Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a 90-day breakout?
Short answer
Across 6,571 cases since 2017, the typical move for a coin the day after a 90-day breakout was −0.61%. 57% of the cases ended lower. The best 1 in 10 reached +10.0% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −10.6% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−0.61%
the next day, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+10.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−10.6%
or worse
Cases
6,571
2017-2026, on 1,535 days
Higher 42% of the time against 49% on ordinary days (1,535 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern6,571 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close above every close of the 90 days before it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 6,571 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 6,571 measured cases on 1,535 separate days, from Nov 16, 2017 to Oct 6, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A close above the whole 90-day range is a classic breakout: traders who waited for strength come in, and those holding short may have to close. The question is whether it keeps going or falls back into the range.
That is the reasoning behind watching 90-day breakouts; whether it held over our 6,571 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 6,571 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,535 of the 1,535 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 6,571 cases fall on 1,535 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results2076 up · 2672 down
Results
as of · every past case, Nov 16, 2017 to Oct 6, 2026
Of the 6,571 cases, 2,076 ended up, 2,672 down and 1,823 sideways (within ±2.2%) a day later; the middle case −0.61%, the average day +0.09%.
ended up (2076)ended down (2672)sideways, within ±2.2% (1823)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 6,571 1,535 days | −0.61% | −0.04% | 42% | 49% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 6,486 1,529 days | −1.1% | −0.36% | 44% | 49% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 4,425 1,333 days | −4.0% | −3.4% | 41% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −1.1% over 6,486 cases; 30 days, typical −4.0% over 4,425 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −1.9% in 2022 to +12.4% in 2017; 5 of 10 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.07% over 521 cases; mid caps +0.51% over 653 cases; small caps −0.42% over 1,834 cases; micro caps −1.2% over 3,563 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4 | +12.4% | 75% | 25% |
| 2018 | 5 | +1.7% | 60% | 40% |
| 2019 | 84 | +0.07% | 48% | 52% |
| 2020 | 371 | +0.08% | 46% | 54% |
| 2021 | 874 | +0.28% | 45% | 55% |
| 2022 | 197 | −1.9% | 34% | 66% |
| 2023 | 1,199 | −0.63% | 39% | 61% |
| 2024 | 1,243 | −0.05% | 43% | 56% |
| 2025 | 861 | −1.0% | 40% | 60% |
| 2026 | 1,733 | −0.77% | 44% | 55% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 521 | +0.07% | 49% | 50% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 653 | +0.51% | 51% | 48% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 1,834 | −0.42% | 44% | 56% |
| under $50M micro caps | 3,563 | −1.2% | 40% | 59% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMA | UMA +0.5% that day | −4.2% | open | open | |
| SPYON | SPYON +0.6% that day | −0.06% | open | open | |
| PIPE | PIPE +6.4% that day | −0.91% | open | open | |
| NMR | NMR +32.8% that day | +2.6% | open | open | |
| LQTY | LQTY +4.0% that day | −5.2% | open | open | |
| LPT | LPT +2.2% that day | −6.3% | open | open | |
| LIGHT | LIGHT +4.0% that day | −5.4% | open | open | |
| IOTX | IOTX +6.3% that day | −5.3% | open | open | |
| IMX | IMX +1.7% that day | −7.3% | open | open | |
| IAG | IAG +3.4% that day | −5.0% | open | open |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from 90-day breakouts showed no clear edge: right 62% of 39 calls since 2021, against 50% for that side on any day (Apr 10, 2021 – Sep 25, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 6,571 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (42% against 49% over 1,535 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −0.61% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +10.0% and one in 10 beyond −10.6%.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 62% of 39 calls since 2021, against 50% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 6,571 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 90-day breakouts did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a 90-day breakout?
- In 57% of 6,571 cases from Nov 16, 2017 to Oct 6, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 42% against 49% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −0.61% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +10.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −10.6% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 6,571 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 62% of 39 calls since 2021, against 50% for that side on any day).
- The −0.61% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 6, 2026: UMA +0.5% that day.
- A day later the move was −4.2%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +12.4% in 2017 (4 cases) and −1.9% in 2022 (197 cases).