | +0.28% | 58% | 42% |
| 2023 | 12 | +1.8% | 75% | 25% |
| 2024 | 12 | +1.5% | 58% | 42% |
| 2025 | 12 | +1.3% | 50% | 50% |
| 2026 | 9 | +0.57% | 56% | 44% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin quarterly options expiry | +3.9% | +1.8% | open | |
| Bitcoin monthly options expiry | −2.6% | −1.0% | +23.2% | |
| Bitcoin monthly options expiry | +1.1% | +4.3% | +17.9% | |
| Bitcoin quarterly options expiry | +0.57% | +9.9% | +4.8% | |
| Bitcoin monthly options expiry | +2.3% | −17.3% | −18.7% | |
| Bitcoin monthly options expiry | +1.00% | −0.21% | −1.5% | |
| Bitcoin quarterly options expiry | −3.9% | −3.7% | +9.2% | |
| Bitcoin monthly options expiry | −0.17% | −3.0% | −12.4% | |
| Bitcoin monthly options expiry | −9.8% | −18.2% | −24.7% | |
| Bitcoin quarterly options expiry | +5.1% | +11.9% | +0.34% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from options expiries at 1 day, so the 91 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 64% of 88 days ended higher against 54% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (53% to 73%).
The typical move of +1.5% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−8.4% to +7.5%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from options expiries have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 91 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
With 91 cases, a handful of unusual ones can move these numbers.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 91 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what options expiries did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did the altcoins end higher the day after a Bitcoin options expiry?
- In 65% of 91 cases from Mar 29, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 64% against 54% on the altcoins' own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.5% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −8.4% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 91 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The +1.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Sep 25, 2026: Bitcoin quarterly options expiry.
- A day later the move was +3.9%.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +2.6% in 2021 (12 cases) and +0.28% in 2022 (12 cases).