Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a volume spike?
Short answer
Across 13,235 cases since 2018, the typical move for a coin the day after a volume spike was −1.4%. It ended lower 62% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +6.8%, one in 10 worse than −8.1%. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−1.4%
the next day, the middle case
How often
62%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+6.8%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−8.1%
or worse
Cases
13,235
2018-2026, on 2,296 days
Higher 38% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (2,236 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern13,235 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the coin traded at least 5 times its median volume of the 30 days before, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 13,235 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 13,235 measured cases on 2,296 separate days, from Jan 16, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Volume many times the usual means something changed: news, a listing, a large holder moving. Traders read heavy volume as conviction behind the move, whichever way it went.
That is the reasoning behind watching volume spikes; whether it held over our 13,235 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 13,235 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 2,236 of the 2,296 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 13,235 cases fall on 2,296 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results3561 up · 6018 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 16, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026
Of the 13,235 cases, 3,561 ended up, 6,018 down and 3,656 sideways (within ±2.1%) a day later; the middle case −1.4%, the average day −0.60%.
ended up (3561)ended down (6018)sideways, within ±2.1% (3656)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 13,235 2,296 days | −1.4% | −0.16% | 38% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 13,045 2,289 days | −2.3% | −1.3% | 39% | 45% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 9,198 2,132 days | −5.8% | −7.0% | 39% | 40% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −2.3% over 13,045 cases; 30 days, typical −5.8% over 9,198 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −2.4% in 2022 to −0.51% in 2019; 9 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.59% over 299 cases; mid caps −0.85% over 630 cases; small caps −1.4% over 3,227 cases; micro caps −1.8% over 9,079 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 29 | −0.60% | 47% | 53% |
| 2019 | 131 | −0.51% | 44% | 55% |
| 2020 | 387 | −1.8% | 39% | 61% |
| 2021 | 924 | −2.1% | 37% | 63% |
| 2022 | 1,528 | −2.4% | 32% | 67% |
| 2023 | 1,939 | −0.99% | 37% | 62% |
| 2024 | 1,915 | −1.3% | 39% | 61% |
| 2025 | 2,841 | −0.70% | 41% | 59% |
| 2026 | 3,541 | −1.4% | 36% | 63% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 299 | −0.59% | 43% | 57% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 630 | −0.85% | 44% | 56% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 3,227 | −1.4% | 40% | 60% |
| under $50M micro caps | 9,079 | −1.8% | 36% | 63% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLUX | FLUX +0.8% that day | −6.0% | open | open | |
| TRB | TRB +11.4% that day | −8.8% | open | open | |
| PORTO | PORTO +0.2% that day | −2.4% | open | open | |
| LAZIO | LAZIO +3.4% that day | −3.8% | open | open | |
| GRVT | GRVT +1.3% that day | −2.4% | open | open | |
| FRAX | FRAX +3.4% that day | −4.3% | open | open | |
| DIA | DIA −3.4% that day | −5.5% | open | open | |
| C98 | C98 +5.5% that day | −8.3% | open | open | |
| ASR | ASR +1.4% that day | −2.3% | open | open | |
| ARPA | ARPA +2.6% that day | −2.2% | open | open |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from volume spikes showed no clear edge: right 64% of 490 calls since 2020, against 51% for that side on any day (Oct 1, 2020 – Oct 6, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 13,235 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (38% against 48% over 2,236 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −1.4% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−8.1% to +6.8%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 64% of 490 calls since 2020, against 51% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 13,235 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what volume spikes did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a volume spike?
- In 62% of 13,235 cases from Jan 16, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 38% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −1.4% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.8% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −8.1% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 13,235 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 64% of 490 calls since 2020, against 51% for that side on any day).
- The −1.4% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 6, 2026: FLUX +0.8% that day.
- A day later the move was −6.0%.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was −0.51% in 2019 (131 cases) and −2.4% in 2022 (1,528 cases).